Design and analysis of computer experiments, structural equation modelling and wavelet analysis of daily flows

日常流量的计算机实验、结构方程建模和小波分析的设计和分析

• 批准号: 36329-2007
• 负责人: Lye, Leonard
• 金额: $ 1.46万
• 依托单位: Memorial University of Newfoundland
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2007-01-01 至 2008-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=366207
• 关键词: Design; analysis; computer; experiments; structural

This research proposal has four main objectives: 1) to investigate the use of recently developed design and analysis of computer experiments methodology for the surrogate modelling of complex environmental/civil engineering models. If successful, this surrogate model will reduce considerably the computing efforts for subsequent uncertainty, sensitivity, and Monte-Carlo analyses of complex computer models; 2) to investigate the possibility of using the response surface methodology techniques in extracting an explicit model from an artificial neural network. The absence of an explicit model associated with the ANNs makes it difficult for the networks to be reproduced and therefore not easily integrated to form coupled models for example. Explicit model extraction from various ANNs ranging in complexity will be investigated. The applicability and limitations of RSM will be comprehensively explored;(3) to investigate the application of structural equation modelling (SEM) for regional flow analysis and environmental modelling.  The rapid progress made in terms of theory and software development warrants a new look at this method that has enjoyed exponential growth in usage in many fields of study. Regional flow analysis data and environmental monitoring data from Newfoundland will be used as case studies. The proposed method will also be compared to currently used methods; and 4) to investigate the application of wavelets analysis methods for daily river flow modelling.  Wavelets has been found to be especially useful for analyzing time series with non-stationary or transitory characteristics such as drifts, trends, abrupt changes, self-similarity, and beginnings and ends of events, much like daily river flow series. This proposal will compare the proposed method with traditional methods. The results of this research will be especially useful to engineers involved in hydrological and environmental modelling. It will provide more efficient tools to tackle the increasing complex problems that engineers face.

本研究计划有四个主要目的：1）研究使用最近发展的设计和分析的计算机实验方法的替代建模的复杂的环境/土木工程模型。如果成功的话，这种代理模型将大大减少计算工作的后续不确定性，灵敏度，和蒙特-卡罗分析的复杂的计算机模型; 2）调查的可能性，使用响应面方法技术提取一个显式模型从人工神经网络。缺乏与ANN相关的显式模型使得网络难以复制，因此不容易集成以形成耦合模型。显式模型提取各种人工神经网络的复杂性将进行调查。（3）探讨结构方程模型（SEM）在区域水流分析和环境模拟中的应用，随着SEM在理论和软件方面的快速发展，这一方法在许多研究领域中的应用呈指数增长。纽芬兰的区域水流分析数据和环境监测数据将用作个案研究。4）探讨小波分析方法在河流日流量模拟中的应用，发现小波分析方法在分析具有非平稳或瞬时特征的时间序列（如漂移、趋势、突变、自相似性和事件的开始和结束）时特别有用，这与河流日流量序列非常相似。本提案将对所提出的方法与传统方法进行比较。这项研究的结果将对参与水文和环境建模的工程师特别有用。它将提供更有效的工具来解决工程师面临的日益复杂的问题。