Theoretical and Empirical Study of Reasonable Doubt in Law

在过去的几年里， 法律和经济学的最佳执法。 总的来说这 研究强调理论建模，重点是 刑罚对犯罪行为的影响，抗辩权的影响 关于定罪的谈判，以及支出的影响， 被告避免起诉和定罪。 当模特们 都做出了重要贡献， 我强调，至少在某些犯罪范围内， 最大的惩罚是最有效的。 安德烈奥尼博士质疑这一假设，并认为， 如果更明确地说明， 采取的过程中，社会决定，被告 这个人应该受到惩罚。 他明确地强调了 合理怀疑，因为这一标准（即，证据是否 令人信服的“超越合理怀疑”）影响法官，陪审团， 和检察官进行辩诉交易 这项工作尤其 值得注意的是，结合理论建模，实地研究， 实验研究 他的实证研究将从 对埃利希关于核威慑作用的数据的重新分析 考虑到对角色的合理怀疑的惩罚 犯罪行为的游戏研究和实验陪审团 不同惩罚条件下的模拟。 这项研究的潜在收益是可观的。 以来 标准的最优惩罚模型不接受合理怀疑 考虑到，通过采取这一步骤（在直接模型下 合理怀疑，并根据一个模型， 法律的制度特点），这项工作提供了一个 欢迎新的犯罪和惩罚模型。 这种工作 具有开创性的重要性，因为它承诺将理论 和现实更接近。

Over the past number of years there has been considerable work in law and economics on optimal law enforcement. Overall this research has emphasized theoretical modelling focusing on the effects of penalties on criminal behavior, the effects of plea bargaining on convictions, and the effects of expenditures by defendants to avoid prosecution and conviction. While the models that have developed have made important contributions, they all have emphasized that, at least over some range of crimes, uniformly maximal penalties are most efficient. Dr. Andreoni questions this assumption and takes the view that much more can be learned about penalties if more explicit account were taken of the process by which society determines that an accused person deserves to be punished. He focuses explicitly on the role of reasonable doubt since this standard (i.e., whether evidence is convincing "beyond a reasonable doubt") influences judges, juries, and prosecutors engaged in plea bargaining. The work is especially noteworthy in combining theoretical modelling, field study, and experimental research. His empirical efforts will range from a reanalysis of the Ehrlich data on the deterrent effects of punishment taking into consideration reasonable doubt to role playing studies of criminal behavior and experimental jury simulations under varying penalty conditions. The potenial yield from this research is considerable. Since standard models of optimal penalty do not take reasonable doubt into account, by taking this step (under the straightforward model of reasonable doubt and under a model that also considers institutional features of the legal system), this work offers a welcome new approach to modelling crime and punishment. Such work is of pathbreaking importance because it promises to bring theory and reality much closer together.