An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Flow-of-Funds and the Real Economy : A General Equilibrium Approach to the Japanese Economy in the 1990s

本研究是从一般均衡的角度分析日本经济在20世纪90年代长期停滞的机制的一次实证尝试。我们调查了日本经济资金流的变化，以及它是如何传播到实体经济中的。首先，基于中小企业中介机构进行的中小企业基础调查的企业层面的微观数据，我们发现，与银行关系较弱的小企业倾向于从大企业购买中间产品，从而大供应商以贸易信贷的形式向小客户提供信贷。鉴于从上述微观数据研究中获得的实证结果，我们扩展了我们的分析，基于按公司规模分类的投入产出表，检验了供应商和采购商以及金融机构的资产负债表恶化对大公司和小公司之间中间产品贸易的影响。我们发现，向供应商提供银行信贷的金融机构的资产负债表状况恶化，在很大程度上影响了小公司和大公司的乘数。

This research is an empirical attempt to analyze the mechanism of what brought about the long stagnancy of the Japanese economy in the 1990s from the general equilibrium standpoint. We investigated into the change in the flow-of-funds of the Japanese economy and how it had been propagated into the real economy. First, based on the firm-level micro data of Basis Survey of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises conducted by Small and Medium Enterprise Agency, we showed that small firms with weak relationship with banks tended to purchase intermediary goods from large firms and thus credit was given to small customers by large suppliers in the form of trade credit. Given the empirical findings obtained from the micro-data study above, we extended our analysis to examine the effects of balance sheet deteriorations of suppliers and purchasers as well as financial institutions on the trade of intermediary goods between large and small firms based on the input-output tables classified by firm size. We found that deterioration of the balance sheet conditions of financial institutions providing bank credit to suppliers affected the multipliers of small and large firms to a large extent.