权益分类	功能权益	普通用户	{{item.name}}会员
{{category.name}}	{{benefitItem.name}}

Public Preferences and Reactions during the Brexit Process

英国脱欧过程中的公众偏好和反应

基本信息

批准号：
ES/R001219/1
负责人：
John Curtice
金额：
$ 39.6万
依托单位：
NatCen Social Research
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2017 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FR001219%2F1
关键词：
Public Preferences Reactions during Brexit

项目摘要

The UK government is now attempting to implement the instruction to secure the UK's withdrawal from membership of the European Union ('Brexit') given it by the electorate in the referendum held on June 23 2016. This withdrawal represents one of the most momentous changes in UK government policy since 1945. However, it has still left open a wide range of possible options for and decisions to make about the future relationship between the UK and the EU, while the merits of various different options are the subject of intense debate. At the same time, Brexit potentially has important implications for the territorial integrity of the UK and for the future of its political parties.This project will, first of all, track and analyse what kind of future relationship between the UK and the EU voters would like to see put in place and monitor voters' reactions to the progress of the negotiations between the UK and the EU. In so doing it will focus in particular on whether voters' preferences and reactions are shaped by the perceived transactional (and especially economic) costs and benefits of withdrawal, or whether they reflect voters' prior predispositions (such as how they voted in the referendum) and sense of identity. Of particular interest is whether there is any evidence that, as a result of having held the referendum, the latter may have become more important in shaping voters' attitudes towards the EU.At the same time, the project will assess the potentially disruptive consequences of Brexit for Britain's political future. Unlike England and Wales, Scotland voted to remain in the EU and the Scottish Government wishes to maintain a close relationship with the EU - perhaps by seeking membership for Scotland in its own right. The project will track and analyse both whether there is public support north of the border for a closer relationship with the EU and the impact that Brexit is having on support for Scottish independence. Meanwhile, the supporters of all political parties (apart from UKIP) were divided between backing Remain and voting Leave in a contest in which attitudes towards the merits of having a more less diverse society displaced arguments about whether government should be more or less active in pursuing a more equal society that usually dominate in a general election. If Brexit remains (as seems likely) the central focus of British political debate, it is possible that the existing coalitions of support enjoyed by the Conservatives and Labour will be frayed or even fracture. The project will thus analyse whether there is any evidence that this is proving to be the case.In pursuit of these objectives, the project will both undertake its own new survey research and monitor and make easily accessible the results of published opinion polls. The new survey research (undertaken both across Britain as a whole and Scotland in particular) will focus both on short-term changes in voters' attitudes and evaluations during the course of the negotiations and on the long-term impact the Brexit process is having on the structure of political attitudes in the UK. All data and analysis will be made freely and regularly available to anyone with an interest in the subject via two well-established websites, activity that will be supplemented by public and private seminar presentations. As a result, the project is designed to ensure that all those with responsibility for taking decisions in respect of Brexit have easy access to the best available information on public attitudes towards the process of withdrawal, while at the same time helping to ensure that there is adequate academic investigation into the impact of Brexit on the distribution and structure of political attitudes in the UK.

英国政府目前正试图执行选民在2016年6月23日举行的全民公决中提出的确保英国退出欧盟（“脱欧”）的指示。这是自1945年以来英国政府政策最重大的变化之一。然而，它仍然为英国与欧盟之间的未来关系留下了广泛的可能选择和决定，而各种不同选择的优点是激烈辩论的主题。同时，英国脱欧对英国的领土完整和英国政党的未来可能产生重要影响。该项目将首先跟踪和分析英国和欧盟选民希望看到的未来关系，并监测选民对英国和欧盟谈判进展的反应。在这样做的时候，它将特别关注选民的偏好和反应是否受到所感知的退出的交易（特别是经济）成本和收益的影响，或者它们是否反映了选民的先前倾向（例如他们在全民投票中如何投票）和认同感。特别令人感兴趣的是，是否有证据表明，由于举行了公投，后者可能在塑造选民对欧盟的态度方面变得更加重要。与此同时，该项目将评估英国退欧对英国政治未来的潜在破坏性后果。与英格兰和威尔士不同的是，苏格兰投票决定留在欧盟，苏格兰政府希望与欧盟保持密切关系--也许是通过苏格兰自己争取成员资格。该项目将跟踪和分析边境以北是否有公众支持与欧盟建立更密切的关系，以及英国脱欧对苏格兰独立的支持的影响。与此同时，所有政党（除了英国独立党）的支持者在支持留欧和投票脱欧之间存在分歧，在这场竞赛中，对社会多元化程度较低的优点的态度取代了关于政府是否应该更积极或更不积极地追求一个通常在大选中占主导地位的更平等社会的争论。如果英国退欧仍然是英国政治辩论的中心焦点（这似乎是可能的），那么保守党和工党现有的支持联盟可能会受到损害，甚至破裂。因此，该项目将分析是否有任何证据证明情况确实如此，为了实现这些目标，该项目将进行自己的新调查研究，并监测和方便地提供已公布的民意调查结果。新的调查研究（在整个英国，特别是苏格兰进行）将关注谈判过程中选民态度和评价的短期变化，以及英国脱欧进程对英国政治态度结构的长期影响。所有数据和分析将通过两个完善的网站免费定期提供给任何对该主题感兴趣的人，活动将由公共和私人研讨会演讲补充。因此，该项目旨在确保所有负责就英国退欧做出决定的人都能轻松获得有关公众对退欧进程的态度的最佳信息，同时帮助确保对英国退欧对英国政治态度的分布和结构的影响进行充分的学术调查。