Development of Loss Estimation Method and Emergency Management with Geographic Information Systems

地理信息系统损失估算方法与应急管理的发展

基本信息

批准号：
08508001
负责人：
KAWATA Yoshiaki
金额：
$ 23.81万
依托单位：
KYOTO UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
财政年份：
1996
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1996 至 1998
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

We estimated the total loss of human lives and the injured due to large-scale earthquake disasters at every hour due to six reasons such as collapse of houses and railway accidents. It was found that every component has own maximum peak of the number of loss of human lives and the injured. The total human damage is recorded at around 8 a.m. and others at noon and in the evening. The occurrence time of the Hyogoken-nambu earthquake of 5 : 46 a.m. is not lucky time from the view point of human casualty. In the indirect loss due to disaster, there are two kinds of losses such as economic loss and human lives one. The Latter is loss of social value in human lives. The economic loss due to the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster was estimated about two trillion yen from the analysis of decrease of electric power supply in the damaged area. From this point, the reconstruction of economics was over. The relationship between GRP and average human life span was applicable to estimate the social value loss of human lives. In the analysis, traffic accident data were used to account the insurance cost of the dead and the injured. Due to the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster, loss of social value of human lives was about two trillion yen. Human casualty usually continue for a long time. From data analysis of questionnaire on social problems, the effect of disaster continues about 18 years. Therefore, the integration of the effect shows that the loss of human lives is correspond to about ten trillion yen. It was concluded that reducing human damage leads to decrease of total loss. Moreover, the next generation GIS was also developed. It is applicable to estimation of loss of human lives due to earthquake, but the accuracy is not so good due to rough prediction of seismic ground motion.

我们估计，由于六个原因，例如房屋和铁路事故，每小时，人类生命的总损失和受伤的人数每小时受伤。发现每个组成部分都有人类生命损失和受伤人数的最大峰值。人类损害的总损害记录在上午8点左右，其他人则在中午和晚上记录。从人类伤亡的角度来看，凌晨5：46的Hyogoken-nambu地震发生时间并不幸运。在灾难造成的间接损失中，有两种损失，例如经济损失和人类生命。后者是人类生活中失去社会价值。据估计，由于损坏地区的电力供应减少，据估计，由于汉辛 - 阿瓦吉地震灾难造成的经济损失估计约为两万亿日元。从这一点开始，经济学的重建已经结束。 GRP与平均人类寿命之间的关系适用于估计人类生命的社会价值损失。在分析中，使用交通事故数据来说明死者和受伤者的保险费用。由于汉斯·阿瓦吉（Hanshin-Awaji）的巨大地震灾难，人类生命的社会价值丧失约为2万亿日元。人伤亡通常会持续很长时间。从问卷的数据分析对社会问题，灾难的影响持续了大约18年。因此，效果的整合表明，人类生命的丧失对应于大约10万亿日元。得出的结论是，减少人类损害会导致总损失减少。此外，还开发了下一代GIS。它适用于估计由于地震而导致的人类生命丧失，但是由于地震地面运动的粗略预测，准确性并不是那么好。