Improved Prediction of 21st Century West Antarctic Climate Change: the Role of the Amundsen Sea Low

改进对 21 世纪西南极气候变化的预测：阿蒙森低气压的作用

• 批准号: NE/K00445X/1
• 负责人: John Turner
• 金额: $ 57.11万
• 依托单位: British Antarctic Survey
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FK00445X%2F1
• 关键词: Improved; Prediction; 21st; Century; West

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet contains over 2.2 million cubic kilometers of ice, which if it all melted would raise global sea level by about 5 metres. Over the last few decades West Antarctica has experienced a significant warming. Air temperatures have increased across the surface of the ice sheet, but in addition warmer ocean currents have been melting the ice sheet where it reaches the ocean. The net result has been that some of the ice flowing down to the coast of West Antarctica has been accelerating and thinning so that the coastal area of West Antarctica is now contributing almost 10% to the current rise in global sea level.The climate of West Antarctica is strongly influenced by the storms over the Southern Ocean between the Antarctic Peninsula and the Ross Sea which force warm, maritime air across the ice sheet. There are a large number of storms in this area of the Southern Ocean which are collectively called the Amundsen Sea Low. This is a highly variable feature and is influenced by the ozone 'hole' and climatic conditions across the tropical Pacific Ocean.It is extremely important to know how the climate of West Antarctica will change over the coming century so that we can produce accurate estimates of sea level rise. However, the only tools we have to predict the future are computer models that simulate the atmosphere, ocean and ice across the Earth. These models run as part of initiatives such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have a relatively coarse spatial resolution of about 200 km, which is not sufficient to accurately resolve the complex mountainous terrain of areas such as the coast of West Antarctica. For this project we will run a model with a resolution of 10 km through the 21st century to create the most detailed information yet produced of how temperature, snowfall and wind speed/direction will change as greenhouse gas concentrations increase and the ozone hole recovers. Such data will be of value to those modelling the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and enable the production of better predictions of how the ice sheet will change over the coming century and the contribution it will make to sea level rise.

南极洲西部冰盖包含超过220万立方公里的冰，如果全部融化，将使全球海平面上升约5米。在过去的几十年里，南极洲西部经历了显著的变暖。冰盖表面的气温已经上升，但除此之外，温暖的洋流已经融化了冰盖到达海洋的地方。最终的结果是，一些流向南极洲西部海岸的冰已经加速变薄，因此南极洲西部海岸地区现在对目前全球海平面上升的贡献几乎达到10%。南极洲西部的气候受到南极半岛和罗斯海之间南大洋上的风暴的强烈影响，这些风暴迫使温暖的海洋空气穿过冰盖。在南大洋的这个区域有大量的风暴，统称为阿蒙森海低压。这是一个高度可变的特征，并受到臭氧“空洞”和整个热带太平洋气候条件的影响。了解南极洲西部的气候在未来世纪将如何变化，以便我们能够准确估计海平面上升，这是极其重要的。然而，我们唯一可以预测未来的工具是模拟地球上的大气、海洋和冰的计算机模型。作为政府间气候变化专门委员会等倡议的一部分运行的这些模型的空间分辨率相对粗糙，约为200公里，不足以准确地解决南极洲西部海岸等地区复杂的山区地形。在这个项目中，我们将运行一个分辨率为10公里的模型，通过21世纪的世纪来创建最详细的信息，说明随着温室气体浓度的增加和臭氧洞的恢复，温度，降雪和风速/风向将如何变化。这些数据将对制作南极西部冰盖模型的人很有价值，并能更好地预测冰盖在下一个世纪将如何变化及其对海平面上升的影响。

项目成果

Future circulation changes off West Antarctica: Sensitivity of the Amundsen Sea Low to projected anthropogenic forcing

• DOI: 10.1002/2015gl067143
• 发表时间: 2016-01-16
• 期刊: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Hosking, J. Scott;Orr, Andrew;Turner, John
• 通讯作者: Turner, John

Summer Drivers of Atmospheric Variability Affecting Ice Shelf Thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

• DOI: 10.1029/2018gl077092
• 发表时间: 2018-05-16
• 期刊: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Deb, Pranab;Orr, Andrew;Hosking, J. Scott
• 通讯作者: Hosking, J. Scott

Variability and trends in the Southern Hemisphere high latitude, quasi-stationary planetary waves

南半球高纬度准静止行星波的变化和趋势

• DOI: 10.1002/joc.4848
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: International Journal of Climatology
• 作者: Turner J

The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation

• DOI: 10.1002/2015gl067055
• 发表时间: 2015-12
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: T. Bracegirdle;D. Stephenson;J. Turner;T. Phillips

Sensitivity of simulated summer monsoonal precipitation in Langtang Valley, Himalaya, to cloud microphysics schemes in WRF

• DOI: 10.1002/2016jd025801
• 发表时间: 2017-06
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 作者: A. Orr;C. Listowski;M. Couttet;E. Collier;W. Immerzeel;P. Deb;D. Bannister