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Development of Loss Estimation Method and Emergency Management with Geographic Information Systems

地理信息系统损失估算方法与应急管理的发展

基本信息

批准号：
08508001
负责人：
KAWATA Yoshiaki
金额：
$ 23.81万
依托单位：
KYOTO UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
财政年份：
1996
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1996 至 1998
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

We estimated the total loss of human lives and the injured due to large-scale earthquake disasters at every hour due to six reasons such as collapse of houses and railway accidents. It was found that every component has own maximum peak of the number of loss of human lives and the injured. The total human damage is recorded at around 8 a.m. and others at noon and in the evening. The occurrence time of the Hyogoken-nambu earthquake of 5 : 46 a.m. is not lucky time from the view point of human casualty. In the indirect loss due to disaster, there are two kinds of losses such as economic loss and human lives one. The Latter is loss of social value in human lives. The economic loss due to the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster was estimated about two trillion yen from the analysis of decrease of electric power supply in the damaged area. From this point, the reconstruction of economics was over. The relationship between GRP and average human life span was applicable to estimate the social value loss of human lives. In the analysis, traffic accident data were used to account the insurance cost of the dead and the injured. Due to the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster, loss of social value of human lives was about two trillion yen. Human casualty usually continue for a long time. From data analysis of questionnaire on social problems, the effect of disaster continues about 18 years. Therefore, the integration of the effect shows that the loss of human lives is correspond to about ten trillion yen. It was concluded that reducing human damage leads to decrease of total loss. Moreover, the next generation GIS was also developed. It is applicable to estimation of loss of human lives due to earthquake, but the accuracy is not so good due to rough prediction of seismic ground motion.

根据房屋倒塌、铁路事故等6种原因，每小时估算大规模地震灾害造成的人员伤亡总数。研究发现，每一个组成部分都有自己的最大伤亡人数峰值。所有人为破坏记录在上午8时左右，其他人在中午和晚上。从人员伤亡的角度来看，上午5点46分发生的兵库县南部地震不是一个幸运的时间。在灾害造成的间接损失中，有经济损失和人员伤亡两种。后者是人类生活中社会价值的丧失。坂神淡路大地震造成的经济损失，从受灾地区电力供应减少的分析来看，估计约为2万亿日元。至此，经济学的重建就结束了。GRP与人类平均寿命的关系适用于估算人类生命的社会价值损失。在分析中，交通事故数据被用来计算死亡和受伤的保险费用。由于坂神淡路大地震灾害，人类生命的社会价值损失约为2万亿日元。人员伤亡通常会持续很长一段时间。从社会问题问卷调查的数据分析，灾害的影响持续了大约18年。因此，综合效果显示，人类生命的损失相当于约10万亿日元。得出的结论是，减少人为破坏可以减少总损失。此外，还开发了下一代地理信息系统。它适用于地震造成的人员伤亡的估计，但由于地震动的预测较为粗略，精度不高。