Development of Loss Estimation Method and Emergency Management with Geographic Information Systems

我们根据房屋倒塌、铁路事故等6种原因，以每小时为单位估算了大规模地震灾害造成的总伤亡人数。结果表明，各成分均有各自的最大伤亡人数峰值。总的人员损失记录在上午8点左右，其他记录在中午和晚上。从人员伤亡的角度来看，凌晨5点46分发生的小古县南部地震并不是一个幸运的时间。在灾害间接损失中，有两种损失，一种是经济损失，另一种是人命损失。后者是人类生活中社会价值的丧失。据分析，阪神-川地大地震造成的经济损失约为2万亿日元。至此，经济学的重建就结束了。GRP与人类平均寿命的关系适用于估算人类生命的社会价值损失。在分析中，使用交通事故数据来计算死者和伤者的保险费用。由于阪神-浅地大地震灾害，人类生命的社会价值损失约为2万亿日元。人员伤亡通常会持续很长时间。从社会问题问卷的数据分析来看，灾害的影响持续了18年左右。因此，综合效果表明，人类生命的损失相当于10万亿日元左右。结论是，减少人为损害，减少总损失。此外，还开发了下一代地理信息系统。它适用于地震人员伤亡的估计，但由于对地震地震动的粗略预测，精度不高。

We estimated the total loss of human lives and the injured due to large-scale earthquake disasters at every hour due to six reasons such as collapse of houses and railway accidents. It was found that every component has own maximum peak of the number of loss of human lives and the injured. The total human damage is recorded at around 8 a.m. and others at noon and in the evening. The occurrence time of the Hyogoken-nambu earthquake of 5 : 46 a.m. is not lucky time from the view point of human casualty. In the indirect loss due to disaster, there are two kinds of losses such as economic loss and human lives one. The Latter is loss of social value in human lives. The economic loss due to the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster was estimated about two trillion yen from the analysis of decrease of electric power supply in the damaged area. From this point, the reconstruction of economics was over. The relationship between GRP and average human life span was applicable to estimate the social value loss of human lives. In the analysis, traffic accident data were used to account the insurance cost of the dead and the injured. Due to the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster, loss of social value of human lives was about two trillion yen. Human casualty usually continue for a long time. From data analysis of questionnaire on social problems, the effect of disaster continues about 18 years. Therefore, the integration of the effect shows that the loss of human lives is correspond to about ten trillion yen. It was concluded that reducing human damage leads to decrease of total loss. Moreover, the next generation GIS was also developed. It is applicable to estimation of loss of human lives due to earthquake, but the accuracy is not so good due to rough prediction of seismic ground motion.