Public Preferences and Reactions during the Brexit Process

英国政府目前正试图执行2016年6月23日举行的公投中选民给出的指令，以确保英国退出欧盟（“脱欧”）。此次撤军是英国政府自1945年以来最重大的政策变化之一。然而，它仍然为英国和欧盟之间的未来关系留下了广泛的可能选择和决定，而各种不同选择的优点是激烈辩论的主题。与此同时，英国脱欧可能对英国的领土完整及其政党的未来产生重要影响。首先，这个项目将跟踪和分析英国和欧盟选民希望看到什么样的未来关系，并监测选民对英国和欧盟之间谈判进展的反应。在这样做的过程中，它将特别关注选民的偏好和反应是否受到退出的感知交易（尤其是经济）成本和收益的影响，或者它们是否反映了选民先前的倾向（例如他们在公投中如何投票）和认同感。特别令人感兴趣的是，是否有证据表明，由于举行了公投，后者可能在塑造选民对欧盟的态度方面变得更加重要。与此同时，该项目将评估英国脱欧对英国政治未来的潜在破坏性后果。与英格兰和威尔士不同，苏格兰投票决定留在欧盟，苏格兰政府希望与欧盟保持密切关系——也许是通过寻求苏格兰本身的成员资格。该项目将跟踪和分析边境以北是否有公众支持与欧盟建立更紧密的关系，以及英国脱欧对苏格兰独立支持的影响。与此同时，除英国独立党（UKIP）外，所有政党的支持者在支持留欧和支持脱欧之间存在分歧。在这场辩论中，人们对减少社会多样性的好处的态度，取代了通常在大选中占主导地位的关于政府是否应该更积极地追求一个更平等的社会的争论。如果英国退欧仍然是英国政治辩论的中心焦点（看起来很有可能），保守党和工党现有的支持联盟可能会受到磨损，甚至破裂。因此，该项目将分析是否有任何证据证明这是事实。为了实现这些目标，该项目将进行自己的新的调查研究，并监测和方便查阅已公布的民意测验的结果。这项新的调查研究（在整个英国，特别是苏格兰进行）将重点关注谈判过程中选民态度和评估的短期变化，以及英国脱欧进程对英国政治态度结构的长期影响。所有数据和分析将通过两个完善的网站免费定期提供给对该主题感兴趣的任何人，活动将辅以公开和私人研讨会的演讲。因此，该项目的目的是确保所有负责就英国脱欧做出决定的人都能轻松获得有关公众对退出过程态度的最佳可用信息，同时帮助确保对英国脱欧对政治态度的分布和结构的影响进行充分的学术调查。

The UK government is now attempting to implement the instruction to secure the UK's withdrawal from membership of the European Union ('Brexit') given it by the electorate in the referendum held on June 23 2016. This withdrawal represents one of the most momentous changes in UK government policy since 1945. However, it has still left open a wide range of possible options for and decisions to make about the future relationship between the UK and the EU, while the merits of various different options are the subject of intense debate. At the same time, Brexit potentially has important implications for the territorial integrity of the UK and for the future of its political parties.This project will, first of all, track and analyse what kind of future relationship between the UK and the EU voters would like to see put in place and monitor voters' reactions to the progress of the negotiations between the UK and the EU. In so doing it will focus in particular on whether voters' preferences and reactions are shaped by the perceived transactional (and especially economic) costs and benefits of withdrawal, or whether they reflect voters' prior predispositions (such as how they voted in the referendum) and sense of identity. Of particular interest is whether there is any evidence that, as a result of having held the referendum, the latter may have become more important in shaping voters' attitudes towards the EU.At the same time, the project will assess the potentially disruptive consequences of Brexit for Britain's political future. Unlike England and Wales, Scotland voted to remain in the EU and the Scottish Government wishes to maintain a close relationship with the EU - perhaps by seeking membership for Scotland in its own right. The project will track and analyse both whether there is public support north of the border for a closer relationship with the EU and the impact that Brexit is having on support for Scottish independence. Meanwhile, the supporters of all political parties (apart from UKIP) were divided between backing Remain and voting Leave in a contest in which attitudes towards the merits of having a more less diverse society displaced arguments about whether government should be more or less active in pursuing a more equal society that usually dominate in a general election. If Brexit remains (as seems likely) the central focus of British political debate, it is possible that the existing coalitions of support enjoyed by the Conservatives and Labour will be frayed or even fracture. The project will thus analyse whether there is any evidence that this is proving to be the case.In pursuit of these objectives, the project will both undertake its own new survey research and monitor and make easily accessible the results of published opinion polls. The new survey research (undertaken both across Britain as a whole and Scotland in particular) will focus both on short-term changes in voters' attitudes and evaluations during the course of the negotiations and on the long-term impact the Brexit process is having on the structure of political attitudes in the UK. All data and analysis will be made freely and regularly available to anyone with an interest in the subject via two well-established websites, activity that will be supplemented by public and private seminar presentations. As a result, the project is designed to ensure that all those with responsibility for taking decisions in respect of Brexit have easy access to the best available information on public attitudes towards the process of withdrawal, while at the same time helping to ensure that there is adequate academic investigation into the impact of Brexit on the distribution and structure of political attitudes in the UK.