"Vulnerability and Responses of Marine Populations, Communities and Ecosystems to Climate Change and Ocean Acidification"

气候变化和海洋酸化被认为是海洋生态系统变化的一些主要潜在驱动因素，通过渔业等生态系统服务的变化影响人类福祉。为了在气候变化和海洋生态系统下制定有效的海洋养护和管理政策，迫切需要确定最容易受到这种影响的生态系统及其组成部分，并制定科学可靠的未来变化情景。最近，在建立解释CC和OA的生物反应的基础理论以及开发模拟这些生物反应的建模工具方面取得了重大进展。然而，到目前为止，这些努力集中在CC和OA的影响，在生物体和人口的水平，而有一个很大的差距，我们在社区和生态系统水平的生物反应的理解。这就引出了两个研究问题： (1)不同物种的主要特征是什么，使他们有不同的脆弱性CC和OA？我们能用基本的生物学理论来预测它们的弱点吗？如果是，东北太平洋区域海洋鱼类和无脊椎动物的脆弱性是什么？ (2)在人口、社区和生态系统层面上对气候变化和有机农业的生物反应之间有哪些联系？在气候变化和有机农业情景下，海洋生态系统和生物多样性格局的预期变化是什么？根据CC和OA海洋生态系统影响评估模型制定的情景的不确定性程度如何？ 该计划将开发和应用一个创新的评估框架，评估海洋鱼类和无脊椎动物对CC和OA的脆弱性。此外，使用一系列的建模方法，该计划将研究确定海洋群落对CC和OA的生物反应的基本机制的假设。这些成果将有助于发展有效的基于生态系统的管理，以减轻和适应气候变化和有机农业的影响。

Climate change (CC) and ocean acidification (OA) are considered some of the major potential drivers of changes in marine ecosystems, affecting human wellbeing through changes in ecosystem services such as fisheries. To develop effective marine conservation and management policies under CC and OA, there is an urgent need to identify ecosystems and their components that are most vulnerable to such impacts, and develop scientifically robust scenarios of future changes. Recently, there have been major advances in establishing fundamental theories to explain biological responses to CC and OA, and development of modelling tools to simulate these biological responses. However, so far, these efforts focus on CC and OA effects at the organismal and population levels, while there is a large gap in our understanding of biological responses at community and ecosystem levels. This leads to two lines of research questions: (1) What are the major characteristics of different species that render them having different vulnerabilities to CC and OA? Can we use fundamental biological theories to predict their vulnerabilities? If so, what are the vulnerabilities of marine fishes and invertebrates in the Northeast Pacific region? (2) What are the linkages between biological responses to CC and OA at population, community and ecosystem levels? What are the expected changes in marine ecosystems and patterns of biodiversity under scenarios of CC and OA? What are the levels of uncertainties associated with scenarios developed from CC and OA impact assessment model for marine ecosystems? The program will develop and apply an innovative assessment framework for vulnerability of marine fishes and invertebrates to CC and OA. Moreover, using a range of modelling approaches, the program will examine hypotheses of underlying mechanisms determining biological responses of marine communities to CC and OA. The outcomes will contribute to developing effective ecosystem-based management to mitigate and adapt to CC and OA impacts.