A Theoretical and Empirical Study on Structural Change in Flow-of-Funds of the Japanese Economy in the 1990s

我们从银行行为、企业行为和银企关系三个角度考察了20世纪90年代日本经济中资金流的结构性变化。我们总结了我们研究的主要发现。银行行为首先，我们调查了2001年3月至2006年3月期间采取的数量宽松政策下银行超额准备金的决定因素。我们使用银行面板数据集估计了商业银行超额准备金需求函数，得出了银行预期利润最大化的结果。我们发现，由于脆弱的金融体系和近乎零利率的情况，银行持有超额准备金。其次，我们考察了日本央行短观调查中报告的金融机构贷款态度的决定因素。估计分别按公司规模和行业进行。特别是，我们对银行资产负债表恶化对银行放贷态度的影响感兴趣。我们发现芒蒂·…银行业不良贷款较多，导致金融机构放贷态度严重。公司行为首先，应该指出的是，公司的外部融资溢价关键取决于贷款人和借款人之间信息不对称的程度或代理成本。外部融资溢价本质上是不可观测的，但我们试图使用贝叶斯统计工具来估计它。我们发现，代理成本在泡沫时期有所降低，泡沫破裂后代理成本迅速上升。我们还发现，企业投资与代理成本的变动密切相关。其次，我们考察了企业在调整投资计划时，企业投资对哪种信息的反应。特别是，我们考察了投资修正是否对股票市场的评估敏感。我们发现，企业投资的修正对销售和利润的修正更为敏感，而对股市事件的修正并不敏感。银企关系在日本，人们经常争辩说，公司的信息集中在一家银行或其主要银行。虽然公司的信息集中在其主要银行，但在许多情况下，公司有多个银企关系。基于大型上市公司和小型非上市公司的微观数据，我们考察了公司与银行之间存在多重关系的原因。我们发现，主要银行及其附属公司的资产负债表状况影响了银行关系的数量。较少

We investigated the structural change in flow of-funds of the Japanese economy during the 1990s from the following three viewpoints: bank behavior, firm behavior and bank-firm relationship. We summarize our main findings of our research.1. Bank BehaviorFirst, we investigated the determinants of banks' excess reserves under the quantity easing policy adopted in the period of March in 2001 to March in 2006. We estimated the demand function for excess reserves by commercial banks derived from expected profit maximization by banks, using bank panel data set. We found that banks held excess reserves due to fragile financial system and almost zero interest rate situations. Secondly, we investigated the determinants of lending attitude of financial institutions reported in the BOJ Tankan survey. Estimation was conducted separately by firm size and industry. In particular we were interested in the impact of deteriorating balance sheet of banks on lending attitude of banks. We found that mounti … More ng non-performing loans in the banking sector led to severity of lending attitude of financial institutions.2. Firm BehaviorFirst, it should be noted that external finance premium for the firm crucially hinges upon the degree of asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers or agency cost. The external finance premium is intrinsically unobservable, but we made an attempt to estimate it by using Bayesian statistical tools. We found that the agency cost was lowered in the bubble period and then it increased rapidly after the bubble collapse. We also found that business investment was closely related to the movement of agency cost. Second, we investigated what kind of information business investment responds to when the firm adjusts its investment plans. In particular we examined whether investment revision is sensitive to evaluation in stock market. We found that revision of business investment is sensitive to revision of sales and profits rather than stock market events.3. Bank-Firm RelationshipIn Japan it is often argued that information of the firm is concentrated on one bank or its main bank. Although information of the firm is concentrated on its main bank, the firm has in many cases multiple bank-firm relationships. We investigated why the firm has multiple relations with banks based on micro-data of large listed firms and small unlisted firms. We found that balance sheet conditions of the main bank as well as its affiliated firms affected the number of bank relations. Less