SGER: Reconnaissance Survey of the July 17, 2006 Central Javan Earthquake and Tsunami

该奖项资助了对2006年7月17日爪哇中部地震和海啸的侦察调查。据最新估计，海啸造成的死亡人数接近700人。这几乎是一个难以理解的数字，因为太平洋海啸预警中心（Pacific Tsunami warning Center）曾发出警告，而雅加达也收到了这一警告。1994年，爪哇东南部也发生了类似的地震，海啸造成的死亡人数约为200人（Synolakis et al ., 1994）。最初的媒体报道和当地科学家的一些估计表明，上升高度超过5米。通过现场观测来分析这一事件是很重要的，原因如下：1)早期的现场报告表明，影响区似乎是高度局部化的，一些科学家已经推测，这次近海地震可能引发了近海滑坡。需要像la Okal和Synolakis（2004）那样对淹没高度的分布进行量化，以帮助确定是否需要触发海底滑坡，以及是否迫切需要进一步开展近海海洋地质工作。国际海啸信息中心列表服务器上已经发布了至少7个带有累积投影的动画。收集高质量的洪水测量数据将建立一个高质量的数据集，从而使社区能够推断不同模型的预测能力，并评估它们在洪水测绘和业务预测方面的潜在用途。这是有史以来第一次公开发布和分享如此多的初步调查前预测。模型验证是可靠预测未来海啸影响的重要一步。拟议的工作具有重要的广泛影响：1)需要了解2006年海啸造成的不相称的死亡人数（与主震的规模相比），特别是考虑到最初报告的淹没距离相当小，以及1994年发生在附近的“类似”事件的影响较小。2)应急管理的缺陷——如果确实如《时代周刊》（2006年7月20日）所指出的那样——需要加以确认。正如所建议的那样，中央政府收到了PTWC的警报，但由于警报只提到了地震而没有海啸信息，因此警报没有传播到地方当局。需要更多关于应急准备水平的资料，特别是在这一地区，因为它是爪哇最热门的旅游目的地之一。这些信息将有助于识别美国和世界各地应急计划中可能存在的缺陷。

This award funds a reconnaissance survey of the July 17, 2006 Central Javan earthquake and tsunami. The most recent estimate of the human toll from the tsunami is approaching 700. This is a nearly incomprehensible number, given that there was a warning issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center and the warning was received in Jakarta. Also, a similar earthquake struck in 1994 in Southeast Java, with a death toll from the tsunami of about 200 (Synolakis et al, 1994). Initial media reports and some estimates from local scientists relate runup heights in excess of 5m.It is important to analyze this event through field observations, for the following reasons:1) Early reports from the field suggest that the impact zone seems to be highly localized, and some scientists have already speculated that the offshore earthquake may have triggered an offshore landslide. The distribution of inundation heights needs to be quantified a la Okal and Synolakis (2004) to help clarify whether a submarine landslide needs to be invoked and whether further offshore marine geology work is urgently needed.2) At least seven animations with runup projections have been posted on the InternationalTsunami Information Center list-server. Collecting high quality inundation measurements will build a high quality data set that will then allow the community to infer the predictive capability of different models and evaluate their potential uses for inundation mapping and operational forecasts. This is the first time ever that so many initial pre-survey predictions have been publicly posted and shared. Model validation is an important step to credible predictions of the impact of future tsunamis.The proposed work has significant broader impacts:1) The incommensurate death toll of the 2006 tsunami (compared to the size of the parentearthquake) needs to be understood, particularly in view of the fairly small initially reported inundation distances, and the lesser impact of the "similar" 1994 event which struck close by.2) The shortcoming of emergency management - if indeed they occurred as suggested by TIME (July 20, 2006) - need to be identified. As suggested, the central government had received the PTWC warning, but the warning was not disseminated to local authorities because the warning mentioned the earthquake only and had no tsunami information. More information is needed on the level of emergency preparedness, particularly in this area which is one of the top tourist destinations in Java. Such information will help identify possible deficiencies in emergency plans in the US and around the world.