Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction and Understanding

这项研究涉及大范围的季节内和季节性飓风研究和预测。 方法是经验/统计的。研究的三个领域是：（1）改进大西洋盆地飓风的扩展季节性预测;（2）改进大西洋飓风活动的季节内（月到月）预测;（3）改进美国飓风登陆的概率预测。 主要重点仍然是预测大西洋盆地的季节性热带气旋活动。 大西洋盆地季节性飓风统计预报的发展导致发现了飓风与全球气候特征之间的物理关系，如果没有预测的目的，这些关系可能不会被发现。随着最近综合观测/模拟再分析数据集的发展，沿着新的卫星信息，出现了新的研究机会。 更广泛的影响：PI的季节性和月度飓风预报被保险机构、媒体和公众使用。他的团队的预测往往会引起公众对即将到来的飓风季节及其可能造成的生命和财产损失的关注。季节性预报和登陆概率预报的持续改进有利于美国沿海地区的各种利益。

This research is related to extended range intra-seasonal and seasonal hurricane research and forecasting. The approach is empirical/statistical. The three areas of research are (1) improvement of extended range seasonal Atlantic basin hurricane prediction; (2) improvement of intra-seasonal (month-to-month) prediction of Atlantic hurricane activity; (3) improvement in probability forecasts for U.S. hurricane landfall. The primary focus continues to be on predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity. The development of statistical Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts has led to the discovery of physical relationships between hurricanes and global climate features that would likely not have been uncovered without the purpose of prediction. With the recent development of integrated observational/modeled reanalysis data sets, along with new satellite information, new research opportunities have become available. The PI is uncovering many new physical relationships involving Atlantic cyclones and hurricanes.Broader Impacts: The PI's seasonal and monthly hurricane forecasts are used by insurance agencies, the media and the general public. His team's forecasts tend to bring the public's attention to the upcoming hurricane season and its potential for loss of both life and property. The continued improvement of both seasonal forecasts and landfall probability forecasts are beneficial to a variety of U.S. coastal interests.