A Theoretical and Empirical Study on Structural Change in Flow-of-Funds of the Japanese Economy in the 1990s

20世纪90年代日本经济资金流结构变化的理论与实证研究

基本信息

批准号：
16330038
负责人：
OGAWA Kazuo
金额：
$ 4.74万
依托单位：
Osaka University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2006
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

We investigated the structural change in flow of-funds of the Japanese economy during the 1990s from the following three viewpoints: bank behavior, firm behavior and bank-firm relationship. We summarize our main findings of our research.1. Bank BehaviorFirst, we investigated the determinants of banks' excess reserves under the quantity easing policy adopted in the period of March in 2001 to March in 2006. We estimated the demand function for excess reserves by commercial banks derived from expected profit maximization by banks, using bank panel data set. We found that banks held excess reserves due to fragile financial system and almost zero interest rate situations. Secondly, we investigated the determinants of lending attitude of financial institutions reported in the BOJ Tankan survey. Estimation was conducted separately by firm size and industry. In particular we were interested in the impact of deteriorating balance sheet of banks on lending attitude of banks. We found that mounti … More ng non-performing loans in the banking sector led to severity of lending attitude of financial institutions.2. Firm BehaviorFirst, it should be noted that external finance premium for the firm crucially hinges upon the degree of asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers or agency cost. The external finance premium is intrinsically unobservable, but we made an attempt to estimate it by using Bayesian statistical tools. We found that the agency cost was lowered in the bubble period and then it increased rapidly after the bubble collapse. We also found that business investment was closely related to the movement of agency cost. Second, we investigated what kind of information business investment responds to when the firm adjusts its investment plans. In particular we examined whether investment revision is sensitive to evaluation in stock market. We found that revision of business investment is sensitive to revision of sales and profits rather than stock market events.3. Bank-Firm RelationshipIn Japan it is often argued that information of the firm is concentrated on one bank or its main bank. Although information of the firm is concentrated on its main bank, the firm has in many cases multiple bank-firm relationships. We investigated why the firm has multiple relations with banks based on micro-data of large listed firms and small unlisted firms. We found that balance sheet conditions of the main bank as well as its affiliated firms affected the number of bank relations. Less

我们从以下三个观点：银行行为，企业行为和银行公司的关系调查了1990年代日本经济基金流量的结构变化。我们总结了我们研究的主要发现。1。银行行为首先，我们调查了2001年3月至2006年3月通过的宽松政策的银行超额储量的决定者。我们估计了使用银行数据集的银行最大化的商业银行的超过储备金的需求功能。我们发现，由于金融体系脆弱和零利率情况，持有的银行超过了储备。其次，我们调查了Boj Tankan调查中报告的金融机构贷款尝试的决定者。估计是按公司规模和行业分别进行的。特别是我们对确定银行资产负债表对银行贷款态度的影响感兴趣。我们发现，银行业中更多不良贷款的Mounti导致了金融机构的贷款企图严重性。2。首先，应注意的是，公司的外部财务溢价完全取决于贷方与借款人或代理成本之间的不对称信息程度。外部财务保费本质上是无法观察的，但是我们试图通过使用贝叶斯统计工具来估算它。我们发现，机构成本在泡沫时期降低，然后在泡沫崩溃后迅速增加。我们还发现，商业投资与代理成本的移动密切相关。其次，我们调查了当公司调整其投资计划时，我们研究了什么样的信息业务投资。特别是我们检查了投资修订是否对股票市场评估敏感。我们发现，商业投资的修订对销售和利润的修订敏感，而不是股票市场事件。3。日本的银行公司关系中，经常认为该公司的信息集中在一家银行或其主要银行上。尽管该公司的信息集中在其主要银行上，但该公司在许多情况下都有多种银行公司的关系。我们调查了为什么该公司根据大型上市公司和小型不居住公司的微型数据与银行有多种关系。我们发现，主银行及其关联公司的资产负债表条件影响了银行关系的数量。较少的