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A Study of Resource and Environment Policy and Dynamic Gains from Trade

资源环境政策与贸易动态收益研究

基本信息

批准号：
16530118
负责人：
OHTA Hiroshi
金额：
$ 1.09万
依托单位：
Kobe University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2006
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

The purpose of this research is to theoretically analyze whether or not an economy being only endowed with a natural resource as the source of income can survive over the long time. Developing countries may not secure their sustainability if they try to live solely on selling excavated natural resources to industrial countries. They would naturally think of any method of self dependence. Is it really viable?The analytical model used in this three year research period has the following characteristics. 1. Two types of stock variables, a renewable resource and other physical capital, are considered. 2. A composite commodity produced by using these two stocks is utilized for consumption and investment. 3. The magnitude of changes in stock levels is subject to uncertainty. The first characteristic is the device for theoretically expressing the requirement of transforming natural resource to other physical capital before the resource completely depletes, since it seems meaningless as an eco … More nomic problem if the resource, though renewable, can be assumed ultimately non-exhaustible (if the probability of exhaustion is zero for sure, sustainability does not constitute an economic problem apart from actual levels of instantaneous excavation of the resource). The second characteristic is to secure the mechanism of optimally allocating the produced commodity into consumption and investment for physical capital accumulation in order to examine the sustainability under the assumption that the economy is optimally managed. Finally, two types of uncertainty are considered in the last characteristic. One addresses for continuous changes in the level of stock as time elapses and the other for jumps in stock with discrete time interval. The former case is modeled by using a Brownian motion and the latter by Poison process. Brownian motion is the best device to express the situation in which the variance of stock level changes will be continuously wider as time goes by even if the present size of stock is certainly observed and the immediately next time period will show a very little change. We consider, on the other hand, a compound Poison distribution for treating various lengths of intervals between changes with meaningful sizes occurring randomly rather than with infinitesimally small sizes happening continuously over time.The main results are that (1) we have proved the existence of steady state in this economy under certainty, namely without the first characteristic of the model, (2) the optimal excavation level of the resource under uncertainty is smaller than that under certainty but the optimal level of resource consumption survives the introduction of uncertainty, and (3) we have establish several propositions on the ruin and surviving probabilities of this economy. Less

本研究的目的是从理论上分析一个经济体如果只拥有作为收入来源的自然资源，能否长期生存下去。如果发展中国家试图仅仅依靠向工业化国家出售挖掘的自然资源来维持生存，它们就可能无法确保其可持续性。他们自然会想到任何自力更生的方法。它真的可行吗？在这三年的研究期间，所使用的分析模型具有以下特点。1.两种类型的股票变量，可再生资源和其他实物资本，被认为是。2.利用这两种库存生产的复合商品用于消费和投资。3.库存水平的变化幅度存在不确定性。第一个特点是在理论上表达在资源完全耗尽之前将自然资源转化为其他物质资本的要求的装置，因为它作为一种经济学似乎毫无意义。 ...更多信息如果资源虽然是可再生的，但可以假定最终是不可耗尽的（如果耗尽的可能性肯定为零，那么除了资源的实际瞬时开采水平之外，可持续性并不构成经济问题）。第二个特点是，为了在经济得到最优管理的假设下考察可持续性，确保将生产的商品最优地分配给消费和投资以实现物质资本积累的机制。最后，在最后一个特征中考虑了两种类型的不确定性。一个地址为连续变化的水平，随着时间的推移和其他跳跃的股票与离散的时间间隔。前一种情况是用布朗运动来模拟的，后者是用Poison过程来模拟的。布朗运动是表达这样一种情况的最佳工具，即即使当前的库存量确实被观测到，库存水平变化的方差也会随着时间的推移而不断扩大，而紧接着的下一个时间段将显示出很小的变化。另一方面，我们考虑了一个复合Poison分布，它处理了有意义的大小随机发生而不是无限小的大小随时间连续发生的变化之间的不同长度的间隔.主要结果是：（1）我们证明了在确定性下，即在没有模型的第一特征的情况下，这种经济中存在稳态，（2）不确定性下的最优资源开采水平小于确定性下的最优资源开采水平，但最优资源消耗水平在引入不确定性后仍然存在;（3）我们建立了几个关于这种经济的破产概率和生存概率的命题。少