World Production Potential and Marketing of Japonica Rice, II

本研究最初于1991年开始，由教育部资助，重点研究美国的粳稻生产。此后，除了1994财政年度外，本研究一直得到资助并进行到2001年3月，研究领域不断扩大。世界粳稻市场价格在过去三年中大幅下降，从每吨精米450美元（US No. 1）到2001年3月的300美元。这种急剧下降尤其发生在过去一年。20世纪90年代中期相对较高的价格使1993年至1999年世界大米总产量连续创下历史新高，达到4亿吨。与籼稻相比，粳稻的市场价格在较长时间内维持在较高水平，但最终在2000年秋季后下跌。日本大米进口无疑有助于粳稻价格相对高于籼稻。世界上许多地区都观察到粳稻的生产潜力。在中国黑龙江省，即使在市场价格较低的时期，粳稻产量也大幅增加。增长的速度放慢了；然而，目前近200万公顷的粳稻种植面积在未来可能会进一步扩大。美国1996年的农业法案（FAIR）一直影响着该国的大米生产。如果气候适宜，市场价格足够高，任何国家都可以利用该法案的“自由种植”政策生产大米。在加利福尼亚，以前不被认为是水稻种植区的三角洲地区，现在成为了粳稻的好选择。该项目的GIS研究表明，大平原各州可能是粳稻生产的良好适宜地区。俄罗斯和乌克兰等前苏联国家是粳稻产量增加的另一个潜在地区。巴西南部、乌拉圭、阿根廷北部和巴拉圭保持着巨大的粳稻增产潜力。西非和马达加斯加也是产量可能增加的地区。由于粳稻产量的巨大增长潜力，世界上的生产者可以很容易地满足需求的增长，这表明未来世界市场价格不会上涨太多。顺便说一下，由于几年前在美国兴起的寿司热潮，对粳稻的需求可能会在全球范围内大幅增加，而现在这股热潮正蔓延到全世界。这可能会导致亚洲人的饮食习惯与欧洲的疯牛病问题一起渗透到非亚洲地区。因此，这可能会导致未来世界大米消费量增加。与此同时，为了跟上产量的快速增长，水稻饲料利用的发展可能很重要。少

This study was originally started in 1991 funded by the Ministry of Education focusing on japonica rice production in the U.S.Since then, except for the fiscal year 1994, this research was continuously funded and conducted until March 2001 with an expansion in research areas.World japonica rice market prices dropped substantially during the last 3 years from US$450 per metric ton of milled rice, US No. 1, to US$300 by March 2001. This sharp drop occurred during the last one year, in particular. Relatively high prices in the mid-1990's caused record production of total rice in the world consecutively from 1993 to 1999, reaching 400 million tons. Japonica rice market prices remained at a higher level much longer than the indica rice, but they finally dropped since the fall in 2000. Japanese rice imports certainly helped keep japonica rice prices relatively higher than indica rice.Production potential of japonica rice is observed in many areas in the world. In Heilongjiang Province in Chi … More na, japonica rice production increased dramatically even during a period of low market prices. The increasing speed has been slowed down ; however, the current nearly 2 million hectares of japonica rice areas could be expanded even further more in the future.The 1996 Farm Bill (FAIR) in the U.S.has been influencing rice production in the country. If the climate is appropriate and the market prices are high enough, any State can produce rice taking the advantage of "freedom to grow" policies of the Bill. In California, the Delta area, which was not considered to be a rice area, is now a good candidate for japonica rice. A GIS study in this project indicated that the Great Plains states can be a good suitable area for japonica rice production.Former Soviet countries such as Russia and Ukraine are another potential areas for increase in japonica rice production. Southern part of Brazil, Uruguay, northern part of Argentina and Paraguay keep an enormous amount of potential increase in japonica rice production. The West Africa and Madagascar are also the area for a potential increase in production.Because of these tremendous potential increase in japonica rice production, the producers in the world can meet an increase in demand rather easily indicating that world market prices would not increase much in the future. Demand for japonica rice, by the way, may increase substantially worldwide due to the sushi-boom, which began in the U.S.several years ago and now spreading all over the world. This may render Asian eating habit to penetrate into the non-Asian areas together with BSE problems in Europe. Accordingly, this may lead to more rice consumption in the world for the future. At the same time, development for feed use of rice may be important to keep up with the fast expansion of production. Less