Interdisciplinary Studies on Long-run Global Grain Supply and Demand Estimates

全球粮食供需形势进入新的一年。尽管世界人口增加，但粮食产量不一定会增加。自1990年以来，世界小麦产量一直停滞在6亿吨左右，1999年以来，水稻产量也停滞在6亿吨左右。另一方面，近年来玉米产量不断增长，超过了小麦产量，大豆产量也是如此。大豆产量目前超过2亿吨，在不久的将来可能会超过4亿吨的水稻产量。根据本研究的结果，世界上每一种粮食的生产潜力并不像“人口爆炸”和“全球资源有限”那样悲观，但由于生产技术创新的日益重要，地区和国家之间的生产竞争和贸易竞争可能会更加严重。需求竞争也很关键。对小麦和大米的需求减弱可能导致市场价格下降，从而导致产量减少。因此，技术落后的地区或国家可能会失去竞争并面临产量下降。农业产业和农业综合企业部门应该意识到未来将出现的这种危急情况。在这项研究中，使用网站提供信息是另一个重要的角色。本研究建立了《世界粮食统计与图表》。从1960年至今，它为大约200个地区和国家提供了世界主要谷物（大米、小麦、玉米和大豆）和牲畜产品（肉鸡、火鸡、奶酪、猪肉和牛肉）的供需。原始数据来自美国农业部的PS&D在线。在本次研究中，我们对数据进行了重新排列，既显示了数字数据，也显示了图形，这样观众就可以很容易地识别出情况随时间的变化。该网站由四种语言组成；日语、英语、西班牙语和汉语。该网站还提供了主要谷物的世界市场价格。地址是：http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp Less

The global grain supply and demand situation has been facing a new ear. Despite the increases in world population, production of a grain may not necessarily increase. The world wheat production has been stagnated at around 600 million metric ton level since 1990, so as the rice production since 1999. On the other hand, corn production has been continuously increasing surpassing the volume of wheat production during the recent years, and so as the soybean production. Soybean production, currently over 200 million metric tons, may surpass the rice production of 400 million metric tons some time in the near future.According to the results of this research, production potential of each individual grain in the world is not pessimistic as trumpeted with "population explosion" and "limits of global resources," but production competition and trade competition among the regions and countries may become more serious due to increasingly vital technology innovation for production. Demand competiti … More on is also critical. The weakening demand for wheat and rice may be causing lower market prices leading to less production. Therefore, a region or country where technology is getting behind may lose competition and face decreases in production. The agricultural industries and the agribusiness sectors should be aware of this critical situation to come in the future.In this research, providing information using the web-site was another important role. World Food Statistics & Graphics has been set up in this research. It provided world supply and demand of the major grains (rice, wheat, corn and soybeans) and livestock products (broiler, turkey, cheese, pork and beef) for about 200 regions and countries from 1960 through current. The original data is from the US Department of Agriculture's PS&D Online. In this research, the data have been rearranged and shown both numerical data as well as graphics, so that the viewers can easily recognize the change in situation over time. The web-site is composed of four languages ; Japanese, English, Spanish and Chinese. World market prices for the major grains are also provided in the web-site. The address is :http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp Less