Development of Estimation Method for Loss of Human Lives Due to Catastrophic Urban Disasters

城市灾难性灾害造成的人员伤亡估计方法的开发

基本信息

批准号：
05558050
负责人：
KAWATA Yoshiaki
金额：
$ 4.35万
依托单位：
KYOTO UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Developmental Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
1993
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1993 至 1995
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-05558050/
关键词：
Catastrophic disaster Urban disaster Loss of human lives Lifeline Urban space Compound disaster The Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster 死者数阪神・淡路大地震直下型地震人口密度

项目摘要

Rapid urbanization has increased disaster vulnerability in urban areas in Japan. As shown in the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disasters, the loss of human lives are extremely huge in urban disasters in which several scenarios are not predictable before the disaster. This is mainly due to complex structure of our urban society such as densely distributed wooden and old houses, much crowded passengers at every railway and subway station in rush hours and lifeline network systems with a little redundancy. Catastrophic urban disasters are characterized by overpopulation and dense concetration of energy and information which have not maintained their balance with investment for disaster reduction or prevention. The population density in large cities of over 1 million residents is the most important factor which amplifies the loss of human lives as well as property damage. The maximum risk to life can be estimated with the function of lifespan which expresses a disaster prevention force. The loss of human lives due to the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster in January 17,1995 was estimated by this method. The estimated maximum number of loss of lives was 1.33 times of the number recorded at Kobe, Nishinomiya and Ashiya cities. The earthquake occurrence at 5 : 46 am.was very fortunate because urban activity did not start yet. The disaster proposed us much data about scenarios of damage. From the view points of statistics, the railway accidents due to strong seismic acceleration of the earthquake brought almost minimum human damage.

快速的城市化增加了日本城市地区的灾难脆弱性。如巨大的汉辛 - 阿瓦吉地震灾难所示，在城市灾害中，人类生命的丧失极为巨大，在城市灾难中，在灾难发生前几种情况是无法预测的。这主要是由于我们的城市社会的复杂结构，例如密集的木制和旧房屋，在高峰时段的每条铁路和地铁站都有很多拥挤的乘客，以及具有少量冗余的生命线网络系统。灾难性的城市灾难的特征是人口过多和能源和信息的密集态度，这些能量和信息尚未在减少灾难或预防方面保持平衡。超过100万居民的大城市的人口密度是扩大人类生命和财产损失的最重要因素。可以通过表达预防灾难的力量的寿命功能来估计生命的最大风险。通过这种方法估计，由于1995年1月17日发生巨大的Hanshin-Awaji地震灾难，人类生命的丧失。估计的最大生命损失次数为在科比，Nishinomiya和Ashiya城市记录的数量的1.33倍。地震发生在凌晨5：46。非常幸运，因为城市活动尚未开始。灾难向我们提出了有关损害方案的大量数据。从统计数据的角度来看，由于地震的强烈地震加速而引起的铁路事故几乎造成了最小的人类损害。