Public Attitudes and Scotland's Independence Referendum

这项研究金提案旨在开展一个知识交流和研究活动项目，就公众舆论对苏格兰宪法未来的关键方面提供独立、无党派的信息。该方案包括三项主要活动：撰写一份关于公众对苏格兰宪法未来态度的研究报告，以便在全民公决之前出版；提供一个网站，作为全面和权威的证据来源，了解公众对关键问题的看法；此外，就公众舆论的主要方面提供研究简报和研讨会。这本书长度的研究将是第一次全面研究盎格鲁-苏格兰边境两边的公众对苏格兰宪法未来的态度。它将涵盖四个主要主题：自1999年以来的态度趋势；为什么人们支持或反对苏格兰独立；人们希望独立后的苏格兰采取什么样的政策；以及如果苏格兰留在英国，它想要多少权力下放。这本书的目的是评估可以从苏格兰案例中吸取哪些教训，用于一些关键的学术和政策辩论。对独立的态度在多大程度上仅仅反映了人们的民族认同感，还是在很大程度上也受到他们对独立后果的看法的影响？人们投票支持还是反对仅仅是基于问题本身的优点，还是会受到他们对现任英国政府的态度或他们对各个政党的看法的影响？权力下放是否会不可避免地让苏格兰走上独立之路，或者是否存在一种可能的宪法解决方案，为在联合王国框架内治理苏格兰提供一个稳定的基础？这本书将主要以现有的可用数据为基础编写，其中大部分数据来自苏格兰社会态度调查，但也将受益于收集对独立后苏格兰面临的一些政策选择的态度的新数据，例如它是应该成为一个无核国家还是保留英镑。网站将有三个主要元素。它们的目的是提高关于公众舆论状况的学术和非学术报道和辩论的质量。首先，该网站将汇集2007年以来发布的所有重要民意调查数据，并使其易于访问。如果同一个问题被问了不止一次，结果时间序列将可用。与此同时，将有一个易于使用的设施，使用户能够进一步查询一个特别丰富和重要的来源的数据，苏格兰社会态度调查。其次，该网站将在新的民意调查结果公布后不久发布书面博客和视频评论。这些员额将提请注意在解释一项调查结果及其实质性意义时应考虑的任何方法方面的考虑。最后，该网站将提供一套全面的数字链接到现有的学术和其他文献的主题。研究简报将提供四页关于公众舆论状况的评论，这些评论涉及与苏格兰宪法未来辩论相关的一些关键主题。在每次简报会举行的同时，还将举行半天的有关专题研讨会。这项活动的目的是增进那些目前不太熟悉目前事态发展的人对全民投票辩论的了解。

This fellowship proposal is for a programme of knowledge exchange and research activity that would provide independent, non-partisan information on key aspects of public opinion towards Scotland's constitutional future. The programme consists of three main activities: the writing of a book-length study on public attitudes towards Scotland's constitutional future for publication in advance of the referendum; the provision of a website that would act as a comprehensive and authoritative source of evidence on and insight into public opinion towards the key issues at stake; and, the provision of research briefings and seminars on key aspects of public opinion.The book length study will be the first full length study of public attitudes - on both sides of the Anglo-Scottish border - towards Scotland's constitutional future. It will cover four main topics: trends in attitudes since 1999; why people support or oppose Scottish independence; what policies people would want an independent Scotland to pursue; and how much devolution would Scotland want if it remained within the UK. The book would aim to assess what lessons can be drawn from the Scottish case for a number of key academic and policy debates. How far are attitudes towards independence simply a reflection of people's sense of national identity or are they are also shaped significantly by what they think the consequences of independence would be? Will people vote for or against simply on the merits of the issue or will they be influenced by their attitudes towards the incumbent UK government or what they think of the various political parties? And has introducing devolution inevitably put Scotland on a path towards independence or is there a possible constitutional settlement that might provide a stable basis for governing Scotland within the framework of the Union? The book will be written primarily on the basis of existing available data, much of it from the ScotCen's Scottish Social Attitudes survey, but will also benefit from the collection of new data on attitudes towards some of the policy options that would face an independent Scotland, such as whether it should be a nuclear free country or keep the pound.The web site will have three main elements. Between them they are designed to enhance the quality of academic and non-academic reporting of and debate about the state of public opinion. First, the site will bring together and make easily accessible all the key survey readings on public opinion that have been published since 2007. Where the same question has been asked on more than one occasion the resulting time series will be available. At the same time there will be an easy to use facility that will enable users to interrogate further the data of one particularly rich and important source, the Scottish Social Attitudes survey.Second the site will post written blogs and video commentaries on new poll and survey findings shortly after they are published. These postings will draw attention to any methodological considerations that should be borne in interpreting a finding, as well as interpret their substantive significance. Finally, the site will provide a comprehensive set of digital links to existing academic and other literature on the subject.The research briefings will provide four page commentaries on the state of public opinion in respect of a number of key topics of relevance to the debate about Scotland's constitutional future. On the occasion of each briefing a half day seminar on the relevant topic will also be held. This activity is designed to enhance understanding of the referendum debate amongst those who are currently less familiar with developments so far.