Predictability of Monthly and Seasonal Average Circulation of the Atmosphere

大气科学研究中非常令人兴奋的前沿之一是理解和扩大每月和季节时间尺度上的动态可预测性的范围。成功的扩展范围预测的潜在社会影响是巨大的。这项提议的主要目标是进行数值模拟和诊断研究，以调查大气月平均和季节平均环流的可预测性。这项研究的长期目标是调查陆地-海洋-大气耦合系统的可预测性。这项工作的重点是实用的，寻求建立一个数值模式，改编自国家气象中心(NMC)使用的业务版本，应该能够产生扩展范围的预报，并对这种模式进行测试。为了实现这一点，战略是利用单个组成部分(大气、海洋和陆地表面过程)的现实模式，并开展敏感性和可预测性研究，首先分别检查每个组成部分的可预测性，最终检查完全耦合的相互作用系统的可预测性。这一点很重要，因为它不仅将在大学研究界和国家气象中心之间提供一个重要的接口，而且还将允许开发更好的数据集，并提高国家气象中心的预测能力，使其超过目前约两周的限制。

One of the very exciting frontiers of research in atmospheric sciences is understanding and extending the limits of dynamic predictibility on monthly and seasonal time scales. The potential societal impact of successful extended range forecasting is enormous. The main objective of this proposal is to carry out numerical modeling and diagnostic studies to investigate the predictibility of the monthly and seasonally averaged circulation of the atmosphere. The longer term goal of the research is to investigate the predictibility of the coupled land-ocean-atmosphere system. The focus of the work is practical, seeking to put together a numerical model, adapted from the operational version used by the National Meteorological Center(NMC), that should be able to produce extended range forecasts, and to put such a model to test. To accomplish this, the strategy is to utilize realistic models of individual components (atmosphere, ocean, and land surface processes) and to carry out sensitivity and predictibility studies, first to examine the predictibility of each component separately, and ultimately to examine the predictibility of the fully coupled interactive system. This is important because it will not only provide a crucial interface between the university research community and the NMC, but also allow development of better data sets as well as improve NMC's forecast capabilities beyond the current limit of around two weeks.