Environmental Variability, Migration, and Rural Livelihoods

描述（由申请人提供）：很少有人知道环境变化和可变性塑造移民决策的方式，因此，人口再分布。这种理解很重要，因为移徙对个人和社区的健康和福祉有影响。此外，鉴于政府间气候变化专门委员会最近发布的报告称，气候系统发生了“明确的”变化（IPCC 2007：4），预计未来区域降水和温度模式将继续发生变化，因此必须更好地了解移徙的环境层面。其中许多变化将对已经脆弱的地区产生最严重的影响，包括我们的研究环境南非农村，预计那里的降水和温度会发生变化。在这些农村地区，生计往往严重依赖当地自然资源。重要的陆上活动包括可耕地、畜牧业以及自然资源的消费和贸易（例如，薪材、野生草药）。自然资源还可作为“缓冲器”，抵御失业和/或死亡等家庭冲击。鉴于对资源的高度依赖，当地植被覆盖的变化（由于降水/温度模式的变化）具有影响生计的巨大潜力。关于向外移徙，生计选择的减少可成为形成移徙趋势的“推动”因素。使用“农村生计”的框架，我们的模型之间的关联外迁（2002年和2007年）和当地自然资源的可用性和可变性（2002-2006年）内的健康和人口监测网站，阿金库尔卫生和人口股（AHPU）。位于南非东北部贫困农村地区的AHPU自1992年以来每隔12至18个月收集21个村庄12，000多户家庭的人口普查数据。此外，它的位置在一个陡峭的局部拓扑梯度提供了很大的变化，在整个研究设置的植被可用性。我们结合联合收割机的社会经济和遥感数据测量当地的“绿色”，并开发多变量的空间信息模型，以检查外迁和邻近的自然资源的可用性和可变性。除了具体的研究成果外，该项目还旨在作为开发纵向模型的基础，利用人口监测环境提供的人口-环境分析能力。事实上，有几个设置与现有的，适当的数据建模之间的社会经济和环境过程和健康和人口监测网站的关联代表了独特的机会，以解决这些复杂的关联。 公共卫生相关性：这项研究将增进对农村生计，特别是与移徙决定有关的生计与欠发达国家贫困农村地区环境变化之间关系的了解。这些地区的居民特别容易受到环境变化的影响，因为他们高度依赖当地的自然资源，如薪材和野生食物。移徙可以是应对当地自然资源供应变化的一种应对战略，尽管搬迁对移徙者以及接收地区的个人和社区的健康和福祉具有重要影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Little is known about the ways in which environmental change and variability shape migration decision-making and, therefore, population redistribution. Such understanding is important because migration has implications for the health and well-being of individuals and communities. In addition, an improved understanding of migration's environmental dimensions is essential given the recently-released report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which asserts there are "unequivocal" changes in the climate system (IPCC 2007:4) with future expectations of continued shifts in regional precipitation and temperature patterns. Many of these changes will most severely impact already-vulnerable regions including rural South Africa, our study setting, where precipitation and temperature shifts are anticipated. In these rural settings, livelihoods are often characterized by heavy dependence on local natural resources. Important land-based activities include arable farming, livestock husbandry, and consumption and trade in natural resources (e.g., fuelwood, wild herbs). Natural resources also act as "buffers" against household shocks such as job loss and/or mortality. Given this high level of resource dependence, changes in local vegetation cover (due to shifts in precipitation/temperature patterns) hold tremendous potential to impact livelihoods. As related to outmigration, a decline in livelihood options can act as a "push" factor shaping migration trends. Using a "Rural Livelihoods" framework, we model the association between outmigration (in 2002 and 2007) and the availability and variability of local natural resources (2002-2006) within a health and demographic surveillance site, the Agincourt Health and Population Unit (AHPU). Located in an impoverished rural area in the South Africa's northeast, the AHPU has collected census data at 12-18 month intervals since 1992 from over 12,000 households in 21 villages. In addition, its location within a steep local topological gradient affords substantial variation in vegetation availability across the study setting. We combine socioeconomic and remotely sensed data measuring local "greenness," and develop multivariate spatially-informed models to examine outmigration and the availability and variability of proximate natural resources. In addition to specific research results, this project is designed as a foundation for development of longitudinal models tapping into the analytical strength for population-environment provided by demographic surveillance settings. Indeed, there are few settings with existing, appropriate data for modeling the associations between socioeconomic and environmental processes and health and demographic surveillance sites represent unique opportunities to grapple with these complex associations. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This research will improve understanding of the association between rural livelihoods, especially related to migration decisions, and environmental change in impoverished rural areas of less developed countries. Residents of these regions are especially vulnerable to environmental changes due to high reliance on local natural resources such as fuelwood and wild foods. Migration can be a coping strategy in response to changes in the availability of local natural resources, although relocation has important consequences for health and well-being of migrants and of individuals and communities in receiving areas.