TECHNOLOGY MARKET ASSESSMENT AND FOLLOW ON FUND APPLICATION SUPPORT FOR THE SAFE SOFTWARE TOOL

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Complex numerical models are core tools that are used in many industries. Their uses range from the design of complex mechanical structures such as windmills, over the analysis of windstorm risk across Europe for the insurance industry, to water management models used for developing sustainable use policies for the Thames region. Calibration and evaluation is difficult for these typically very complex and non-linear models, for which informal approaches such as trial-and-error, visual analysis or expert judgement quickly become unfeasible. More stringent quality criteria are increasingly demanded or even required for numerical models, which are used for design and policy development. Such analyses often also have to include uncertainty propagation through the model. Unless the uncertainty in the predictions produced by these models can be quantified and characterised they will not be suitable as a basis for decision-making. Specific tools are required to analyse, understand and convey these uncertainties, their sources and their effects on the model outputs. Such tools need to be easy to use and communicate to specialists and non-specialists alike.Within the NERC-funded CREDIBLE Project, we have developed a software toolbox named SAFE (Sensitivity Analysis For Everybody). SAFE is a numerical tool to perform Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), a set of statistical techniques providing a quantitative and structured approach to the development and analysis of numerical models. It implements a comprehensive suite of GSA methods and visualisation tools, combined in an extensively tested and user-friendly Toolbox. Since the CREDIBLE Project was specifically aimed at developing generic tools across a wide range of natural hazard domains, the Toolbox is well suited for further development into a completely generic software tool. The commercial potential of such GSA software product would extend to virtually any industrial domain where numerical models are used, from manufacturing companies to environmental consultancy or insurance. Although the GSA approaches implemented in SAFE are well established, validated and published, they are not readily accessible to a non-specialist audience and cannot quickly be implemented for new models. Existing software tools are either "bare" code, which requires significant programing expertise to implement, or very specialised tools that focus on a specific methodology and are not more widely applicable. The SAFE toolbox overcomes both these drawbacks, and we hope to develop it into a user-friendly, easily adaptable tool that can be used in a range of sectors.In our Pathfinder project, we intend to (i) investigate the market sectors that will be able to benefit most from the toolbox and therefore could be the most attractive market sectors to target for early adoption; (ii) to gain input from end-users on the technical and support features needed for the tool so to inform the technical development of the commercial version of SAFE; and (iii) to identify the best route to market for the product.Keywords: Numerical Modelling, Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Analysis, Calibration, Validation, EvaluationStakeholders: Industry, Government, Policymakers, Academia