The UK Earth system modelling project.

英国地球系统建模项目。

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    NE/N017951/1
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 205.26万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    英国
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助国家:
    英国
  • 起止时间:
    2016 至 无数据
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

Global climate change is one of the leading environmental threats facing mankind. To develop appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies requires accurate projections of the future state of the Earth's climate. To address this, the research community have developed Global Climate Models (GCMs) that describe the main physical processes in the coupled climate system. These mathematical-computer models are integrated forwards in simulated time, from a pre-industrial period (before ~1850) to present-day, forced by observed estimates of key greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane, ozone), aerosols and land-use. The models are then continued into the simulated future forced by a range of greenhouse gas, aerosol and land-use scenarios representing plausible future socio-economic development pathways. Each of the time-evolving model future climates are then compared to the pre-industrial and present-day climates from the same model. This analysis results in an ensemble of climate change estimates, linked to each of the applied development pathways, that can be used to assess potential socio-economic and ecological impacts and aid in the development of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies.GCMs have recently been further developed into Earth system models (ESMs). A key difference between ESMs and GCMs is the former include an interactive description of the global carbon cycle. Climate change is primarily driven by human emissions of carbon dioxide which traps a fraction of the Earth's emitted radiation in the atmosphere, warming it and the Earth's surface. This direct warming from increasing carbon dioxide can be amplified or damped by various feedbacks in the climate system (e.g. involving water vapour, clouds or sea-ice). A key determinant of the climate change impact of human-emitted carbon dioxide is how much of the emitted gas actually stays in the atmosphere where it can interact with the Earth's emitted radiation. Presently, around 50% of the carbon dioxide emitted by humans stays in the atmosphere, the remaining 50% being taken up, in roughly equal measures, by the terrestrial biosphere and the world oceans. There is increasing evidence to suggest the efficiency of these natural carbon reservoirs in absorbing human-emitted carbon dioxide may change in the future, being sensitive to both the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth system and to the induced climate change. A reduction in the uptake efficiency of Earth's natural carbon reservoirs would result in a larger fraction of emitted carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere and thereby a larger climate change (warming) for a given cumulative emission of carbon dioxide.To address the need to simulate both the changing global climate and the carbon cycle response to a changing climate and changing atmospheric composition, we are developing the 1st UK Earth system model, based on the core physical GCM, HadGEM3, developed at the Met Office. This development is a major collaboration between NERC centres and the Met Office, integrating a large body of core research and development into a single, world-leading ESM. This proposal aims to secure the NERC funding to maintain this collaboration. The project will support the final development and community release of the 1st UKESM models, as well as application of these models to a range of collaborative science experiments carried out at the international level to support the IPCC AR6. The project has a major emphasis on evaluating the full range of climate and biogeochemical processes and interactions simulated by UKESM1 models with an aim to increase confidence in future projections made with the models. The project will also generate and analyse a suite of such projections and deliver a set of robust estimates of Earth system change to UK government, business and the public. Finally, the project will initiate long-term development of a 2nd version of the UKESM model, for release ~2023.
全球气候变化是人类面临的主要环境威胁之一。要制定适当的减缓和适应战略,就需要准确预测地球气候的未来状况。为了解决这个问题,研究界已经开发了全球气候模式(GCM),描述耦合气候系统中的主要物理过程。这些模拟计算机模型在模拟时间中向前整合,从工业化前时期(1850年之前)到现在,受主要温室气体(如二氧化碳,甲烷,臭氧),气溶胶和土地使用的观测估计的影响。然后,这些模型继续模拟未来,这些未来是由一系列温室气体、气溶胶和土地使用情景所推动的,这些情景代表了未来可能的社会经济发展途径。然后将每个随时间演变的模型未来气候与同一模型的工业化前和当今气候进行比较。这种分析的结果是一套气候变化估计数,与每一种应用的发展途径相联系,可用于评估潜在的社会经济和生态影响,并有助于制定气候变化减缓和适应政策。ESM和GCM之间的一个关键区别是前者包括对全球碳循环的交互式描述。气候变化主要是由人类排放的二氧化碳造成的,二氧化碳将地球排放的一部分辐射截留在大气中,使大气和地球表面变暖。二氧化碳增加造成的这种直接升温可因气候系统中的各种反馈(例如涉及水蒸气、云或海冰)而放大或减弱。人类排放的二氧化碳对气候变化影响的一个关键决定因素是,有多少排放的气体实际上留在大气中,在那里它可以与地球排放的辐射相互作用。目前,人类排放的二氧化碳中约有50%停留在大气中,其余50%被陆地生物圈和世界海洋以大致相等的方式吸收。越来越多的证据表明,这些天然碳库在吸收人类排放的二氧化碳方面的效率可能会在未来发生变化,因为它们对地球系统中二氧化碳的浓度和引起的气候变化都很敏感。地球天然碳库吸收效率的降低将导致排放的二氧化碳中有更大部分留在大气中,从而在二氧化碳累积排放量一定的情况下造成更大的气候变化(变暖),为了满足模拟全球气候变化和碳循环对气候变化和大气成分变化的反应的需要,我们正在开发第一个英国地球系统模型,该模型基于英国气象局开发的核心物理GCM HadGEM 3。这一发展是NERC中心和气象局之间的重大合作,将大量核心研究和开发整合到一个单一的世界领先的ESM中。该提案旨在确保NERC提供资金以维持这种合作。该项目将支持第一个UKESM模型的最终开发和社区发布,以及将这些模型应用于在国际一级开展的一系列合作科学实验,以支持IPCC AR6。该项目的主要重点是评估UKESM 1模式模拟的各种气候和地球化学过程和相互作用,目的是增加对未来模型预测的信心。该项目还将生成和分析一套此类预测,并向英国政府、企业和公众提供一套关于地球系统变化的可靠估计。最后,该项目将启动UKESM模型第二版本的长期开发,预计将于2023年发布。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(10)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Amazon forest response to CO2 fertilization dependent on plant phosphorus acquisition
  • DOI:
    10.1038/s41561-019-0404-9
  • 发表时间:
    2019-09-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    18.3
  • 作者:
    Fleischer, Katrin;Rammig, Anja;Lapola, David M.
  • 通讯作者:
    Lapola, David M.
Nocturnal plant respiration is under strong non-temperature control.
  • DOI:
    10.1038/s41467-022-33370-1
  • 发表时间:
    2022-09-26
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    16.6
  • 作者:
  • 通讯作者:
Assessing MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields tree cover product (collection 6): performance and applicability in tropical forests and savannas
评估 MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields 树木覆盖产品(集合 6):热带森林和稀树草原的性能和适用性
  • DOI:
    10.5194/bg-2020-460
  • 发表时间:
    2021
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Adzhar R
  • 通讯作者:
    Adzhar R
Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1
MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields tree cover needs calibrating in tropical savannas
  • DOI:
    10.5194/bg-19-1377-2022
  • 发表时间:
    2022-03
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    4.9
  • 作者:
    Rahayu Adzhar;D. Kelley;N. Dong;Charles T. George;Mireia Torello Raventos;E. Veenendaal;T. Feldpausch;O. Phillips;S. Lewis;B. Sonké;H. Taedoumg;Beatriz Schwantes Marimon;T. Domingues;L. Arroyo;G. Djagbletey;G. Saiz;F. Gerard
  • 通讯作者:
    Rahayu Adzhar;D. Kelley;N. Dong;Charles T. George;Mireia Torello Raventos;E. Veenendaal;T. Feldpausch;O. Phillips;S. Lewis;B. Sonké;H. Taedoumg;Beatriz Schwantes Marimon;T. Domingues;L. Arroyo;G. Djagbletey;G. Saiz;F. Gerard
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Douglas Clark其他文献

Structural Changes in the Forest Sector and Their Long-term Consequences for the Forest Sector
林业部门的结构变化及其对林业部门的长期影响
Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of CD4-Anchoring Bi-Functional Fusion Inhibitor in Monkeys
CD4锚定双功能融合抑制剂在猴体内的药代动力学和药效学
  • DOI:
    10.1007/s11095-013-1203-4
  • 发表时间:
    2014
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.7
  • 作者:
    Xingrong Liu;Y. Ou;Jun Zhang;A. Ahene;Douglas Clark;S. Hsieh;M. Cooper;Changhua Ji
  • 通讯作者:
    Changhua Ji
Inhaled Corticosteroid Use and Risk of Non-vertebral Fracture Among Adults With Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease in UK General Practice
  • DOI:
    10.1378/chest.124.4_meetingabstracts.166s-a
  • 发表时间:
    2003-01-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
  • 作者:
    Kourtney J. Davis;Douglas Clark;Katherine Knobil
  • 通讯作者:
    Katherine Knobil
Clark, Timothy W., Murray B. Rutherford, and Denise Casey (eds): Coexisting with Large Carnivores: Lessons from Greater Yellowstone
  • DOI:
    10.1007/s11077-007-9037-8
  • 发表时间:
    2007-09-06
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.700
  • 作者:
    Douglas Clark
  • 通讯作者:
    Douglas Clark

Douglas Clark的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Douglas Clark', 18)}}的其他基金

EAGER: Testing Late-Pleistocene and Holocene Climate Change in Southeastern Australia with Multi-proxy Analyses of Alpine Lake Sediments, Kosciuszko National Park, Australia
EAGER:通过对澳大利亚科修斯科国家公园高山湖泊沉积物的多代理分析来测试澳大利亚东南部更新世晚期和全新世气候变化
  • 批准号:
    2023027
  • 财政年份:
    2020
  • 资助金额:
    $ 205.26万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Quinquennial (half-decadal) carbon and nutrient dynamics in temperate forests: Implications for carbon sequestration in a high carbon dioxide world
温带森林五年(半十年)碳和养分动态:对高二氧化碳世界中碳封存的影响
  • 批准号:
    NE/S015744/2
  • 财政年份:
    2019
  • 资助金额:
    $ 205.26万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Quinquennial (half-decadal) carbon and nutrient dynamics in temperate forests: Implications for carbon sequestration in a high carbon dioxide world
温带森林五年(半十年)碳和养分动态:对高二氧化碳世界中碳封存的影响
  • 批准号:
    NE/S015744/1
  • 财政年份:
    2019
  • 资助金额:
    $ 205.26万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Enhancing Games with Assessment and Metacognitive Emphases (EGAME)
通过评估和元认知重点增强游戏 (EGAME)
  • 批准号:
    1119290
  • 财政年份:
    2011
  • 资助金额:
    $ 205.26万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
E: Scaffolding Understanding by Redesigning Games for Education (SURGE)
E:通过重新设计教育游戏来理解脚手架(SURGE)
  • 批准号:
    1019170
  • 财政年份:
    2010
  • 资助金额:
    $ 205.26万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: P2C2--Ice Core Paleoclimate Records from Combatant Col, British Columbia, Canada
合作研究:P2C2——加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省战斗上校的冰芯古气候记录
  • 批准号:
    0902392
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 205.26万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
E: Scaffolding Understanding by Redesigning Games for Education (SURGE)
E:通过重新设计教育游戏来理解脚手架(SURGE)
  • 批准号:
    0822370
  • 财政年份:
    2008
  • 资助金额:
    $ 205.26万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: SGER: Ice Core Paleoclimate Record from Mt. Waddington, British Columbia Coast Range
合作研究:SGER:来自不列颠哥伦比亚省海岸山脉沃丁顿山的冰芯古气候记录
  • 批准号:
    0629497
  • 财政年份:
    2006
  • 资助金额:
    $ 205.26万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Biocatalyst Engineering for Maximum Activity in Nonaqueous Media
在非水介质中实现最大活性的生物催化剂工程
  • 批准号:
    0228145
  • 财政年份:
    2003
  • 资助金额:
    $ 205.26万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
ME: Collaborative Research: Deployment of Enhanced Stress Responses to Improve Recombinant Expression Systems
ME:协作研究:部署增强的应激反应以改进重组表达系统
  • 批准号:
    0224733
  • 财政年份:
    2002
  • 资助金额:
    $ 205.26万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant

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基于Google Earth Engine云平台的遥感图像去云研究
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EAGER: Generalizing Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST)-based Surface Layer Parameterizations for Turbulence Resolving Earth System Models (ESMs)
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  • 批准号:
    2414424
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    $ 205.26万
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AI4PEX: Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for Enhanced Representation of Processes and Extremes in Earth System Models
AI4PEX:人工智能和机器学习,用于增强地球系统模型中过程和极值的表示
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CERTAINTY: Cloud-aERosol inTeractions & their impActs IN The earth sYstem
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SBIR Phase II: Low Earth Orbit Navigation System (LEONS) - The Ground Network
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Climate Tipping Points: Uncertainty-aware quantification of Earth system tipping potential from observations and models and assessment of associated climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic impacts
气候临界点:通过观测和模型以及对相关气候、生态和社会经济影响的评估,对地球系统潜在的不确定性进行量化
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