ENTOMOLOGICAL ASSUMPTIONS OF DENGUE CONTROL

描述（改编自申请人的摘要）：自废弃以来 在20世纪60年代后期，埃及伊蚊的根除工作，登革热的目标， 控制计划一直是为了预防严重形式的疾病（DHF/DSS）， 将蚊子媒介数量减少到显著降低的水平， 不排除病毒传播。 这一战略假设一个定量的 蚊子密度与登革热传播强度的关系 从未被测试过 本项目的目标是确定 这种关系的本质。 也就是说，直接测量登革热 在将蚊子种群密度降低到 最小（消除）和最大（无影响）阈值之间。 我们将 利用传统和新型昆虫监测技术监测 蚊子种群和测量登革热血清学转化 作为登革热指标的秘鲁学龄儿童队列中的病毒 传输 我们将描述Ae之间的关系。aegypti 多因素Logistic回归分析 分析。 利用昆虫学资料研究成虫的容器类型和指数 蚊子密度和血清阳性率数据，我们将参数化登革热 计算机模拟模型，该模型集成了现场特定信息， 蚊子与人类年龄结构、人类血清阳性率和天气的关系 数据 使用该模型，我们将估计蚊子密度阈值和 蚊子数量减少对登革热风险的影响。 因为，几乎 据信影响登革热传播的所有因素在空间上是变化的， 我们研究中收集的所有数据将按地理位置编入索引。 我们将使用 克里金技术，以表征参数中的空间模式， 绘制蚊子数量和登革热风险插值图。 第一 2年的研究将致力于收集昆虫和 血清学数据，索引地理信息，并表征 蚊子数量和登革热传播的现有空间格局。 在随后的几年中，我们将量化病媒控制的效果 对感染发生率的干预。 我们的研究将（1）首先 直接测试登革热传播的昆虫学阈值，（2） 第一个从经验上检验蚊子密度 和登革热病毒传播，和（3）有直接的应用，以控制 全球登革热。

DESCRIPTION (Adapted from the applicant's Abstract): Since the abandonment of Aedes aegypti eradication efforts in the late 1960's, the goal of dengue control programs has been to prevent severe forms of disease (DHF/DSS) by reducing mosquito vector populations to levels that significantly lower, but do not eliminate virus transmission. This strategy assumes a quantitative relationship between mosquito densities and intensity of dengue transmission which has never been tested. The objective of this project is to determine the nature of that relationship. That is, to measure directly dengue transmission rates after lowering mosquito population densities to levels between minimum (elimination) and maximum (no effect) thresholds. We will use traditional and novel entomological surveillance techniques to monitor mosquito populations and measure serological conversion against dengue viruses in cohorts of Peruvian school children as an index of dengue transmission. We will characterize the relationship between Ae. aegypti abundance and dengue seroconversion rates with multiple logistic regression analyses. Using entomological data on container type and indices of adult mosquito density and seroprevalence data, we will parameterize a dengue computer simulation model that integrates site specific information on mosquitoes with human age structure, human seroprevalence rates, and weather data. Using the model, we will estimate mosquito density thresholds and the effects of mosquito population reductions on dengue risk. Because, nearly all factors influencing dengue transmission are believed to vary spatially, all data gathered in our study will be indexed geographically. We will use kriging techniques to characterize spatial patterns in parameters and to develop interpolated maps for mosquito abundance and dengue risk. The first 2 years of our study will be devoted to gathering entomological and serological data, indexing geographic information, and characterizing the existing spatial patterns of mosquito abundance and dengue transmission. During subsequent years, we will quantify the effects of vector control interventions on incidence of infection. Our study will (1) be the first to test directly the entomological thresholds of dengue transmission, (2) be the first to examine empirically the relationship between mosquito density and dengue virus transmission, and (3) have direct application to control of dengue worldwide.