Towards More Resilient Transit Networks through Monitoring, Targeted Passenger Information and Dynamic Fleet Scheduling

在财政紧张和政治瘫痪的当代公共交通世界中，加拿大城市的客运需求在过去几十年里稳步超过了网络能力建设的速度。例如，几十年来，多伦多Yonge Subway线路的客运量一直在上升，而这条走廊在同一时期几乎没有能力扩张。因此，我们的交通系统越来越多地在非常接近、有时超过过境服务能力的乘客需求水平下运行，这不仅给客户造成了经常性的延误，还削弱了交通系统吸收需求和供应变化以及在发生意外事件时保持网络运营连续性的能力。后一个问题与“复原力”的概念有关，“复原力”的定义是系统吸收冲击和继续运作而不出现重大中断或故障的能力。拟议的研究计划的总体目标是提高公交网络的弹性。首先，它旨在增进我们对公交网络复原力及其影响因素的了解。为了实现这一目标，我们将开发一个分析框架，帮助运输公司分析和识别对网络弹性构成最大威胁的网络组件。该框架可以有效地对公交网络弹性进行显式、客观的规划。该研究计划还旨在开发新的分析工具，以实时监控网络弹性的当前水平，甚至预测不久的将来的水平。这一能力应该使运输公司能够采取主动和被动的行动，以提高运输的复原力。此外，拟议的研究方案将制定战略，向公交网络的用户传播信息，目的是分散乘客，使其远离网络中最脆弱的部分。这些战略将确定在哪里、何时和如何传播信息，以便在网络的不同部分实现具体的客运量目标。最后，该研究计划将制定应对重大系统中断的策略，如地铁线路故障。这些策略将侧重于从整个网络向受影响地区派遣公交车，并传播信息以引导受影响的乘客。拟议的研究计划具有原创性、创新性，可能会产生变革性的影响，导致范式从传统的侧重于车辆延误的公交服务可靠性转变为注重最大限度减少用户延误的公交网络弹性。

In the contemporary public transit world of acute fiscal constraints and crippling politics, passenger transit demand in Canadian cities has steadily outpaced the rate of network capacity building over the past few decades. For example, passenger volumes in the Yonge Subway line in Toronto have been on the rise for decades with virtually no capacity expansion in this corridor over the same time period. As a result, our transit systems have increasingly been operating at passenger demand levels very close and sometimes exceeding transit service capacity, which is not only inflicting regular delays on customers but also diminishing the ability of the transit system to absorb demand and supply variations and to maintain network operational continuity in the event of unexpected incidents. This latter issue is related to the notion of "Resilience", which is defined as the system’s ability to absorb shocks and continue operation without a major disruption or breakdown. The proposed research program has an overall goal of improving transit network resilience. First, it aims at enhancing our understanding of transit network resilience and the factors affecting it. To achieve this objective, we will develop an analytical framework to help transit companies analyze and identify network components posing the biggest threat to network resilience. The framework can be used effectively for planning transit network resilience explicitly and objectively. The research program also aims at developing new analytical tools to monitor in real time the current levels of network resilience and even predict such levels over the near future. This capability should enable transit companies to take both proactive and reactive actions to improve transit resilience. Furthermore, the proposed research program will develop strategies to disseminate information to users of the transit network with the objective of diffusing passengers away from most vulnerable parts of the network. Those strategies will define where, when and how information should be disseminated such that specific targets of passenger volumes are achieved at different parts of the network. Finally, the research program will develop strategies to respond to major system disruption, such as a subway line breakdown. The strategies will focus on dispatching buses from across the network to the affected parts and disseminating information to guide the affected passengers. The proposed research program is original, innovative and likely to have a transformative effect by causing a paradigm shift from the traditional focus on transit service reliability, with its emphasis on vehicle delays, into transit network resilience in which we place more emphasis on minimizing user delays.