Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Hydrological Extremes

气候变化对水资源和水文极端事件的影响

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-04808
• 负责人: Tsanis, Ioannis
• 金额: $ 1.6万
• 依托单位: McMaster University
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=636571
• 关键词: Impact; Climate; Change; Water; Resources

As demand for freshwater on a global scale rises, land use (LU) and climate change (CC) render its availability into the future uncertain. CC is expected to affect local water availability, river discharge, and the seasonal availability of water supply, thus making adaptation measures for water indispensable for a wide range of social and environmental aspects.In this context, the applicant has contributed to understanding the effects of CC on the hydrometeorological variables at global scale. His contributions includes analysis of global precipitation projections that indicates that today’s extreme events will intensify, i.e., precipitation on average is likely to be less frequent but more intense and droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in some regions. Hydrological modeling at watershed scale in the Mediterranean reveals the potential of an increased risk of severe flooding and prolonged droughts alongside a gradual decrease in water availability till 2100, thus suggesting that existing practices and policies for CC adaptation need to be improved and updated. Spurring from this research, the applicant has taken initiatives to enhance CC research that have led to the assessment of data derived from the Regional Climate Model (RCM) REMO forcing set for hydrological and water resources studies in Canada that have so far yielded satisfactory results. The applicant has also proposed an improved bias correction method for daily GCM precipitation that radically reduces the correction induced uncertainty of a global precipitation ensemble projection for the 21st century. Using state-of-the-art RCM datasets, integrated studies bridging climate model output and basin scale modeling for extreme events have recently been conducted by the applicant for Canadian and European watersheds, showing that the quantitative impact of CC in basic hydrometeorologic characteristics can be substantial.The scope of the applicant’s research proposal is the advancement of fundamental understanding of CC impact on water resources and extremes with the key objectives of: (a) improving understanding of global climate change and its effects on floods and droughts through hydrological applications, (b) developing and extending CC analysis methodologies, (c) producing new high resolution climatic datasets suitable for water resources applications and extreme event research as well as their inherent risks, (d) providing training to researchers and disseminate information, methodologies and results. The methodology to be carried out will follow four main activities: (1) Adoption of non-hydrostatic RCMs in Canadian infrastructure, (2) Improved Bias Adjustment Method to downscale relevant hydrological variables to basin scale, (3) Evaluation of the decadal–scale prediction scheme and (4) Scenarios for water resources and hydrological extremes applications in Canada and in particular the Great Lakes region. The novelty of this proposal resides with the research in high priority areas (high resolution climate datasets for N. America using non-hydrostatic models, development and application of innovative methodologies, evaluation of the decadal–scale prediction scheme to produce time-evolving predictions of policy development applications).The proposed research is expected to have significant impact on both scientific and policy level. Improved understanding of the cross scale interactions of global climate and local water availability and extremes will promote both mitigation and adaptation measures against the impacts of CC. New methodologies and datasets will elevate the science of climate and hydrology further, driving the development of Canadian CC Research within the academic, public, industrial and government sectors.

随着全球范围内对淡水需求的增加，土地利用（LU）和气候变化（CC）使其未来的可用性变得不确定。预计气候变化将影响当地的水供应、河流排放和水供应的季节性供应，从而使水的适应措施对广泛的社会和环境方面不可或缺，在这方面，申请人为了解气候变化对全球范围水文气象变量的影响做出了贡献。他的贡献包括分析全球降水预测，表明今天的极端事件将加剧，即，平均而言，降水可能不那么频繁，但强度更大，某些地区的干旱可能更加频繁和严重。在地中海流域尺度的水文模拟显示，随着水供应量逐渐减少，到2100年，严重的洪水和长期干旱的风险增加的潜力，从而表明，现有的做法和政策的气候变化适应需要改进和更新。在这项研究的推动下，申请人已采取措施加强CC研究，从而评估了来自加拿大水文和水资源研究区域气候模型（RCM）REMO强迫集的数据，迄今为止取得了令人满意的结果。申请人还提出了一种用于每日GCM降水量的改进的偏差校正方法，该方法从根本上减少了校正引起的21世纪全球降水集合预测的不确定性。申请人最近利用最先进的区域气候模型数据集，对加拿大和欧洲流域进行了综合研究，将气候模型输出与极端事件的流域尺度建模联系起来，这表明CC对基本水文气象特征的定量影响是巨大的。申请人的研究建议的范围是提高对CC对水资源和极端情况影响的基本认识，主要目标：（a）通过水文应用提高对全球气候变化及其对洪水和干旱影响的认识，（B）开发和推广气候变化分析方法，（c）制作适合水资源应用和极端事件研究及其内在风险的新的高分辨率气候数据集，（d）为研究人员提供培训，传播信息、方法和成果。将在以下四项主要活动之后采用该方法：（1）在加拿大基础设施中采用非流体静力学区域协调机制;（2）改进偏差调整方法，将相关水文变量降到流域尺度;（3）评价十年尺度预测方案;（4）加拿大，特别是五大湖地区的水资源和水文极端情况应用设想。该建议的新奇在于高优先领域的研究（N.美国使用非流体静力学模式，开发和应用创新方法，评估十年尺度预测方案，以产生政策制定应用的时间演变预测）。更好地理解全球气候和当地水资源可用性和极端情况的跨尺度相互作用，将促进针对气候变化影响的缓解和适应措施。新的方法和数据集将进一步提升气候和水文科学，推动加拿大气候变化研究在学术、公共、工业和政府部门的发展。