Public Attitudes and Scotland's Independence Referendum

这项研究金提案是为了一个知识交流和研究活动方案，将提供关于苏格兰宪法未来公众舆论关键方面的独立、无党派信息。该方案包括三项主要活动：编写一份关于公众对苏格兰宪法未来的态度的研究报告，篇幅长达一本书，在全民投票前出版;提供一个网站，作为全面和权威的证据来源，了解公众对关键问题的看法;以及就公众意见的主要方面提供研究简报和研讨会。这本书的长度研究将是第一个完整的研究公众态度-在盎格鲁-苏格兰边界两侧-对苏格兰宪法的未来。它将涵盖四个主要主题：自1999年以来的态度趋势;为什么人们支持或反对苏格兰独立;人们希望独立的苏格兰采取什么政策;如果苏格兰留在英国，苏格兰希望下放多少权力。这本书旨在评估从苏格兰的案例中可以为一些关键的学术和政策辩论吸取什么教训。对独立的态度在多大程度上仅仅反映了人们的民族认同感，还是在很大程度上取决于他们对独立后果的看法？人们会仅仅根据问题的是非曲直投票赞成或反对，还是会受到他们对现任英国政府的态度或他们对各政党的看法的影响？引入权力下放是否不可避免地使苏格兰走上了独立的道路，或者是否有一个可能的宪法解决方案，可能为在联盟框架内治理苏格兰提供一个稳定的基础？这本书将主要基于现有的数据，其中大部分来自ScotCen的苏格兰社会态度调查，但也将受益于收集的新数据，这些数据涉及对独立的苏格兰所面临的一些政策选择的态度，例如它是否应该成为一个无核国家或保留磅。该网站将有三个主要元素。它们的目的是提高学术和非学术报告的质量，并就公众舆论的状况进行辩论。首先，该网站将汇集自2007年以来公布的所有主要民意调查数据，并使人们能够方便地查阅这些数据。如果同一问题被多次提出，则将提供所产生的时间序列。与此同时，该网站还将提供一个易于使用的工具，使用户能够进一步查询一个特别丰富和重要的来源-苏格兰社会态度调查的数据。第二，该网站将在新的民意调查和调查结果发表后不久，就其发表书面博客和视频评论。这些帖子将提请注意在解释一项发现时应考虑的任何方法学因素，以及解释其实质性意义。最后，该网站将提供一套全面的数字链接，链接到有关该主题的现有学术和其他文献。研究简报将提供四页的评论，介绍公众对苏格兰宪法未来辩论的一些关键主题的看法。在每次情况介绍会上，还将就有关专题举行半天的研讨会。这项活动的目的是提高目前对事态发展不太熟悉的人对全民投票辩论的了解。

This fellowship proposal is for a programme of knowledge exchange and research activity that would provide independent, non-partisan information on key aspects of public opinion towards Scotland's constitutional future. The programme consists of three main activities: the writing of a book-length study on public attitudes towards Scotland's constitutional future for publication in advance of the referendum; the provision of a website that would act as a comprehensive and authoritative source of evidence on and insight into public opinion towards the key issues at stake; and, the provision of research briefings and seminars on key aspects of public opinion.The book length study will be the first full length study of public attitudes - on both sides of the Anglo-Scottish border - towards Scotland's constitutional future. It will cover four main topics: trends in attitudes since 1999; why people support or oppose Scottish independence; what policies people would want an independent Scotland to pursue; and how much devolution would Scotland want if it remained within the UK. The book would aim to assess what lessons can be drawn from the Scottish case for a number of key academic and policy debates. How far are attitudes towards independence simply a reflection of people's sense of national identity or are they are also shaped significantly by what they think the consequences of independence would be? Will people vote for or against simply on the merits of the issue or will they be influenced by their attitudes towards the incumbent UK government or what they think of the various political parties? And has introducing devolution inevitably put Scotland on a path towards independence or is there a possible constitutional settlement that might provide a stable basis for governing Scotland within the framework of the Union? The book will be written primarily on the basis of existing available data, much of it from the ScotCen's Scottish Social Attitudes survey, but will also benefit from the collection of new data on attitudes towards some of the policy options that would face an independent Scotland, such as whether it should be a nuclear free country or keep the pound.The web site will have three main elements. Between them they are designed to enhance the quality of academic and non-academic reporting of and debate about the state of public opinion. First, the site will bring together and make easily accessible all the key survey readings on public opinion that have been published since 2007. Where the same question has been asked on more than one occasion the resulting time series will be available. At the same time there will be an easy to use facility that will enable users to interrogate further the data of one particularly rich and important source, the Scottish Social Attitudes survey.Second the site will post written blogs and video commentaries on new poll and survey findings shortly after they are published. These postings will draw attention to any methodological considerations that should be borne in interpreting a finding, as well as interpret their substantive significance. Finally, the site will provide a comprehensive set of digital links to existing academic and other literature on the subject.The research briefings will provide four page commentaries on the state of public opinion in respect of a number of key topics of relevance to the debate about Scotland's constitutional future. On the occasion of each briefing a half day seminar on the relevant topic will also be held. This activity is designed to enhance understanding of the referendum debate amongst those who are currently less familiar with developments so far.