Decisions Under Uncertainty: Source Dependence

这个项目研究的是个体如何在不确定的情况下实际做出决定。受访者将陈述根据事件确定的前景的现金等价物。然后，该项目将经验性地验证最近的决策公理模型，这些模型允许将对后果的态度与对风险和不确定性的态度分开，并且是在不一定具有明确定义的附加概率度量的事件上定义的。拟议的研究试图将风险态度描述为事件的函数(加权函数)，而不是将风险态度描述为效用曲线的函数的传统观点。为了了解人们对风险和不确定性的态度，提出了七项研究。研究的主要重点将是表征加权函数的性质，并了解不确定度来源与加权函数形状(即来源相关性)之间的关系。对实证工作的补充将是对额外约束或公理的研究，这些约束或公理是为权重函数指定函数形式所需的。

This project studies how individuals actually make decisions under uncertainty. Respondents will state cash equivalences for prospects defined over events. The project will then empirically validate recent axiomatic models of decision making which allow the separation of attitudes about consequences from attitudes about risk and uncertainty and which are defined over events that do not necessarily have a well-defined additive probability measure. The proposed research seeks to characterize risk attitudes as a function of the events(the weighting function) rather than the traditional view of characterizing risk attitudes as a function of the utility curve. Seven studies are proposed to understand people's attitudes about risk and uncertainty. The main focus of the studies will be to characterize properties of the weighting function and understand the relationship between the source of the uncertainty and the shape of the weighting function (i.e., source dependence.) Supplementing the empirical work will be a study of additional constraints, or axioms, needed to specify functional forms for the weighting function.