Public Attitudes and Scotland's Independence Referendum

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This fellowship proposal is for a programme of knowledge exchange and research activity that would provide independent, non-partisan information on key aspects of public opinion towards Scotland's constitutional future. The programme consists of three main activities: the writing of a book-length study on public attitudes towards Scotland's constitutional future for publication in advance of the referendum; the provision of a website that would act as a comprehensive and authoritative source of evidence on and insight into public opinion towards the key issues at stake; and, the provision of research briefings and seminars on key aspects of public opinion.The book length study will be the first full length study of public attitudes - on both sides of the Anglo-Scottish border - towards Scotland's constitutional future. It will cover four main topics: trends in attitudes since 1999; why people support or oppose Scottish independence; what policies people would want an independent Scotland to pursue; and how much devolution would Scotland want if it remained within the UK. The book would aim to assess what lessons can be drawn from the Scottish case for a number of key academic and policy debates. How far are attitudes towards independence simply a reflection of people's sense of national identity or are they are also shaped significantly by what they think the consequences of independence would be? Will people vote for or against simply on the merits of the issue or will they be influenced by their attitudes towards the incumbent UK government or what they think of the various political parties? And has introducing devolution inevitably put Scotland on a path towards independence or is there a possible constitutional settlement that might provide a stable basis for governing Scotland within the framework of the Union? The book will be written primarily on the basis of existing available data, much of it from the ScotCen's Scottish Social Attitudes survey, but will also benefit from the collection of new data on attitudes towards some of the policy options that would face an independent Scotland, such as whether it should be a nuclear free country or keep the pound.The web site will have three main elements. Between them they are designed to enhance the quality of academic and non-academic reporting of and debate about the state of public opinion. First, the site will bring together and make easily accessible all the key survey readings on public opinion that have been published since 2007. Where the same question has been asked on more than one occasion the resulting time series will be available. At the same time there will be an easy to use facility that will enable users to interrogate further the data of one particularly rich and important source, the Scottish Social Attitudes survey.Second the site will post written blogs and video commentaries on new poll and survey findings shortly after they are published. These postings will draw attention to any methodological considerations that should be borne in interpreting a finding, as well as interpret their substantive significance. Finally, the site will provide a comprehensive set of digital links to existing academic and other literature on the subject.The research briefings will provide four page commentaries on the state of public opinion in respect of a number of key topics of relevance to the debate about Scotland's constitutional future. On the occasion of each briefing a half day seminar on the relevant topic will also be held. This activity is designed to enhance understanding of the referendum debate amongst those who are currently less familiar with developments so far.