Towards More Resilient Transit Networks through Monitoring, Targeted Passenger Information and Dynamic Fleet Scheduling

通过监控、有针对性的乘客信息和动态车队调度，打造更具弹性的交通网络

• 批准号: RGPIN-2014-04911
• 负责人: Shalaby, Amer
• 金额: $ 2.48万
• 依托单位: University of Toronto
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Discovery Grants Program - Individual
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2014-01-01 至 2015-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=566824
• 关键词: Towards; More; Resilient; Transit; Networks

In the contemporary public transit world of acute fiscal constraints and crippling politics, passenger transit demand in Canadian cities has steadily outpaced the rate of network capacity building over the past few decades. For example, passenger volumes in the Yonge Subway line in Toronto have been on the rise for decades with virtually no capacity expansion in this corridor over the same time period. As a result, our transit systems have increasingly been operating at passenger demand levels very close and sometimes exceeding transit service capacity, which is not only inflicting regular delays on customers but also diminishing the ability of the transit system to absorb demand and supply variations and to maintain network operational continuity in the event of unexpected incidents. This latter issue is related to the notion of "Resilience", which is defined as the system’s ability to absorb shocks and continue operation without a major disruption or breakdown. The proposed research program has an overall goal of improving transit network resilience. First, it aims at enhancing our understanding of transit network resilience and the factors affecting it. To achieve this objective, we will develop an analytical framework to help transit companies analyze and identify network components posing the biggest threat to network resilience. The framework can be used effectively for planning transit network resilience explicitly and objectively. The research program also aims at developing new analytical tools to monitor in real time the current levels of network resilience and even predict such levels over the near future. This capability should enable transit companies to take both proactive and reactive actions to improve transit resilience. Furthermore, the proposed research program will develop strategies to disseminate information to users of the transit network with the objective of diffusing passengers away from most vulnerable parts of the network. Those strategies will define where, when and how information should be disseminated such that specific targets of passenger volumes are achieved at different parts of the network. Finally, the research program will develop strategies to respond to major system disruption, such as a subway line breakdown. The strategies will focus on dispatching buses from across the network to the affected parts and disseminating information to guide the affected passengers. The proposed research program is original, innovative and likely to have a transformative effect by causing a paradigm shift from the traditional focus on transit service reliability, with its emphasis on vehicle delays, into transit network resilience in which we place more emphasis on minimizing user delays.

在财政紧缩和政治瘫痪的当代公共交通世界中，过去几十年来，加拿大城市的客运需求稳步超过了网络容量建设的速度。例如，多伦多央街地铁线的客运量几十年来一直在增长，但同期该走廊的运力几乎没有扩张。因此，我们的交通系统越来越多地以非常接近乘客需求的水平运行，有时甚至超出了交通服务能力，这不仅给乘客造成经常性的延误，而且还削弱了交通系统吸收需求和供应变化以及在发生意外事件时保持网络运营连续性的能力。后一个问题与“弹性”的概念有关，“弹性”的定义是系统吸收冲击并在不发生重大中断或故障的情况下继续运行的能力。拟议的研究计划的总体目标是提高交通网络的弹性。首先，它旨在增强我们对交通网络弹性及其影响因素的理解。为了实现这一目标，我们将开发一个分析框架，帮助交通公司分析和识别对网络弹性构成最大威胁的网络组件。该框架可有效地用于明确、客观地规划交通网络的弹性。该研究计划还旨在开发新的分析工具来实时监控当前的网络弹性水平，甚至预测不久的将来的这种水平。这种能力应该使交通公司能够采取主动和被动行动来提高交通弹性。此外，拟议的研究计划将制定向公交网络用户传播信息的策略，目的是将乘客从网络中最脆弱的部分转移出去。这些策略将定义信息的传播地点、时间和方式，以便在网络的不同部分实现具体的客运量目标。最后，该研究计划将制定应对重大系统中断（例如地铁线路故障）的策略。这些策略将侧重于从整个网络调度公交车到受影响的地区，并传播信息以指导受影响的乘客。拟议的研究计划是原创的、创新的，并且可能会产生变革性的效果，通过引起范式转变，从传统的注重交通服务可靠性（重点是车辆延误）转变为交通网络弹性（我们更加重视最大限度地减少用户延误）。