Sensitivity of Hurricane Prediction to Initial Perturbations (Ensemble Forecasts) and Physical Initialization

虽然在预测飓风路径和强度方面，特别是在一到两天的范围内，已经取得了重大进展，但更长期的预测仍然需要改进。首席研究员和他的同事们将进行一项调查，研究通过使用集合预报来提前5天预测可能实现的改进。他们将集中在三个主要研究领域：(1)进一步开发和并行化用于预报的高分辨率区域模型，(2)测试一种开发用于集合预报的扰动的新方法，以及(3)与业务预报模型相比，采用物理初始化（主要是初始化降雨率）的FSU全球模型的整体预测技能评估。

9710336 Krishnamurti Although there have been significant advances in the forecasting of hurricane track and intensity, especially in the one-to-two day range, longer range forecasts are much in need of improvement. The principal investigator and his colleagues will conduct an investigation into the possible improvements that might be realized through the use of ensemble forecasting for predictions up to five days in advance. They will focus on three primary areas of research: (1) further development and parallelization of a very high resolution regional model for use in forecasting, (2) testing of a new method to develop the perturbations used in ensemble forecasting, and (3) evaluation of the overall forecast skill of the FSU global model which employs a physical initialization (primarily initializing rain rates) compared with operational forecast models.