Risks and Responses to Urban Futures: integrating peri-urban/urban synergies into urban development planning for enhanced ecosystem service benefits.

城市化为许多人创造了新的机会，同时也导致贫困和环境退化在城市周边地区的集中程度急剧增加。城市周边地区处于城乡交界处，将农村生计与城市生活方式联系起来，给城市周边生态系统带来多重压力。这对越来越多被剥夺公民权、贫穷和被边缘化的公民的健康和生计以及可持续的城市发展构成了巨大的挑战。提供食物和水等基本服务的城市政策借鉴了城市周边地区和更远地区的生态系统服务。与此同时，将污染活动和生活垃圾出口到城市周边地区会造成环境退化，对城市和城市周边社区产生不利影响。本研究项目旨在探索印度城市周边地区环境与贫困之间的交集，以及对城市发展的影响。我们的主要研究假设是，更好地理解城市周边环境及其与扶贫的关系将产生知识并动员人们，进而产生更有效的城市发展倡议。这些将在城市和城市周边社区之间建立亟需的协同效应，以支持扶贫目标。为了更好地理解高度动态的城市周边景观中生态系统和人类福祉的复杂相互作用，我们将使用时空建模来分析相互作用和权衡。这将涉及一次和二次数据的结合，以及开发新的建模方法，可用于支持加强可持续发展惠益和支持城市规划进程的倡议。我们将与城市周边社区合作，审查可持续发展(重点是与农业和粮食系统相关的可持续发展的初级数据收集)与贫困的多个层面(强调健康)之间的关系。我们利用这一新知识来确定对受影响社区的具体、当地、技术和机构干预措施，这将有助于维持环境及其支持的生计。我们还将确定政策切入点，与不同的利益攸关方合作，审查是否有可能将对城市周边环境与减贫目标之间相互作用的理解纳入决策过程和执行。目标政策和方案将包括与国家城市园艺倡议有关的政策和方案，该倡议旨在支持城市周边生产者并确保向城市供应新鲜农产品，以及城市废物管理和污染控制计划。空间分析将成为支持与政策行为者对话的工具的基础。为了进行比较，将以较粗的分辨率绘制另外五个城市(海得拉巴、班加罗尔、瓦拉纳西、加德满都和达卡)周围的部分城郊地区的地图，并将使用为德里开发的工具对根据详细案例研究中确定的重要性选择的一部分ES进行建模。使用5个城市和德里的数据，我们将探索使用时间序列、空间换时间和情景来探索当前(和未来)政策对环境和依赖的生计可能产生的影响的叙述和量化模型的使用。我们还将积极参与南亚其他城市的倡议，通过与项目相关的活动与其他印度城市以及尼泊尔和孟加拉国的合作伙伴建立网络。这一网络将促进共同开发可更广泛应用的政策参与的研究方法和工具。

Urbanisation brings the creation of new opportunities for many, while also resulting in a dramatic increase in the concentration of poverty and environmental degradation in peri-urban zones. Peri-urban areas, at the interface between urban and rural, link rural livelihoods with the urban lifestyles that put multiple pressures on peri-urban ecosystems. This poses huge challenges for the health and livelihoods of an increasing number of disenfranchised, poor and marginalised citizens, and for the sustainable urban development.Urban policies for provision of essential services such as food and water, draw upon ecosystem services (ES) from the peri-urban zone and from further and further afield. At the same time the export of polluting activities and domestic waste to peri-urban localities degrades ES, with adverse implications for urban and peri-urban communities.This research project aims to explore the intersections between ES and poverty in peri-urban areas of India, and implications for urban development. Our overarching research hypothesis is that a better understanding of peri-urban ES and relationships with poverty alleviation will generate knowledge and mobilize people, and in turn generate more effective urban development initiatives. These will build much needed synergies between urban and peri-urban communities to support poverty alleviation goals.To better understand the complex interactions of ES and human well-being in highly dynamic peri-urban landscapes, we will use spatio-temporal modelling to analyse interactions and trade-offs. This will involve a combination of primary and secondary data and the development of new approaches to modelling that could be used to support initiatives to enhance ES benefits and support urban planning processes.Empirical detailed case studies will be carried out in Delhi's National Capital Territory. We will work with peri-urban communities to examine the relationship between ES (emphasis on primary data collection for ES associated with agriculture and food systems) and multiple dimensions of poverty (emphasis on health). We use this new knowledge to identify specific, local, technical and institutional interventions with affected communities, that will help to sustain ES and the livelihoods that they support. We will also identify policy entry points, working with diverse stakeholders to examine the potential to integrate an understanding of the interaction between peri-urban ES and poverty alleviation goals into decision making processes and implementation. Target policies and programmes will include those associated with the national urban horticulture initiative, which aims to support peri-urban producers and ensure a supply of fresh produce to cities, and urban waste management and pollution control plans. The spatial analyses will form the basis of tools to support dialogue with policy actors.For comparison, parts of peri-urban areas around five additional cities (Hyderabad, Bangalore, Varanasi, Kathmandu and Dhaka) will be mapped at coarser resolution and a subset of ES, selected based on their importance identified in the detailed case studies, will be modelled using tools developed for Delhi. Using data from 5 cities and Delhi we will explore the use of time-series, space-for-time substitution and scenarios to explore the use of narratives and quantitative models of the likely impacts of current (and future) policies on ES and dependent livelihoods.We will also actively engage with initiatives in other south Asian cities, building a network with partners from other Indian cities and in Nepal and Bangladesh through project-linked activities. This network will facilitate the joint development of research approaches and tools for policy engagement that can be applied more widely.