SGER: Perceived Risk and Compliance with a Mandatory Evacuation Order

苏珊·韦勒博士（德克萨斯大学医学分支，加尔维斯顿）和罗伯塔·贝尔博士（南佛罗里达大学）将探讨加尔维斯顿居民对飓风风险的看法。 这项研究的重点是谁没有遵守强制性飓风疏散令，以及民防当局谁发出命令的人之间的风险认知。2008年9月11日，飓风艾克逼近时，政府向加尔维斯顿岛发布了强制疏散令。但当风暴来袭时，大约40%的人口没有撤离。风暴产生了约13英尺的巨浪，岛上大部分地区被淹没。该研究采用定性方法（深入的开放式人种学访谈），以了解“强制性”疏散的原因、动机和信念，为什么人们遵守或不遵守，他们下次可能会做什么，为什么，以及他们希望别人知道什么。该研究的假设是，在那些撤离和没有撤离的人之间，以及在那些发出撤离命令的人和那些对这些命令作出反应和不作出反应的人之间，对风险的理解可能存在差异。最终目标是了解发布强制疏散命令的人和预期对其作出反应的公众之间对风险的理解是否存在重要差异。虽然墨西哥湾沿岸和东海岸地区夏季有飓风造成自然灾害的风险，但由于可能发生恐怖分子，特别是生物恐怖袭击，整个美国都有一定程度的风险。人口对强制性疏散规则的反应（和不反应）提出了一个问题，即人口是否遵守任何基于风险估计的强制性命令。

Dr. Susan Weller (University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston) and Dr. Roberta Baer (University of South Florida) will explore Galveston residents' perceptions of hurricane risk. This study focuses on risk perceptions among people who did and did not comply with a mandatory hurricane evacuation order, as well as the civil defense authorities who issued the order. On September 11, 2008, a mandatory evacuation order was issued for Galveston Island as Hurricane Ike approached. But when the storm hit, approximately 40 percent of the population had not evacuated. The storm produced a surge of approximately 13 feet, and inundated much of the island. The study uses qualitative methods (in-depth open-ended ethnographic interviews) to elicit reasons, motives, and beliefs about what a "mandatory" evacuation means, why people did or did not comply, what they might do next time and why, and what they would like others to know when given a mandatory order in the future. The study's hypothesis is that there may be differences in understanding of risk between those who did and did not evacuate and also between those who give evacuation orders and those who do and do not respond to such orders. The ultimate goal is to understand whether there are important differences in the understanding of risk between those who issue mandatory evacuation orders and the public who is expected to respond to them. While Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard areas carry summer time risk of a natural disaster due to a hurricane, the entire United States carries some degree of risk due to a possible terrorist, specifically a bioterrorist attack. Population response (and non-response) to mandatory evacuation rules raises a question about population compliance with any mandatory order based on estimations of risk.