Development of Loss Estimation Method and Emergency Management with Geographic Information Systems

我们估计了由于房屋倒塌、铁路事故等六个原因造成的大地震灾害每小时造成的人员伤亡总数。发现每个部件都有各自的人员伤亡人数的最大峰值。总的人员伤亡记录是在上午8点左右。其他人在中午和晚上。仙谷-南部地震的发生时间为凌晨5点46分。从人类伤亡的角度来看，这并不是一个幸运的时刻。在灾害间接损失中，有经济损失和生命损失两种。后者是人的生命中社会价值的丧失。通过对受灾地区电力供应减少的分析，估计阪神-阿瓦济大地震造成的经济损失约为2万亿日元。从这一点来看，经济学的重建已经结束。GRP与人的平均寿命的关系适用于估算人的生命的社会价值损失。在分析中，使用了交通事故数据来核算死伤者的保险费用。由于阪神-Awaji大地震灾害，人类生命的社会价值损失约为2万亿日元。人类伤亡通常会持续很长一段时间。从社会问题问卷的数据分析来看，灾害的影响持续了大约18年。因此，综合效应显示，人命损失相当于约十万亿日元。由此得出结论：减少人员伤害会导致总损失的减少。此外，还开发了新一代地理信息系统。它适用于估计地震造成的人员伤亡，但由于地震地面运动的粗略预测，精度不是很好。

We estimated the total loss of human lives and the injured due to large-scale earthquake disasters at every hour due to six reasons such as collapse of houses and railway accidents. It was found that every component has own maximum peak of the number of loss of human lives and the injured. The total human damage is recorded at around 8 a.m. and others at noon and in the evening. The occurrence time of the Hyogoken-nambu earthquake of 5 : 46 a.m. is not lucky time from the view point of human casualty. In the indirect loss due to disaster, there are two kinds of losses such as economic loss and human lives one. The Latter is loss of social value in human lives. The economic loss due to the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster was estimated about two trillion yen from the analysis of decrease of electric power supply in the damaged area. From this point, the reconstruction of economics was over. The relationship between GRP and average human life span was applicable to estimate the social value loss of human lives. In the analysis, traffic accident data were used to account the insurance cost of the dead and the injured. Due to the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster, loss of social value of human lives was about two trillion yen. Human casualty usually continue for a long time. From data analysis of questionnaire on social problems, the effect of disaster continues about 18 years. Therefore, the integration of the effect shows that the loss of human lives is correspond to about ten trillion yen. It was concluded that reducing human damage leads to decrease of total loss. Moreover, the next generation GIS was also developed. It is applicable to estimation of loss of human lives due to earthquake, but the accuracy is not so good due to rough prediction of seismic ground motion.