Collaborative Research: Self-Organized Criticality, Blackouts and Disruptions in Power and Communication Systems

该奖项是根据探索性研究工程运输行业（ETI）计划征集。 美国依赖于其电力和通信系统基础设施的顺利运作。 为了最大限度地减少对这些复杂系统的干扰，有必要了解，预测和控制它们对外部扰动的反应。 自组织临界性（SOC）的概念将非线性动力学系统的自组织思想与许多自然现象中经常观察到的近临界行为结合在一起。 这项工作推进了对这些系统中自组织临界性的理解。 电力系统停电规模和互联网拥塞的时间序列的初步分析表明，长时间的相关性，这是一致的SOC行为的证据。 我们将扩大和深化这些实验数据的初步分析。 我们将开发和分析模拟模型捕捉SOC在电力系统和通信网络的影响。 初步工作提出了一个启发式的解释SOC在电力系统停电。 我们将通过分析模拟模型来测试和完善这个初步的启发式解释。 我们将确定电力系统停电和通信系统网络在其全球复杂动态中显示SOC的程度。

This award is made under the Exploratory Research on Engineering the Transport Industries (ETI) program solicitation. The United States depends on the smooth functioning of its electrical power and communication systems infrastructure. To minimize disruptions to these complex systems, it is necessary to understand, predict and control their responses to outside perturbations. The concept of self- organized criticality (SOC) brings together ideas of self-organization of nonlinear dynamical systems with the often observed near critical behavior of many natural phenomena. This work advances the understanding of self-organized criticality in these systems. The primary focus of work is electric power system blackouts and the secondary focus is disruptions in communication systems.Initial analyses of time series of power system blackout sizes and internet congestion show evidence of long time correlations, which are consistent with SOC behavior. We will expand and deepen these initial analyses of experimental data. We will develop and analyze simulation models capturing SOC effects in electric power systems and communication networks. Initial work suggests a heuristic explanation of SOC in electric power system blackouts. We will test and refine this initial heuristic explanation by analyzing simulation models. We will determine the extent to which electric power system blackouts and communication system networks show SOC in their global complex dynamics.