Characterisation of the Near-Field Eyjafjallajökull Volcanic Plume and its Long-range Influence

埃亚菲亚德拉火山喷发的火山烟羽对整个欧洲的航空运输造成了重大干扰。确保航空安全的监管对策取决于分散模型。扩散预测的准确性取决于喷发的强度、羽流动力学的模型表示以及羽流中灰和气体的物理性质。要更好地描述这些过程和性质，就需要对近源羽流区域进行详细的观测和建模。该项目将利用观测和建模，以实现更准确和有效的扩散预测。这项调查将设法综合火山学和大气科学的方法，以便建立一个完整的大气过程系统模型。这项研究将结合新的建模和对火山羽流动态及其在分层大气中的重力平衡、气象条件的影响、火山灰颗粒和气体的物理和化学行为、现场物理和化学测量、地面遥感和卫星遥感羽流的高分辨率数值计算建模的深入了解。当与排放本身的特征相结合时，这项研究将提高预测能力。埃亚菲亚德拉火山喷发仍在继续，尽管岩浆挤出暂停。此外，埃亚菲亚德拉火山的所有三次历史性爆发都伴随着更大的卡特拉火山的爆发。冰岛至少还有另外两个火山系统准备爆发。该项目将确保从2010年4月/5月对埃亚菲亚德拉冰盖的反应中吸取的科学和组织经验教训充分转化为未来18个月内任何其他火山进一步爆发的准备工作。总体而言，该项目将（a）完成对4月/5月火山爆发的大气数据的分析，（B）为今后的观测和预测做好准备，以防在2011年底前再次发生火山爆发，（c）如果再次发生火山爆发，则进行更多的观测。

The volcanic plume from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption has caused significant disruption to air transport across Europe. The regulatory response, ensuring aviation safety, depends on dispersion models. The accuracy of the dispersion predictions depend on the intensity of the eruption, on the model representation of the plume dynamics and the physical properties of the ash and gases in the plume. Better characterisation of these processes and properties will require detailed observations and modelling of the near-source plume region. This project will bring to bear observations and modelling in order to achieve more accurate and validated dispersion predictions. The investigation will seek to integrate the volcanological and atmospheric science methods in order to initiate a complete system model of atmospheric processes. This study will integrate new modelling and insights into the dynamics of the volcanic plume and its gravitational equilibration in the stratified atmosphere, effects of meteorological conditions, physical and chemical behaviour of ash particles and gases, physical and chemical in situ measurements, ground-based remote sensing and satellite remote sensing of the plume with very high resolution numerical computational modelling. When integrated with characterisations of the emissions themselves, the research will lead to enhanced predictive capability. The Eyjafjallajökull eruption is ongoing despite the pause in magma extrusion.. Furthermore, all three historical eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull were followed by eruptions of the much larger Katla volcano. At least two other volcanic systems in Iceland are 'primed' ready to erupt. This project will ensure that the science and organisational lessons learned from the April/May 2010 response to Eyjafjallajökull are translated fully into preparedness for a further eruption of any other volcano over the next 18 months. Overall, the project will (a) complete the analysis of atmospheric data from the April/May eruption, (b) prepare for future observations and forecasting if there is another eruption before the end of 2011 and (c) make additional observations if there is another eruption.