Doctoral Dissertation Improvement Grant: Socio-ecological analysis and modeling of Q'eqchi' Maya Milpa Agriculture in Toledo District, Belize

研究生肖恩S.唐尼将在J.斯蒂芬兰辛博士的监督下，调查伯利兹托莱多区Q'eqchi' Maya milpa农业的社会网络结构、生态和经济。人类和自然系统耦合中相互作用的历史模式迄今为止还知之甚少。玛雅农业社区与米尔帕农业的关系特别微妙，因为它涉及到农业系统的复杂的等级和共同管理模式，这种模式既植根于生存经济，也植根于市场经济。由于其悠久的历史和理解玛雅社会的历史动态的重要性，米尔帕农业已被广泛研究，并提出了六个合理的假设来解释这个耦合系统的特征。这些假设在不同的尺度上解决了这个问题，从市场波动的短期影响，劳动力需求或国家干预到生态学家C.S. Holling的适应性周期概念。唐尼将在五个Q'eqchi'村庄进行广泛的实地调查，在那里他将进行家庭访谈，并采访当地领导人。他将与一位生态学家合作，为这些村庄周围的米尔帕田地绘制一幅地理信息系统地图，并收集土壤样本。这些数据将使用尖端的空间显式基于代理的建模技术进行分析。在托莱多区的人口，生态和经济周期的观察接地的适应性周期有望测试其效用解释一个真实的人类系统的动态，并可能有助于解释Q'eqchi'玛雅milpa农业的长期弹性。

Graduate student Sean S. Downey, supervised by Dr. J. Stephen Lansing, will investigate the social network structure, ecology and economics of Q'eqchi' Maya milpa agriculture in the Toledo District, Belize. Historical patterns of interaction in coupled human and natural systems are as yet poorly understood. The relationship of Maya farming communities to milpa agriculture is particularly subtle because it involves complex patterns of hierarchical and common-pool management of an agricultural system that is embedded in both subsistence and market economies. Because of its long history and importance for understanding the historical dynamics of Maya societies, milpa agriculture has been extensively studied and half a dozen plausible hypotheses have been advanced to explain features of this coupled system. These hypotheses address the problem at different scales, from the short-term effects of market fluctuations, labor requirements or State interventions to the idealized behavior of a generalized model of the system framed in the context of ecologist C.S. Holling's concept of adaptive cycles. Downey will conduct extended fieldwork in five Q'eqchi' villages where he will conduct household interviews, and interview local leaders. He will collaborate with an ecologist to create a GIS map of the milpa fields surrounding these villages and to collect soils samples. These data will be analyzed using cutting-edge spatial explicit agent-based modeling techniques. Grounding the adaptive cycle in observations of the demographic, ecological, and economic cycles in the Toledo District promises to test its utility for explaining the dynamics of a real human system, and may help explain the long-term resilience of Q'eqchi' Maya milpa agriculture.