New field-scale calibration for turbidity current impact modelling

用于浊流影响建模的新现场尺度校准

• 批准号: NE/P009190/1
• 负责人: Mike Clare
• 金额: $ 15.27万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP009190%2F1
• 关键词: New; field; scale; calibration; turbidity

Subsea infrastructure networks underpin our daily lives, providing critical global communication links and supporting our demand for energy supplies. These strategically important networks are vulnerable to fast-moving seafloor flows of sediment, known as turbidity currents. Such flows have previously broken important subsea cable connections; leading to £Ms in lost financial trading and repair costs. The seafloor cable network transfers >95% of all global communications traffic. The International Cable Protection Committee (represented by partner Carter) has a vested interest in understanding the risk of turbidity currents, but there is a paucity of direct field measurements of turbidity currents. Thus, numerical models are largely based on scaled down experimental studies. Here, we show how the first deep-ocean high resolution measurements of turbidity currents can enable improved understanding of the risk posed, through calibration of numerical models for impact analysis. This will directly benefit partners Chevron and Shell, who are responsible for ensuring safe operation of multi-£M seafloor oil and gas pipelines worldwide. Loss of hydrocarbons to the environment can have severe environmental and reputational implications; hence minimising the risk of a pipe rupture is important. Improvements to modelling will be immediately taken up by partner HR Wallingford, who advise a wide range of owners and stakeholders on hazard assessment for seafloor infrastructure. We aim to address the following questions: [1] How can emerging direct monitoring technology lead to a step-change in assessment of turbidity current risk to offshore infrastructure? Until recently, there were no direct measurements of turbidity currents due to the difficulties in deployment in remote and challenging subsea environments. New advances in technology have enabled the first measurements of velocity and concentration in deep-ocean turbidity currents. Techniques developed for, and lessons learned from, the monitoring of flows at a number of sites will be transferred to industry partners. This first aim is thus to help improve how industry assesses turbidity current hazards by using the first ever direct measurements. [2] How appropriate are existing models and how should they be revised based on new field-scale calibrations? As no comparable datasets exist, this new direct monitoring provides a unique opportunity to validate, test and refine numerical models of turbidity current. We will first assess how appropriate existing flows employed by industry are at recreating real flow behaviour. We will then run variants of a depth-resolved model developed by Dorrell. The aim is to provide a modelling approach that is acceptable in terms of computational cost, and that can recreate observations from direct monitoring. Specific guidance will be provided to the partners on how models should be developed to assess impact of turbidity currents on seafloor infrastructure. [3] What impact do real-world turbidity currents have on seafloor infrastructure? We will then quantify turbidity current impact on a range of seafloor infrastructure. This is novel because it will involve the application of new models based on the first deep-sea direct monitoring data. The analysis will transform industry understanding of impacts and mitigation strategies. Deliverables will include: (i) Report outlining industry best practice for turbidity current hazard assessment; (ii) New numerical modelling approach outlined in a workshop; (iii) Summary report detailing the modelled impacts of real-world turbidity currents on a range of seafloor infrastructure, and guidance for design, mitigation measures and future data acquisition strategies. Project cost = £87.2k (at 80% FEC) over 12 months.

海底基础设施网络支撑着我们的日常生活，提供关键的全球通信链路，并支持我们对能源供应的需求。这些具有重要战略意义的网络很容易受到快速移动的海底沉积物流的影响，即所谓的浊度流。此前，此类水流破坏了重要的海底电缆连接；导致金融交易和维修成本损失达50万英镑。海底电缆网络传输了全球95%的通信流量。国际电缆保护委员会（由合作伙伴Carter代表）在了解浊度流的风险方面有既得利益，但缺乏浊度流的直接现场测量。因此，数值模型在很大程度上是基于按比例缩小的实验研究。在这里，我们展示了第一次深海高分辨率浊度流测量如何通过校准影响分析的数值模型来提高对所构成风险的理解。这将直接使合作伙伴雪佛龙和壳牌受益，这两家公司负责确保全球价值数百万英镑的海底油气管道的安全运行。碳氢化合物流失到环境中会对环境和声誉造成严重影响；因此，尽量减少管道破裂的风险是很重要的。合作伙伴HR Wallingford将立即对模型进行改进，他们为海底基础设施的危害评估提供广泛的业主和利益相关者建议。我们的目标是解决以下问题：[1]新兴的直接监测技术如何导致海上基础设施浊度流风险评估的阶段性变化？直到最近，由于在偏远和具有挑战性的海底环境中部署困难，还没有对浊度流进行直接测量。技术上的新进展使人们能够首次测量深海浑浊流的流速和浓度。为监测若干地点的流量而开发的技术和从中吸取的经验教训将转让给工业伙伴。因此，第一个目标是通过使用首次直接测量来帮助改进行业如何评估浊度电流危害。[2]现有模式是否合适？应如何根据新的现场尺度校准对其进行修订？由于没有可比的数据集存在，这种新的直接监测提供了一个独特的机会来验证、测试和完善浊度流的数值模型。我们将首先评估工业使用的现有流动在重建真实流动行为方面的适当程度。然后，我们将运行Dorrell开发的深度分辨模型的变体。其目的是提供一种在计算成本方面可以接受的建模方法，并且可以从直接监测中重建观测结果。将向合作伙伴提供具体指导，说明应如何开发模型以评估浊流对海底基础设施的影响。真实世界的浊度流对海底基础设施有什么影响？然后，我们将量化浊流对一系列海底基础设施的影响。这是新颖的，因为它将涉及基于第一个深海直接监测数据的新模型的应用。该分析将改变行业对影响和缓解战略的理解。交付成果将包括：(i)概述浊度电流危害评估行业最佳实践的报告；讲习班上概述的新的数值模拟方法；（三）简要报告，详细说明现实世界浊度流对一系列海底基础设施的模拟影响，并为设计、缓解措施和未来数据获取战略提供指导。项目成本= 87.2万英镑（80% FEC），为期12个月。

项目成果

Newly recognized turbidity current structure can explain prolonged flushing of submarine canyons.

• DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1700200
• 发表时间: 2017-10
• 期刊: Science advances
• 影响因子: 13.6
• 作者: Azpiroz-Zabala M;Cartigny MJB;Talling PJ;Parsons DR;Sumner EJ;Clare MA;Simmons SM;Cooper C;Pope EL
• 通讯作者: Pope EL

Lessons learned from monitoring of turbidity currents and guidance for future platform designs

从浊流监测中汲取的经验教训以及对未来平台设计的指导

• DOI: 10.31223/osf.io/4qtxj
• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Clare M

Predicting turbidity current activity offshore from meltwater-fed river deltas

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2022.117977
• 发表时间: 2023-02
• 期刊: Earth and Planetary Science Letters
• 影响因子: 5.3
• 作者: L. Bailey;M. Clare;E. Pope;I. Haigh;M. Cartigny;P. Talling;D. Lintern;S. Hage;M. Heijnen

A General Model for the Helical Structure of Geophysical Flows in Channel Bends

• DOI: 10.1002/2017gl075721
• 发表时间: 2017-12
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: M. Azpiroz-Zabala;M. Cartigny;E. Sumner;M. Clare;P. Talling;D. Parsons;C. Cooper

Complex and Cascading Triggering of Submarine Landslides and Turbidity Currents at Volcanic Islands Revealed From Integration of High-Resolution Onshore and Offshore Surveys

• DOI: 10.3389/feart.2018.00223
• 发表时间: 2018-09
• 期刊: Frontiers in Earth Science
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: M. Clare;T. Le Bas;D. Price;J. Hunt;D. Sear;M. Cartigny;A. Vellinga;W. Symons;C. Firth;S. Cronin