Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the International Grain Reserve Scheme

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The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the international grain reserve scheme from the viewpoints of food security and stabilization of grain prices by building a theoretical and empirical framework and employing simulation analyses using it. First, we developed a theoretical framework to evaluate the effects of the scheme on food security and price stabilization. Secondly, a government's decision-making model was developed by assuming that the government can control the reserve amounts from the viewpoint of food security. Thirdly, we built a multi-regional simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of the international grain reserve scheme by combining the decision-making model with a spatial equilibrium model for imperfectly competitive international grain trade using the Complementarity Method. Fourthly, considering production volatility caused by climate changes, we simulated the effects of the reserve scheme on each country's supply, demand, imports, exports, and prices. Through these analyses, we evaluated the effectiveness of the international grain reserve scheme proposed by the Japanese government and pointed out the challenges to be solved in the future.