World Production Potential and Marketing of Japonica Rice, II

这项研究最初始于1991年，由教育部资助，重点关注美国的粳稻生产。此后，除1994财年外，这项研究一直资助并进行到2001年3月，研究领域不断扩大。近3年来，世界稻米市场价格大幅下降，从美国第一的每吨精米450美元降至2001年3月的300美元。特别是在过去的一年里，这种急剧的下降发生了。20世纪90年代中期较高的价格，使S从1993年到1999年连续创造了世界稻米总产量的纪录，达到4亿吨。糯米市场价格保持在比籼稻高得多的水平，但自2000年秋季以来最终有所回落。日本大米的进口肯定有助于保持糯米价格相对较高。世界上许多地区都观察到了糯米的生产潜力。在黑龙江省的CHI…更重要的是，即使在市场价格较低的时期，粳稻产量也大幅增加。增长速度有所放缓，但目前近200万公顷的粳稻面积未来还可能进一步扩大。美国1996年农业法案(交易会)已经对美国的水稻生产产生了影响。如果气候适宜，市场价格足够高，任何州都可以利用该法案的“自由种植”政策生产大米。在加利福尼亚州，不被认为是稻米产区的三角洲地区，现在是种植水稻的好地方。该项目中的地理信息系统研究表明，大平原国家是一个很好的适合水稻生产的地区。前苏联国家，如俄罗斯和乌克兰，是另一个具有增产潜力的地区。巴西南部、乌拉圭、阿根廷北部和巴拉圭保持着巨大的水稻增产潜力。西非和马达加斯加也是增产潜力较大的地区，由于这些地区的水稻产量潜力巨大，世界生产者可以很容易地满足需求的增加，这表明未来世界市场价格不会上涨太多。顺便说一句，由于几年前始于美国、现在遍及全球的寿司热潮，全球对粳米的需求可能会大幅增加。这可能会使亚洲人的饮食习惯渗透到非亚洲地区，并伴随着欧洲的疯牛病问题。因此，这可能会导致未来世界上更多的大米消费。同时，为了跟上产量的快速增长，开发稻米的饲料用途可能是重要的。较少

This study was originally started in 1991 funded by the Ministry of Education focusing on japonica rice production in the U.S.Since then, except for the fiscal year 1994, this research was continuously funded and conducted until March 2001 with an expansion in research areas.World japonica rice market prices dropped substantially during the last 3 years from US$450 per metric ton of milled rice, US No. 1, to US$300 by March 2001. This sharp drop occurred during the last one year, in particular. Relatively high prices in the mid-1990's caused record production of total rice in the world consecutively from 1993 to 1999, reaching 400 million tons. Japonica rice market prices remained at a higher level much longer than the indica rice, but they finally dropped since the fall in 2000. Japanese rice imports certainly helped keep japonica rice prices relatively higher than indica rice.Production potential of japonica rice is observed in many areas in the world. In Heilongjiang Province in Chi … More na, japonica rice production increased dramatically even during a period of low market prices. The increasing speed has been slowed down ; however, the current nearly 2 million hectares of japonica rice areas could be expanded even further more in the future.The 1996 Farm Bill (FAIR) in the U.S.has been influencing rice production in the country. If the climate is appropriate and the market prices are high enough, any State can produce rice taking the advantage of "freedom to grow" policies of the Bill. In California, the Delta area, which was not considered to be a rice area, is now a good candidate for japonica rice. A GIS study in this project indicated that the Great Plains states can be a good suitable area for japonica rice production.Former Soviet countries such as Russia and Ukraine are another potential areas for increase in japonica rice production. Southern part of Brazil, Uruguay, northern part of Argentina and Paraguay keep an enormous amount of potential increase in japonica rice production. The West Africa and Madagascar are also the area for a potential increase in production.Because of these tremendous potential increase in japonica rice production, the producers in the world can meet an increase in demand rather easily indicating that world market prices would not increase much in the future. Demand for japonica rice, by the way, may increase substantially worldwide due to the sushi-boom, which began in the U.S.several years ago and now spreading all over the world. This may render Asian eating habit to penetrate into the non-Asian areas together with BSE problems in Europe. Accordingly, this may lead to more rice consumption in the world for the future. At the same time, development for feed use of rice may be important to keep up with the fast expansion of production. Less