Scotland's Constitutional Debate - Patterns and Trends in Public Opinion in 2012

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Following the success of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in winning an overall majority in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, it now seems inevitable that a referendum on whether Scotland should become independent will be held at some point, most likely in the autumn of 2014. Earlier this year (2012), both the UK and the Scottish government held consultations on how the referendum should be conducted, while putative Yes and No campaign organizations have been launched. In effect the campaign that will eventually lead to a vote has begun.The outcome of this referendum will have profound implications not only for Scotland but also for the rest of the UK. For example, should Scotland vote to leave the UK, the future of the UK's nuclear weapons base on the Clyde would be in doubt. Even if Scotland eventually opts to remain within the UK, there is considerable debate about the merits of further significant devolution, in particular of taxes and benefits, and some such proposal that may appear alongside independence on the ballot paper. Some argue such a step would undermine the principle that everyone in Britain should have access to the same level of government help in time of need. Scottish Social Attitudes (SSA) is an annual, independent high quality survey conducted by ScotCen Social Research. Around 1,200 adults selected at random and intended to be representative of Scotland as a whole are interviewed face to face each year. SSA has tracked and analysed the preferences and attitudes of people in Scotland about how they should be governed ever since the advent of devolution in 1999. As a result it has established itself as the only source of detailed consistent but impartial information on the long-term trends and patterns of public opinion on this vital subject.This project will exploit this legacy and provide further contemporaneous information on the state of public opinion north of the border by including a module of 40 questions on the 2012 SSA. These latest results will be compared with those for previous years to assess whether there has been any significant change in the pattern of attitudes since the intensification of the debate about independence earlier this year. At the same time the project will develop further previous research into how far support for independence reflects people's emotional feelings (including in particular their sense of Scottish identity) and how far it reflects what they think the material consequences might be (such as its impact on Scotland's economy). It will also extend this approach to analyzing why people might prefer Scotland to remain within the UK but at the same time would like to see further taxation powers and responsibility for welfare benefits given to the Scottish Parliament. The findings are expected to be of intense interest to all sides in this extremely important debate, providing clues as to what might motivate voters to vote one way or the other as well supplying the most detailed source of evidence on the current state of opinion. Initial findings are expected to be released at a half day seminar in Edinburgh in December 2012, accompanied by extensive press publicity. Further follow-up presentations will be given to key audiences inside and outside government. A written briefing will be published in February 2013 in collaboration with the Electoral Reform Society, followed by subsequent book chapter and academic journal publications. The data will also be made available for other academic researchers to analyse.