Towards More Resilient Transit Networks through Monitoring, Targeted Passenger Information and Dynamic Fleet Scheduling

在当代公共交通领域，严重的财政限制和政治瘫痪，加拿大城市的客运需求在过去几十年中稳步超过网络容量建设的速度。例如，多伦多的Yonge地铁线的乘客量几十年来一直在上升，而同一时期这条走廊的容量几乎没有扩大。因此，我们的运输系统越来越多地在乘客需求水平非常接近，有时超过运输服务能力的情况下运营，这不仅给客户造成经常性的延误，而且还削弱了运输系统吸收需求和供应变化的能力，以及在发生意外事件时保持网络运营连续性的能力。后一个问题与“复原力”概念有关，其定义是系统吸收冲击并在不发生重大中断或故障的情况下继续运作的能力。拟议的研究计划的总体目标是提高公交网络的弹性。第一，旨在加深我们对公交网络弹性及其影响因素的理解。为实现这一目标，我们将制定一个分析框架，帮助公交公司分析和识别对网络弹性构成最大威胁的网络组件。该框架可以有效地用于明确和客观地规划公交网络弹性。该研究计划还旨在开发新的分析工具，以真实的时间监测网络弹性的当前水平，甚至预测在不久的将来的水平。这一能力应使过境公司能够采取主动和被动行动，提高过境复原力。此外，拟议的研究计划将制定战略，向公交网络的用户传播信息，目的是将乘客从网络中最脆弱的部分分散开来。这些战略将确定在何处、何时和如何传播信息，以便在网络的不同部分实现客运量的具体目标。最后，研究计划将制定战略，以应对重大系统中断，如地铁线路故障。这些战略将侧重于从整个网络向受影响地区派遣巴士，并传播信息以指导受影响的乘客。拟议的研究计划是原创的，创新的，并可能有一个变革性的影响，从传统的重点是公交服务的可靠性，其重点是车辆延误，到公交网络的弹性，我们把更多的重点放在最大限度地减少用户的延迟。

In the contemporary public transit world of acute fiscal constraints and crippling politics, passenger transit demand in Canadian cities has steadily outpaced the rate of network capacity building over the past few decades. For example, passenger volumes in the Yonge Subway line in Toronto have been on the rise for decades with virtually no capacity expansion in this corridor over the same time period. As a result, our transit systems have increasingly been operating at passenger demand levels very close and sometimes exceeding transit service capacity, which is not only inflicting regular delays on customers but also diminishing the ability of the transit system to absorb demand and supply variations and to maintain network operational continuity in the event of unexpected incidents. This latter issue is related to the notion of "Resilience", which is defined as the system’s ability to absorb shocks and continue operation without a major disruption or breakdown. The proposed research program has an overall goal of improving transit network resilience. First, it aims at enhancing our understanding of transit network resilience and the factors affecting it. To achieve this objective, we will develop an analytical framework to help transit companies analyze and identify network components posing the biggest threat to network resilience. The framework can be used effectively for planning transit network resilience explicitly and objectively. The research program also aims at developing new analytical tools to monitor in real time the current levels of network resilience and even predict such levels over the near future. This capability should enable transit companies to take both proactive and reactive actions to improve transit resilience. Furthermore, the proposed research program will develop strategies to disseminate information to users of the transit network with the objective of diffusing passengers away from most vulnerable parts of the network. Those strategies will define where, when and how information should be disseminated such that specific targets of passenger volumes are achieved at different parts of the network. Finally, the research program will develop strategies to respond to major system disruption, such as a subway line breakdown. The strategies will focus on dispatching buses from across the network to the affected parts and disseminating information to guide the affected passengers. The proposed research program is original, innovative and likely to have a transformative effect by causing a paradigm shift from the traditional focus on transit service reliability, with its emphasis on vehicle delays, into transit network resilience in which we place more emphasis on minimizing user delays.