Public Preferences and Reactions during the Brexit Process

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The UK government is now attempting to implement the instruction to secure the UK's withdrawal from membership of the European Union ('Brexit') given it by the electorate in the referendum held on June 23 2016. This withdrawal represents one of the most momentous changes in UK government policy since 1945. However, it has still left open a wide range of possible options for and decisions to make about the future relationship between the UK and the EU, while the merits of various different options are the subject of intense debate. At the same time, Brexit potentially has important implications for the territorial integrity of the UK and for the future of its political parties.This project will, first of all, track and analyse what kind of future relationship between the UK and the EU voters would like to see put in place and monitor voters' reactions to the progress of the negotiations between the UK and the EU. In so doing it will focus in particular on whether voters' preferences and reactions are shaped by the perceived transactional (and especially economic) costs and benefits of withdrawal, or whether they reflect voters' prior predispositions (such as how they voted in the referendum) and sense of identity. Of particular interest is whether there is any evidence that, as a result of having held the referendum, the latter may have become more important in shaping voters' attitudes towards the EU.At the same time, the project will assess the potentially disruptive consequences of Brexit for Britain's political future. Unlike England and Wales, Scotland voted to remain in the EU and the Scottish Government wishes to maintain a close relationship with the EU - perhaps by seeking membership for Scotland in its own right. The project will track and analyse both whether there is public support north of the border for a closer relationship with the EU and the impact that Brexit is having on support for Scottish independence. Meanwhile, the supporters of all political parties (apart from UKIP) were divided between backing Remain and voting Leave in a contest in which attitudes towards the merits of having a more less diverse society displaced arguments about whether government should be more or less active in pursuing a more equal society that usually dominate in a general election. If Brexit remains (as seems likely) the central focus of British political debate, it is possible that the existing coalitions of support enjoyed by the Conservatives and Labour will be frayed or even fracture. The project will thus analyse whether there is any evidence that this is proving to be the case.In pursuit of these objectives, the project will both undertake its own new survey research and monitor and make easily accessible the results of published opinion polls. The new survey research (undertaken both across Britain as a whole and Scotland in particular) will focus both on short-term changes in voters' attitudes and evaluations during the course of the negotiations and on the long-term impact the Brexit process is having on the structure of political attitudes in the UK. All data and analysis will be made freely and regularly available to anyone with an interest in the subject via two well-established websites, activity that will be supplemented by public and private seminar presentations. As a result, the project is designed to ensure that all those with responsibility for taking decisions in respect of Brexit have easy access to the best available information on public attitudes towards the process of withdrawal, while at the same time helping to ensure that there is adequate academic investigation into the impact of Brexit on the distribution and structure of political attitudes in the UK.