Interdisciplinary Studies on Long-run Global Grain Supply and Demand Estimates

全球长期粮食供需预测的跨学科研究

• 批准号: 12460098
• 负责人: ITO Shoichi
• 金额: $ 9.09万
• 依托单位: National University Corporation Tottori University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2000 至 2003
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-12460098/
• 关键词: grains; world; supply and demand; long-run estimates; interdisciplinary studies; statistics

The global grain supply and demand situation has been facing a new ear. Despite the increases in world population, production of a grain may not necessarily increase. The world wheat production has been stagnated at around 600 million metric ton level since 1990, so as the rice production since 1999. On the other hand, corn production has been continuously increasing surpassing the volume of wheat production during the recent years, and so as the soybean production. Soybean production, currently over 200 million metric tons, may surpass the rice production of 400 million metric tons some time in the near future.According to the results of this research, production potential of each individual grain in the world is not pessimistic as trumpeted with "population explosion" and "limits of global resources," but production competition and trade competition among the regions and countries may become more serious due to increasingly vital technology innovation for production. Demand competiti … More on is also critical. The weakening demand for wheat and rice may be causing lower market prices leading to less production. Therefore, a region or country where technology is getting behind may lose competition and face decreases in production. The agricultural industries and the agribusiness sectors should be aware of this critical situation to come in the future.In this research, providing information using the web-site was another important role. World Food Statistics & Graphics has been set up in this research. It provided world supply and demand of the major grains (rice, wheat, corn and soybeans) and livestock products (broiler, turkey, cheese, pork and beef) for about 200 regions and countries from 1960 through current. The original data is from the US Department of Agriculture's PS&D Online. In this research, the data have been rearranged and shown both numerical data as well as graphics, so that the viewers can easily recognize the change in situation over time. The web-site is composed of four languages ; Japanese, English, Spanish and Chinese. World market prices for the major grains are also provided in the web-site. The address is :http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp Less

全球粮食供求形势已进入一个新的时期。尽管世界人口在增加，但谷物的产量不一定会增加。自1990年以来，世界小麦产量一直停滞在6亿吨左右，自1999年以来，大米产量也是如此。另一方面，近年来玉米产量持续增长，超过了小麦产量，大豆产量也是如此。大豆产量目前已超过2亿吨，在不久的将来可能会超过4亿吨的水稻产量。根据这项研究的结果，世界上每一种粮食的生产潜力并不像“人口爆炸”和“全球资源有限”所鼓吹的那样悲观，“但由于对生产越来越重要的技术创新，地区和国家之间的生产竞争和贸易竞争可能会更加激烈。需求竞争 ...更多信息 也是至关重要的。对小麦和大米的需求减弱可能导致市场价格下跌，从而导致产量减少。因此，技术落后的地区或国家可能会失去竞争力，面临产量下降。农业产业和农业综合企业部门应该意识到未来的严峻形势。在本研究中，利用网站提供信息是另一个重要作用。本研究建立了《世界粮食统计与图表》。它提供了从1960年至今约200个地区和国家的主要谷物（大米、小麦、玉米和大豆）和畜产品（肉鸡、火鸡、奶酪、猪肉和牛肉）的世界供求情况。原始数据来自美国农业部的PS&D在线。在这项研究中，数据已被重新安排，并显示数字数据以及图形，使观众可以很容易地认识到随着时间的推移情况的变化。该网站由四种语言组成：日语、英语、西班牙语和中文。该网站还提供了主要谷物的世界市场价格。The Address is：http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp小

项目成果

SBS米輸入マーク・アップの変動に対する国内相場の影響レベルに関する研究

国内市场价格对SBS大米进口加成变化影响程度研究

• 发表时间: 2003
• 期刊: 農業経済論集 54
• 作者: 蔡家声;伊東正一;笠原浩三
• 通讯作者: 笠原浩三

Economic Development and Food Security in Japanand Korea, Prospects of Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development

日韩经济发展与粮食安全、农业农村可持续发展前景

• 发表时间: 2003
• 作者: Kato;Toshiyuki;Jianping Zhang;Toshiyuki Kako;伊東正一;Shoichi Ito;加古敏之;Toshiyuki Kako
• 通讯作者: Toshiyuki Kako

蔡家声, 伊東正一, 笠原浩三: "SBS米輸入マーク・アップの変動に対する国内相場の影響レベルに関する研究"農業経済論集. 54. 115-120 (2003)

Kasei Cai，Shoichi Ito，Kozo Kasahara：“国内市场价格对SBS大米进口加价波动的影响程度研究”农业经济杂志54。115-120（2003）。

伊東正一: "生産と在庫の減少で厳しさ増す世界の穀物需給"農業. 9月号. 56-60 (2003)

伊藤庄一：“由于产量和库存下降，全球粮食供需形势日益严峻”，《农业》9 月号，2003 年。

伊東正一: "新時代に入った世界のコメ需給(第10回):SBS米とアメリカの今年産予測"食糧振興. 68. 28-33 (2000)

Shoichi Ito：“新时代的世界稻米供需（第10版）：SBS稻米和美国今年的产量预测”《食品促进》68. 28-33（2000）。