Interdisciplinary Studies on the Global Rice Consumption Promotion Strategies

全球大米消费促进策略的跨学科研究

• 批准号: 16255012
• 负责人: ITO Shoichi
• 金额: $ 25.79万
• 依托单位: KYUSHU UNIVERCITY (2006)Tottori University (2004-2005)
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2004 至 2006
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16255012/
• 关键词: rice; Asia; declining demand; global crop competition; simulation for 2050; development for processed and feeding use of rice; 学校給食; 将来予測

Interdisciplinary Studies on the Global Rice Consumption Promotion StrategiesThe shrinking demand for rice in the world has been putting an enormous pressure on rice production. This is indeed approaching a critical situation for Asian agriculture. In this research, the current rice situation in each individual Asian country, simulations for rice consumption toward 2050 with 3 scenarios were conducted. The findings in this study are as follows :1. Per capita rice consumption (PCRC) in the world has been declining by 0.6% annually in the 2000s.2. If this situation continues, PCRC would be 58.9kg by 2050.3. If this declining rate doubles or triples, then the PCRC would be as small as 52.7kg or 46.2kg, individually.4. Total global rice consumption would be 535 million tons in 2050 with the smallest assumption of declining rate followed by 479 million tons and 418 million tons with doubled and tripled declining rates, respectively.5. The IRRI (2003) estimated for 2025, and this is 7% greater than the most conservative estimate in this research. An overestimate by the IRRI might be a possibility.6. Very few researches on rice consumption are done in the most Asian countries, and it is important to enhance researches in this area.7. The declining rice consumption eventually force domestic production of rice in individual Asian nations, and the Asian agriculture which depends on rice heavily may get deteriorated and lose competitiveness against the agriculture in Non-Asian areas. This may also delay improvement of poverty in the Asian rural areas.8. Japanese government should take the initiative and encourage other Asian nations to develop researches on rice consumption and food education using the ODA fund.

促进全球稻米消费的跨学科研究全球稻米需求的萎缩给稻米生产带来了巨大的压力。亚洲农业确实面临着严峻的形势。在这项研究中，每个亚洲国家目前的大米状况，模拟到2050年的大米消费量有3个场景进行。本研究的主要结果如下：1. 2000年以来，世界人均大米消费量（PCRC）每年下降0.6%。如果这种情况继续下去，到2050.3年，PCRC将达到58.9公斤。如果这个下降率增加一倍或三倍，那么PCRC将分别为52.7kg或46.2kg。2050年全球大米总消费量将为5.35亿吨，假设下降率最小，其次是4.79亿吨和4.18亿吨，下降率分别增加一倍和三倍。IRRI（2003）估计到2025年，这比这项研究中最保守的估计高出7%。IRRI可能会高估。亚洲国家对稻米消费的研究很少，加强这方面的研究很重要.大米消费量的下降最终迫使亚洲各国国内生产大米，严重依赖大米的亚洲农业可能会恶化，失去对非亚洲地区农业的竞争力。这也可能推迟亚洲农村地区贫困状况的改善。日本政府应该采取主动，鼓励其他亚洲国家利用ODA基金开展大米消费和食品教育研究。

项目成果

Economic Impacts of Aussie-China FTA (in Japanese)

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• 发表时间: 2006
• 期刊: Seibutsu-shigenn-keizai-kenkyu (Natural Resource Economics) 11
• 作者: Masaru;Kagatsume
• 通讯作者: Kagatsume

A Box-Cox Consumer Demand System Nesting the Almost Ideal Model

• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2354.2006.00400.x
• 发表时间: 2006-08
• 期刊: Wiley-Blackwell: International Economic Review
• 作者: Toshinobu Matsuda

第11回世界のコメ・国際学術調査研究報告会・シンポジウム資料「危機に瀕する世界のコメ-その2」

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• 发表时间: 2006
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第12回世界のコメ・国際学術調査研究報告会・シンポジウム 資料「危機に瀕する世界のコメ-その3」

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• 发表时间: 2007
• 作者: T.;Yasuda;ON.;Arai;Nakao M;伊東 正一
• 通讯作者: 伊東 正一

豪州・中国間自由貿易協定の動向とその経済波及効果

澳中自由贸易协定的趋势及其经济连锁反应

• 发表时间: 2006
• 期刊: 生物資源経済研究 11
• 作者: Kono H;Ito S;Hosono H.;伊澤尚宏・岡真理子・藤山英保;加賀爪 優
• 通讯作者: 加賀爪 優