Improving Prediction of Fronts

改进锋面预测

• 批准号: NE/K012533/1
• 负责人: Colin Cotter
• 金额: $ 38.93万
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FK012533%2F1
• 关键词: Improving; Prediction; Fronts

Once a weathermodel has been initialised from our best estimate of the current stateof the atmosphere, it will diverge from the real state of theatmosphere over time. The period of time during which a singledeterministic weather model provides useful information is known asthe "useful forecast range'', which provides a measure of thepredictive skill of the model. For example, the ECMWF useful forecastrange is now typically between 7 and 10 days. Extending the useful forecast range of weatherforecasts (and improving accuracy over that range) would have clearbenefits to society and the economy; benefits include: energy management, protection ofinfrastructure, coordinating disaster response, agricultural planning,planning in travel and leisure industries, transportation management,targeting of weather-sensitive health conditions, water resourcemanagement, improved decision making in commodity markets,environmental decision making and natural resource management. In thisproject, we will develop a means of understanding of some currentlimitations to predictive skill and the useful forecast range, andwill investigate practical methodologies for removing them. This is ofcourse a huge topic; we shall restrict our investigation to the drydynamical core (the part of the model that predicts winds, temperatures and pressures), and concentrate on one important phenomena, namely theevolution of fronts and, in particular, the resulting feedback on the large scale atmospheric circulation. Fronts play a key role in the delivery ofprecipitation, and many severe weather events, which have an importantrole in all of the socioeconomic areas discussed above. The challenge associated with fronts is that although the distance from one side of a weather frontto another is very small compared to the distance between two grid points inan operational forecast model, fronts have a significant impact on the wind speedand direction as well as the pressure over a large region around the front. The aim of this projectis to find improvements in dynamical core design that can improve the predictionof the winds and pressures in the vicinity of fronts.

一旦一个天气模型已经从我们对当前大气状态的最佳估计中初始化，它将随着时间的推移而偏离大气的真实的状态。一个单一的确定性天气模型提供有用信息的时间段被称为“有用的预报范围”，它提供了一个衡量模型预测能力的尺度。例如，ECMWF的有用预报现在通常在7到10天之间。扩大天气预报的预报范围（以及在该范围内提高精度）将对社会和经济产生明显的好处;好处包括：能源管理、基础设施保护、协调灾害应对、农业规划、旅游和休闲业规划、运输管理、针对对天气敏感的健康状况、水资源管理、改善商品市场决策，环境决策和自然资源管理。在这个项目中，我们将开发一种方法来理解当前预测技能和有用的预测范围的一些限制，并将研究消除这些限制的实用方法。这当然是一个巨大的课题;我们将把我们的研究限制在干动力学核心（预测风、温度和压力的模型部分），并集中在一个重要的现象上，即锋面的演变，特别是由此产生的对大尺度大气环流的反馈。锋面在降水和许多恶劣天气事件的输送中起着关键作用，这些事件在上面讨论的所有社会经济领域都有重要作用。与锋面相关的挑战是，尽管与业务预报模型中两个网格点之间的距离相比，从天气锋面一侧到另一侧的距离非常小，但锋面对风速和方向以及锋面周围大片区域的压力有显著影响。这个项目的目的是找到动力核心设计的改进，可以提高预测的风和压力在锋附近。

项目成果

Embedded discontinuous Galerkin transport schemes with localised limiters

具有局部限制器的嵌入式不连续伽辽金输运方案

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jcp.2016.02.021
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: J. Comput. Phys.
• 作者: C.J. Cotter;D. Kuzmin
• 通讯作者: D. Kuzmin

Automated Generation and Symbolic Manipulation of Tensor Product Finite Elements

• DOI: 10.1137/15m1021167
• 发表时间: 2014-11
• 期刊: ArXiv
• 作者: Andrew T. T. McRae-Andrew-T.-T.-McRae-3013986;Gheorghe-Teodor Bercea;L. Mitchell;D. Ham;C. Cotter

Vertical slice modelling of nonlinear Eady waves using a compatible finite element method

使用兼容的有限元方法对非线性 Eady 波进行垂直切片建模

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jcp.2017.04.006
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: Journal of Computational Physics
• 影响因子: 4.1
• 作者: Yamazaki H

Mixed finite elements for global tide models.

• DOI: 10.1007/s00211-015-0748-z
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Numerische mathematik
• 影响因子: 2.1
• 作者: Cotter CJ;Kirby RC
• 通讯作者: Kirby RC

Variational formulations of sound-proof models Variational Sound-Proof Models

隔音模型的变分公式 变分隔音模型

• DOI: 10.1002/qj.2260
• 发表时间: 2014
• 期刊: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Cotter C