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The Evolution of Public Attitudes During The Brexit Process

英国脱欧过程中公众态度的演变

基本信息

批准号：
ES/T000775/1
负责人：
John Curtice
金额：
$ 72.69万
依托单位：
NatCen Social Research
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Fellowship
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FT000775%2F1
关键词：
Evolution Public Attitudes During Brexit

项目摘要

Although two and a half years have passed since the EU referendum, many of the key decisions about the UK's future relationship with the EU have yet to be made. The way in which the Brexit negotiations have been structured means that, for example, discussion of the extent to which the UK has access to and aligns itself with the single market, whether or not it has some form of customs agreement with the EU, whether it is able or unable to pursue its own trade policy, and whether UK citizens will still have access to such everyday arrangements as the European Health Card, has yet to take place. Meanwhile there is still some uncertainty as to whether the UK will reach an agreed deal with the EU on the terms of its departure - or whether the decision to leave the EU itself might be reopened.Because the decision to leave the EU is the product of the choice that a majority of voters made in a referendum, claims and counterclaims about whether people in Britain still want to leave the EU and, if so, what kind of Brexit they want, are a potentially valuable currency in the political and policy debate about Brexit. It is therefore important that these claims and counterclaims are subjected to critical scrutiny. This fellowship will undertake and facilitate such scrutiny. Using a mixture of publicly available polling data and its own survey research, it will chart and analyse public preferences, evaluations and identities of relevance to the debate about Brexit during a period that will be crucial in shaping the UK's future relationship with the EU. In so doing its aim is to inform the development of public policy on the EU and enhance the quality of the evidence used in the public debate about Brexit. The fellowship will focus in particular on the following questions:1. Is the eventual outcome of the Brexit process one that satisfies a majority of both Remain voters and Leave supporters, or is the apparent polarisation between these two groups and the intensity of feeling among them left unresolved?2. Is the original decision to leave the EU still supported by a majority of voters at the end of the Brexit process, and what are the implications of the evolution of attitudes during that process for the debate about the use of referendums in liberal democracies?3. Why do voters change - or not change - their minds about the desirability and consequences of Brexit?4. What impact does the Brexit process have on attitudes towards and levels of trust in how the UK is governed, including in particular on attitudes towards Scottish independence?5. What impact does the Brexit process have on the pattern of support for the UK's political parties?6. How would voters like the UK to use the greater policy autonomy that it is likely to possess as a result of leaving the EU?The fruits of the fellowship will be made available primarily via two websites. The first, whatukthinks.org/eu, provides a comprehensive and easily accessible and searchable collection of polling data of relevance to the debate about Brexit, together with blogs and longer analysis papers. The other, whatscotlandthinks.org, provides similar facilities and information in respect of public attitudes towards how the various parts of Britain should be governed, with a particular emphasis on the constitutional debate in Scotland. In addition, and working in collaboration with the ESRC's 'The UK in a Changing Europe' initiative, the fellowship will use social and conventional media, public and private presentations, chapters in the annual British Social Attitudes series, and academic papers and presentations in order to disseminate its findings to academics, policy-makers and the wider public.

尽管退欧公投已经过去了两年半，但有关英国未来与欧盟关系的许多关键决定尚未做出。英国退欧谈判的结构方式意味着，例如，关于英国在多大程度上可以进入并与单一市场结盟、是否与欧盟达成某种形式的海关协议、是否能够推行自己的贸易政策，以及英国公民是否仍能获得欧洲医保卡等日常安排的讨论尚未进行。与此同时，对于英国是否会就脱欧条款与欧盟达成一致协议--或者脱欧决定本身是否会重启--仍存在一些不确定性。由于脱欧决定是大多数选民在公投中做出选择的产物，关于英国人是否仍然想要离开欧盟以及如果想要，他们想要什么样的英国退欧的主张和反驳，在关于英国退欧的政治和政策辩论中，是一个潜在的有价值的货币。因此，重要的是对这些索赔和反索赔进行严格审查。这一奖学金将承担和促进这种审查。它将利用可公开获得的民调数据和自己的调查研究，绘制和分析与英国退欧辩论相关的公众偏好、评估和身份认同，这段时期将对塑造英国与欧盟的未来关系至关重要。这样做的目的是为欧盟公共政策的发展提供信息，并提高关于英国退欧的公开辩论中使用的证据的质量。该奖学金将特别关注以下问题：1.英国退欧进程的最终结果是让大多数留欧选民和脱欧支持者都满意的，还是这两个群体之间明显的两极分化和他们之间的强烈情绪没有得到解决？2.在英国退欧进程结束时，最初的脱欧决定是否仍然得到大多数选民的支持？这一过程中态度的演变对自由民主国家使用公投的辩论意味着什么？3.为什么选民会改变--或不改变--他们对英国退欧的可取性和后果的看法？4.英国退欧进程对人们对英国治理方式的态度和信任程度有什么影响？包括对苏格兰独立的态度吗？5.英国退欧进程对英国政党的支持模式有何影响？6.选民希望英国如何利用脱离欧盟后可能拥有的更大政策自主权？这项奖学金的成果将主要通过两个网站提供。第一个是WhatukThinkks.org/eu，它提供了一个全面的、易于访问和搜索的与英国退欧辩论相关的民调数据集合，以及博客和更长的分析论文。另一家名为WhatsktlandThinkks.org的网站提供了类似的设施和信息，涉及公众对如何治理英国不同地区的态度，特别是苏格兰的宪法辩论。此外，该奖学金还将与欧洲社会研究中心的“变化的欧洲中的英国”倡议合作，使用社交和传统媒体、公开和私人演示、年度英国社会态度系列中的章节以及学术论文和演示，以便向学者、政策制定者和更广泛的公众传播其调查结果。