Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Hydrological Extremes

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As demand for freshwater on a global scale rises, land use (LU) and climate change (CC) render its availability into the future uncertain. CC is expected to affect local water availability, river discharge, and the seasonal availability of water supply, thus making adaptation measures for water indispensable for a wide range of social and environmental aspects. In this context, the applicant has contributed to understanding the effects of CC on the hydrometeorological variables at global scale. His contributions includes analysis of global precipitation projections that indicates that today’s extreme events will intensify, i.e., precipitation on average is likely to be less frequent but more intense and droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in some regions. Hydrological modeling at watershed scale in the Mediterranean reveals the potential of an increased risk of severe flooding and prolonged droughts alongside a gradual decrease in water availability till 2100, thus suggesting that existing practices and policies for CC adaptation need to be improved and updated. Spurring from this research, the applicant has taken initiatives to enhance CC research that have led to the assessment of data derived from the Regional Climate Model (RCM) REMO forcing set for hydrological and water resources studies in Canada that have so far yielded satisfactory results. The applicant has also proposed an improved bias correction method for daily GCM precipitation that radically reduces the correction induced uncertainty of a global precipitation ensemble projection for the 21st century. Using state-of-the-art RCM datasets, integrated studies bridging climate model output and basin scale modeling for extreme events have recently been conducted by the applicant for Canadian and European watersheds, showing that the quantitative impact of CC in basic hydrometeorologic characteristics can be substantial. The scope of the applicant’s research proposal is the advancement of fundamental understanding of CC impact on water resources and extremes with the key objectives of: (a) improving understanding of global climate change and its effects on floods and droughts through hydrological applications, (b) developing and extending CC analysis methodologies, (c) producing new high resolution climatic datasets suitable for water resources applications and extreme event research as well as their inherent risks, (d) providing training to researchers and disseminate information, methodologies and results. The methodology to be carried out will follow four main activities: (1) Adoption of non-hydrostatic RCMs in Canadian infrastructure, (2) Improved Bias Adjustment Method to downscale relevant hydrological variables to basin scale, (3) Evaluation of the decadal–scale prediction scheme and (4) Scenarios for water resources and hydrological extremes applications in Canada and in particular the Great Lakes region. The novelty of this proposal resides with the research in high priority areas (high resolution climate datasets for N. America using non-hydrostatic models, development and application of innovative methodologies, evaluation of the decadal–scale prediction scheme to produce time-evolving predictions of policy development applications). The proposed research is expected to have significant impact on both scientific and policy level. Improved understanding of the cross scale interactions of global climate and local water availability and extremes will promote both mitigation and adaptation measures against the impacts of CC. New methodologies and datasets will elevate the science of climate and hydrology further, driving the development of Canadian CC Research within the academic, public, industrial and government sectors.