World Production Potential and Marketing of Japonica Rice, II

世界粳米生产潜力及销售II

• 批准号: 10041073
• 负责人: ITO Shoichi
• 金额: $ 21.38万
• 依托单位: Tottori University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A).
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1998 至 2000
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-10041073/
• 关键词: Japonica rice; Marketing; Production potential; Production costs; World; Policies

This study was originally started in 1991 funded by the Ministry of Education focusing on japonica rice production in the U.S.Since then, except for the fiscal year 1994, this research was continuously funded and conducted until March 2001 with an expansion in research areas.World japonica rice market prices dropped substantially during the last 3 years from US$450 per metric ton of milled rice, US No. 1, to US$300 by March 2001. This sharp drop occurred during the last one year, in particular. Relatively high prices in the mid-1990's caused record production of total rice in the world consecutively from 1993 to 1999, reaching 400 million tons. Japonica rice market prices remained at a higher level much longer than the indica rice, but they finally dropped since the fall in 2000. Japanese rice imports certainly helped keep japonica rice prices relatively higher than indica rice.Production potential of japonica rice is observed in many areas in the world. In Heilongjiang Province in Chi … More na, japonica rice production increased dramatically even during a period of low market prices. The increasing speed has been slowed down ; however, the current nearly 2 million hectares of japonica rice areas could be expanded even further more in the future.The 1996 Farm Bill (FAIR) in the U.S.has been influencing rice production in the country. If the climate is appropriate and the market prices are high enough, any State can produce rice taking the advantage of "freedom to grow" policies of the Bill. In California, the Delta area, which was not considered to be a rice area, is now a good candidate for japonica rice. A GIS study in this project indicated that the Great Plains states can be a good suitable area for japonica rice production.Former Soviet countries such as Russia and Ukraine are another potential areas for increase in japonica rice production. Southern part of Brazil, Uruguay, northern part of Argentina and Paraguay keep an enormous amount of potential increase in japonica rice production. The West Africa and Madagascar are also the area for a potential increase in production.Because of these tremendous potential increase in japonica rice production, the producers in the world can meet an increase in demand rather easily indicating that world market prices would not increase much in the future. Demand for japonica rice, by the way, may increase substantially worldwide due to the sushi-boom, which began in the U.S.several years ago and now spreading all over the world. This may render Asian eating habit to penetrate into the non-Asian areas together with BSE problems in Europe. Accordingly, this may lead to more rice consumption in the world for the future. At the same time, development for feed use of rice may be important to keep up with the fast expansion of production. Less

本研究最初于1991年开始，由教育部资助，重点研究美国的粳稻生产。此后，除1994财政年度外，该研究一直得到资助并进行到2001年3月，并扩大了研究领域。在过去的3年中，世界粳稻市场价格从每公吨精米450美元大幅下降，美国第一，到2001年3月达到300美元。这种急剧下降尤其发生在过去一年。1990年代中期价格相对较高，导致1993年至1999年世界稻米总产量连续创纪录，达到4亿吨。粳稻市场价格在较高水平上维持的时间比籼稻长得多，但自2000年秋季以来终于回落。日本大米的进口确实有助于保持粳稻价格相对高于籼稻。世界许多地区都观察到粳稻的生产潜力。在中国黑龙江省 ...更多信息 即使在市场价格低的时期，粳稻产量也大幅增加。目前，日本的粳稻种植面积已接近200万公顷，但其增长速度已有所减缓。美国1996年农业法案（FAIR）对日本的水稻生产产生了影响。如果气候适宜，市场价格足够高，任何一个州都可以利用《法案》的“自由种植”政策生产稻米。在加州，三角洲地区，这是不被认为是一个水稻区，现在是一个很好的候选人粳稻。该项目中的GIS研究表明，大平原国家是一个良好的粳稻生产的适宜地区。前苏联国家，如俄罗斯和乌克兰是另一个潜在的粳稻生产增加的地区。巴西南部、乌拉圭、阿根廷北方和巴拉圭的粳稻产量仍有很大的增产潜力。西非和马达加斯加也是潜在的增产地区，由于这些地区粳稻产量的巨大增长潜力，世界生产者可以很容易地满足需求的增长，这表明世界市场价格在未来不会有太大的增长。顺便说一句，由于几年前在美国开始的寿司热潮，世界范围内对粳稻的需求可能会大幅增加，现在已经蔓延到世界各地。这可能使亚洲饮食习惯与欧洲的疯牛病问题一起渗透到非亚洲地区。因此，这可能会导致未来世界上更多的大米消费。与此同时，开发稻米的饲料用途对于跟上生产的快速扩张可能很重要。少