Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Hydrological Extremes

气候变化对水资源和水文极端事件的影响

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-04808
• 负责人: Tsanis, Ioannis
• 金额: $ 1.6万
• 依托单位: McMaster University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2014-01-01 至 2015-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=566753
• 关键词: Impact; Climate; Change; Water; Resources

As demand for freshwater on a global scale rises, land use (LU) and climate change (CC) render its availability into the future uncertain. CC is expected to affect local water availability, river discharge, and the seasonal availability of water supply, thus making adaptation measures for water indispensable for a wide range of social and environmental aspects. In this context, the applicant has contributed to understanding the effects of CC on the hydrometeorological variables at global scale. His contributions includes analysis of global precipitation projections that indicates that today’s extreme events will intensify, i.e., precipitation on average is likely to be less frequent but more intense and droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in some regions. Hydrological modeling at watershed scale in the Mediterranean reveals the potential of an increased risk of severe flooding and prolonged droughts alongside a gradual decrease in water availability till 2100, thus suggesting that existing practices and policies for CC adaptation need to be improved and updated. Spurring from this research, the applicant has taken initiatives to enhance CC research that have led to the assessment of data derived from the Regional Climate Model (RCM) REMO forcing set for hydrological and water resources studies in Canada that have so far yielded satisfactory results. The applicant has also proposed an improved bias correction method for daily GCM precipitation that radically reduces the correction induced uncertainty of a global precipitation ensemble projection for the 21st century. Using state-of-the-art RCM datasets, integrated studies bridging climate model output and basin scale modeling for extreme events have recently been conducted by the applicant for Canadian and European watersheds, showing that the quantitative impact of CC in basic hydrometeorologic characteristics can be substantial. The scope of the applicant’s research proposal is the advancement of fundamental understanding of CC impact on water resources and extremes with the key objectives of: (a) improving understanding of global climate change and its effects on floods and droughts through hydrological applications, (b) developing and extending CC analysis methodologies, (c) producing new high resolution climatic datasets suitable for water resources applications and extreme event research as well as their inherent risks, (d) providing training to researchers and disseminate information, methodologies and results. The methodology to be carried out will follow four main activities: (1) Adoption of non-hydrostatic RCMs in Canadian infrastructure, (2) Improved Bias Adjustment Method to downscale relevant hydrological variables to basin scale, (3) Evaluation of the decadal–scale prediction scheme and (4) Scenarios for water resources and hydrological extremes applications in Canada and in particular the Great Lakes region. The novelty of this proposal resides with the research in high priority areas (high resolution climate datasets for N. America using non-hydrostatic models, development and application of innovative methodologies, evaluation of the decadal–scale prediction scheme to produce time-evolving predictions of policy development applications). The proposed research is expected to have significant impact on both scientific and policy level. Improved understanding of the cross scale interactions of global climate and local water availability and extremes will promote both mitigation and adaptation measures against the impacts of CC. New methodologies and datasets will elevate the science of climate and hydrology further, driving the development of Canadian CC Research within the academic, public, industrial and government sectors.

随着全球范围内淡水需求的增加，土地利用（LU）和气候变化（CC）使未来的淡水供应变得不确定。预计气候变化将影响当地的水资源供应、河流流量和季节性供水供应，从而使水资源适应措施在广泛的社会和环境方面不可或缺。在此背景下，申请人有助于理解CC对全球尺度水文气象变量的影响。他的贡献包括对全球降水预测的分析，该预测表明，今天的极端事件将会加剧，即平均降水可能会减少，但会更加频繁，某些地区的干旱可能会变得更加频繁和严重。地中海流域尺度的水文模型显示，到2100年，严重洪水和长期干旱的风险可能会增加，同时可用水逐渐减少，因此表明需要改进和更新现有的适应气候变化的做法和政策。在这项研究的推动下，申请人已采取措施加强CC研究，从而对加拿大水文和水资源研究的区域气候模式（RCM） REMO强迫集的数据进行了评估，迄今为止取得了令人满意的结果。申请人还提出了一种改进的GCM日降水的偏差校正方法，从根本上降低了21世纪全球降水综合预估的校正引起的不确定性。申请人最近利用最先进的RCM数据集，对加拿大和欧洲流域进行了连接气候模式输出和流域尺度模拟的极端事件的综合研究，表明CC对基本水文气象特征的定量影响可能是实质性的。申请人的研究计划的范围是促进对气候变化对水资源和极端气候的影响的基本认识，主要目标是：(a)通过水文应用提高对全球气候变化及其对洪涝和干旱影响的认识；(b)发展和推广CC分析方法；(c)生产适用于水资源应用和极端事件研究及其固有风险的新的高分辨率气候数据集；(d)为研究人员提供培训并传播信息、方法和结果。实施的方法将遵循四个主要活动：(1)在加拿大基础设施中采用非流体静力rcm；(2)改进偏差调整方法，将相关水文变量降至流域尺度；(3)评估十年尺度预测方案；(4)加拿大，特别是大湖区水资源和水文极端应用情景。该建议的新颖之处在于对高优先领域的研究（使用非流体静力模型的北美高分辨率气候数据集，创新方法的开发和应用，对十年尺度预测方案的评估，以产生政策制定应用的时间演变预测）。预计该研究将在科学和政策层面产生重大影响。对全球气候与当地水资源可得性和极端事件的跨尺度相互作用的进一步了解，将促进针对气候变化影响的减缓和适应措施，新的方法和数据集将进一步提升气候和水文科学，推动加拿大气候变化研究在学术、公共、工业和政府部门的发展。