Public Attitudes and Scotland's Independence Referendum

这项奖学金提议是为了一个知识交流和研究活动的计划，该计划将就苏格兰宪法未来的公众舆论的关键方面提供独立、无党派的信息。该计划包括三项主要活动：编写一份关于公众对苏格兰宪法未来的态度的书籍长度的研究报告，并在公投前出版；提供一个网站，作为有关关键问题的证据和民意洞察的全面和权威来源；以及提供关于民意关键方面的研究简报和研讨会。书籍长度研究将是第一次对盎格鲁-苏格兰边界两侧的公众对苏格兰宪法未来的态度进行全面研究。它将涵盖四个主要主题：1999年以来的态度趋势；人们为什么支持或反对苏格兰独立；人们希望苏格兰独立的政策是什么；以及如果苏格兰留在英国，人们希望苏格兰在多大程度上下放权力。该书旨在评估可以从苏格兰案件中吸取哪些教训，以供一些关键的学术和政策辩论参考。对独立的态度在多大程度上仅仅反映了人们的国家认同感，或者他们认为独立的后果也在很大程度上决定了他们的态度？人们会仅仅根据问题的是非曲直投票赞成还是反对，或者他们会受到他们对现任英国政府的态度或他们对各个政党的看法的影响？引入权力下放是否不可避免地使苏格兰走上了独立的道路，或者是否存在可能的宪法解决方案，为在联盟框架内治理苏格兰提供稳定的基础？这本书将主要基于现有的可用数据，其中大部分来自苏格兰公民中心的苏格兰社会态度调查，但也将受益于收集关于对独立的苏格兰将面临的一些政策选择的态度的新数据，例如它是否应该成为一个无核国家或保留英镑。该网站将有三个主要元素。在它们之间，它们旨在提高关于民意状况的学术和非学术报道和辩论的质量。首先，该网站将汇集自2007年以来发布的所有关键民意调查读数，并使其易于获取。如果同一问题不止一次被提出，则将提供所产生的时间序列。与此同时，还将有一个易于使用的工具，使用户能够进一步询问一个特别丰富和重要的来源--苏格兰社会态度调查的数据。第二，该网站将在新的民调和调查结果发布后不久发布书面博客和视频评论。这些帖子将提请注意在解释调查结果时应考虑的方法论问题，并解释其实质意义。最后，该网站将提供一套全面的数字链接，链接到现有的关于这一主题的学术和其他文献。研究简报将提供四页纸的评论，评论与苏格兰宪法未来辩论相关的一些关键话题的民意状况。在每次情况通报会上，还将举行有关专题的半天研讨会。这项活动的目的是增进目前不太熟悉事态发展的人对全民投票辩论的了解。

This fellowship proposal is for a programme of knowledge exchange and research activity that would provide independent, non-partisan information on key aspects of public opinion towards Scotland's constitutional future. The programme consists of three main activities: the writing of a book-length study on public attitudes towards Scotland's constitutional future for publication in advance of the referendum; the provision of a website that would act as a comprehensive and authoritative source of evidence on and insight into public opinion towards the key issues at stake; and, the provision of research briefings and seminars on key aspects of public opinion.The book length study will be the first full length study of public attitudes - on both sides of the Anglo-Scottish border - towards Scotland's constitutional future. It will cover four main topics: trends in attitudes since 1999; why people support or oppose Scottish independence; what policies people would want an independent Scotland to pursue; and how much devolution would Scotland want if it remained within the UK. The book would aim to assess what lessons can be drawn from the Scottish case for a number of key academic and policy debates. How far are attitudes towards independence simply a reflection of people's sense of national identity or are they are also shaped significantly by what they think the consequences of independence would be? Will people vote for or against simply on the merits of the issue or will they be influenced by their attitudes towards the incumbent UK government or what they think of the various political parties? And has introducing devolution inevitably put Scotland on a path towards independence or is there a possible constitutional settlement that might provide a stable basis for governing Scotland within the framework of the Union? The book will be written primarily on the basis of existing available data, much of it from the ScotCen's Scottish Social Attitudes survey, but will also benefit from the collection of new data on attitudes towards some of the policy options that would face an independent Scotland, such as whether it should be a nuclear free country or keep the pound.The web site will have three main elements. Between them they are designed to enhance the quality of academic and non-academic reporting of and debate about the state of public opinion. First, the site will bring together and make easily accessible all the key survey readings on public opinion that have been published since 2007. Where the same question has been asked on more than one occasion the resulting time series will be available. At the same time there will be an easy to use facility that will enable users to interrogate further the data of one particularly rich and important source, the Scottish Social Attitudes survey.Second the site will post written blogs and video commentaries on new poll and survey findings shortly after they are published. These postings will draw attention to any methodological considerations that should be borne in interpreting a finding, as well as interpret their substantive significance. Finally, the site will provide a comprehensive set of digital links to existing academic and other literature on the subject.The research briefings will provide four page commentaries on the state of public opinion in respect of a number of key topics of relevance to the debate about Scotland's constitutional future. On the occasion of each briefing a half day seminar on the relevant topic will also be held. This activity is designed to enhance understanding of the referendum debate amongst those who are currently less familiar with developments so far.