Climate Change Impact on Water Resources and Adaptation to Climate Extremes

随着全球范围对淡水的需求上升，土地利用和气候变化(CC)使未来的淡水供应变得不确定。CC预计将影响当地的水供应、河流流量和季节性供水，从而使水的适应措施在广泛的社会和环境方面不可或缺。在这方面，申请者有助于理解水文气象变量对全球、大陆和盆地尺度的影响。他的贡献包括对全球降水预测的分析，这表明今天的极端事件将会加剧。流域尺度的水文模拟揭示了严重洪灾和长期干旱风险增加的可能性，因此建议改进和更新现有的CC适应做法和政策。申请者将应用从高分辨率CC强迫集获得的最先进的气候数据，以将气候变化输出与流域规模建模要求联系起来。将开发一种改进的日气温和亚日降水量的偏差校正方法，从根本上减少不确定性。研究建议的范围是促进对CC对水资源和极端事件的影响的基本了解，主要目标是：(A)通过水文学应用提高对全球气候变化及其对洪水和干旱的影响的了解，(B)开发和推广CC分析方法，(C)产生适用于水资源和极端事件及其内在风险的新的高分辨率气候数据集，(D)为研究人员提供培训并传播信息、方法和结果。将开展的方法将遵循四项主要活动：(1)在加拿大地区采用非静力RCM，(2)改进的偏差调整方法，将相关的水文变量缩小到流域尺度，(3)十年尺度预报方案的评估，以及(4)加拿大水资源和水文极端应用的情景。这项提案的创新之处在于对高优先领域的研究(使用非静力模式的加拿大高分辨率气候数据集)、开发和应用减少不确定性的创新方法、评估十年尺度预测方案以产生政策制定应用的时间演变预测。预计拟议的研究将在科学和政策层面产生重大影响。更好地了解全球气候与当地可用水和极端情况之间的跨尺度相互作用，将促进针对CC影响的缓解和适应措施。新的方法和数据集将进一步提升气候和水文学的科学水平，推动加拿大CC研究在学术、公共、工业和政府部门的发展。

As demand for freshwater on a global scale rises, land use and climate change (CC) render its availability into the future uncertain. CC is expected to affect local water availability, river discharge, and the seasonal availability of water supply, thus making adaptation measures for water indispensable for a wide range of social and environmental aspects. In this context, the applicant has contributed to understanding the effects of the hydrometeorological variables on a global, continental and basin scale. His contributions includes analysis of global precipitation projections that indicates that today's extreme events will intensify. Hydrological modeling at watershed scale reveals the potential of an increased risk of severe flooding and prolonged droughts, thus suggesting that existing practices and policies for CC adaptation need to be improved and updated. The applicant will apply state-of-the-art climate data derived from high resolution CC forcing sets to bridge climate change output with the basin scale modeling requirements. An improved bias correction method for daily temperature and sub-daily precipitation that radically reduces the uncertainty will be developed. The scope of the research proposal is the advancement of fundamental understanding of CC impact on water resources and extremes with the key objectives of: (a) improving understanding of global climate change and its effects on floods and droughts through hydrological applications, (b) developing and extending CC analysis methodologies, (c) producing new high resolution climatic datasets suitable for water resources and extreme events research as well as their inherent risks, (d) providing training to researchers and disseminate information, methodologies and results. The methodology to be carried out will follow four main activities: (1) Adoption of non-hydrostatic RCMs in Canadian domain, (2) Improved Bias Adjustment Method to downscale relevant hydrological variables to basin scale, (3) Evaluation of the decadal-scale prediction scheme and (4) Scenarios for water resources and hydrological extremes applications in Canada. The novelty of this proposal resides with the research in high priority areas (high resolution climate datasets for Canada using non-hydrostatic models), development and application of innovative methodologies to reduce the uncertainty, evaluation of the decadal-scale prediction scheme to produce time-evolving predictions of policy development applications. The proposed research is expected to have a significant impact at both scientific and policy levels. Improved understanding of the cross scale interactions of global climate and local water availability and extremes will promote both mitigation and adaptation measures against the impacts of CC. New methodologies and datasets will elevate the science of climate and hydrology further, driving the development of Canadian CC Research within the academic, public, industrial and government sectors.