Applications of The Self Control/Dual Self Model in Economics

决策理论是经济分析的基础。标准模型是一个经济决策者，他对随机事件有明确的偏好，可以用概率信念来表示，并采取行动最大化数值效用函数的期望，其中不同日期的奖励以几何递减的权重进行折扣。该模型已被证明在分析大规模行为方面非常有效，特别是在宏观经济学以及增长和商业周期波动的研究中。另一方面，有许多已知的小的异常：拉宾和阿莱悖论和双曲贴现现象，等等。此外，人们不仅对自己的回报有偏好，而且有时出于利他主义，有时出于恶意地关心他人的回报，心理学家对异常行为特别感兴趣，特别是在实验室中，经济学家和心理学家都开发了许多行为经济学模型来解释这些不同的悖论。然而，这些模型在很大程度上是不一致的，彼此之间也不一致。这个项目的目标是研究双重自我/自我控制模型作为一个单一的一致的框架，在其中协调所有这些方面的行为。双重/自我自我控制模型有很长的历史，开始作为计划者-实干家模型，并继续通过现代公理模型的自我控制。该项目建议建立在德鲁·福登伯格和我开发的一个特定模型上，在这个模型中，自我控制问题的产生是由于满足决策理论标准公理的长期耐心自我和满足决策理论标准公理但只关心时刻的短期冲动自我之间的冲突。这个模型的动机是双曲贴现现象，但在我们的初步工作中，我们表明，两个自我之间的冲突导致非经典的行为，对风险的态度有重要的影响。特别是该模型不仅能够解释双曲贴现，但也拉宾悖论的风险厌恶。这个项目的目标是检查该模型在多大程度上可以调和额外的矛盾或非标准行为：阿莱悖论;利他主义和怨恨;认知负荷的影响等。我们希望整合更好的心理账户模型，并解释成瘾等问题。然而，与此同时，我们希望保持在大范围内观察到的长期行为。该理论将理论和数值方法与实验室实验和数据分析相结合，有许多应用，包括人们为什么愿意为帮助特定的个人而不是减少统计风险支付这么多钱的问题;在资产市场上观察到的溢价;以及冒险和赌博等多种行为。

Decision theory is the foundation for economic analysis. The standard model is one of an economic decision maker who has well defined preferences over random events that can be represented by probabilistic beliefs and acts to maximize the expectation of a numerical valued utility function in which rewards at different dates are discounted with geometrically declining weights. This model has proven very effective in analyzing behavior in the large, especially in macroeconomics and the study of growth and business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, there are many known anomalies in the small: the Rabin and Allais paradoxes and the hyperbolic discounting phenomenon, among others. In addition people have preferences not only for their own rewards, but sometimes altruistically and sometimes spitefully care about the rewards of others.Psychologists have been especially interested in anomalous behavior, especially in the laboratory, and both economists and psychologists have developed a number of behavioral economics models designed to explain these various paradoxes. However these models are largely inconsistent with each other and with behavior in the large. The goal of this project is to study the dual self/self control model as a single consistent framework in which to reconcile all these aspects of behavior.The dual/self self-control model has a long history, starting as the planner-doer model and continuing through modern axiomatic models of self-control. The project proposes to build on a particular model developed by Drew Fudenberg and me. In this model self-control problems arise due to conflict between a long-run patient self who satisfies the standard axioms of decision theory and a short-run impulsive self who also satisfies the standard axioms of decision theory, but cares only about the moment. This model is motivated by the hyperbolic discounting phenomenon, but in our preliminary work we showed that the conflict between the two selves results in non-classical behavior that has important implications for attitudes towards risk. In particular the model is capable not only of explaining hyperbolic discounting, but also the Rabin paradox of risk aversion. The goal of this project is to examine the extent to which the model can reconcile additional paradoxical or non-standard behavior: the Allais paradox; altruism and spite; the impact of cognitive load and others. We want to incorporate better models of mental accounting, and also explain things such as addiction. Yet at the same time we wish to preserve the overlying long-run behavior observed in the large. The proposal combines theoretical and numerical methods with laboratory experiments and the analysis of data.The theory has many applications, including the puzzle of why people are willing to pay so much more to help a specific named individual than to reduce statistical risk; the premiums observed in asset markets; and diverse behavior such as risk-taking and gambling.