Developing a Generalized Storyline that Organizes the Supports for Evidence-based Modeling of Long-Term Impacts of Disturbances in Complex Systems

探索研究K-12计划（DRK-12）旨在通过研究和开发创新资源，模型和工具（RMT），显着提高学前班学生和教师的科学，技术，工程和数学（STEM）的学习和教学。DRK-12计划中的项目建立在STEM教育的基础研究和先前的研究和开发工作的基础上，这些研究和开发工作为拟议项目提供了理论和经验依据。该项目将支持学生开发基于证据的解释干扰对复杂系统的影响。该项目将侧重于中学环境科学学科在生命，地球和物理科学的核心思想。 在干扰生态学中，有各种各样的复杂系统原理在起作用。该项目作为一个起点，支持学生协调不同的信息来源，分析干扰对系统组件的直接和间接影响，并检查组件之间的相互联系，以预测系统是否会恢复平衡（弹性）或系统是否会改变成一个新的状态（滞后）。这些复杂系统的原理同样可以应用于其他科学现象，比如体内平衡和传染病的传播。 该项目将把卢基略长期生态研究（LTER）的兴奋带到波多黎各以外的教室，并特别强调芝加哥的低绩效，低收入，高少数民族学校。超过6000名学生将直接受益于参与研究计划。这些单元将被纳入到埃尔云克之旅网站，以便在整个芝加哥公立学校和LTER网络中传播。这些单元将提交给Achieve网络进行审查，从而将覆盖范围扩大到全国各地的教师。该项目将通过关于故事情节发展的在线课程对科学教师和课程设计者产生影响。该项目旨在提高学生参与证据论证的能力，并解决文献中确定的重大挑战，即评估证据的能力。研究人员还将展示如何在低绩效学校实施下一代科学标准方面取得进展。通过基于网络的平台，这些结果可以在许多其他学区复制。研究人员将使用LTER计划的科学背景来开发一个通用的故事情节模板，用于使用基于证据的建模来教授干扰生态学的基本原理。通过与CPS中学教师的共同设计过程，研究人员将通过开发和评估干扰生态学的三个单元-一个生命科学，一个地球系统科学和一个物理科学，来测试学习原则在广义故事情节模板中的应用。通过任务分析，研究人员已经确定了三个关键领域的支持，为学生成功地解释系统将如何响应干扰。首先，学生需要能够记录证据的方式，将引导他们发展自己的解释。因果模型图在过去已经成功地用于组织证据，但很少有人知道学生如何使用因果图来发展解释。第二，已经有各种各样的支架开发，以支持科学论证的评估，但很少有人知道如何支持学生组织他们的证据，以产生科学的论点。第三，基于证据的建模和科学论证不是按照处方就能成功完成的任务。学生需要建立一个任务模型，以了解他们从事特定任务的原因，以及该任务将如何有助于解释的主要目标。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

The Discovery Research K-12 program (DRK-12) seeks to significantly enhance the learning and teaching of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) by preK-12 students and teachers, through research and development of innovative resources, models and tools (RMTs). Projects in the DRK-12 program build on fundamental research in STEM education and prior research and development efforts that provide theoretical and empirical justification for proposed projects. This project will support students to develop evidence-based explanations for the impact of disturbances on complex systems. The project will focus on middle school environmental science disciplinary core ideas in life, Earth, and physical sciences. There are a wide variety of complex systems principles at work in disturbance ecology. This project serves as a starting point on supporting students to coordinate different sources of information to parse out the direct and indirect effects of disturbances on components of a system and to examine the interconnections between components to predict whether a system will return to equilibrium (resilience) or the system will change into a new state (hysteresis). These same complex systems principles can be applied to other scientific phenomena, such as homeostasis and the spread of infectious disease. This project will bring the excitement of Luquillo Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) to classrooms outside of Puerto Rico, and has a special emphasis on low performing, low income, high minority schools in Chicago. Over 6000 students will directly benefit from participation in the research program. The units will be incorporated into the Journey to El Yunque web site for dissemination throughout Chicago Public Schools (CPS) and the LTER network. The units will be submitted for review at the Achieve network, thus extending the reach to teachers around the country. The project will impact science teachers and curriculum designers through an online course on storyline development. This project aims to improve students' ability to engage in argument from evidence and address what the literature has identified as a significant challenge, namely the ability to evaluate evidence. Researchers will also demonstrate how it is possible to make progress on implementing Next Generation Science Standards in low performing schools. Through the web-based platform, these results can be replicated across many other school districts.Researchers will to use the scientific context of the LTER program to develop a generalized storyline template for using evidence-based modeling to teach basic principles of disturbance ecology. Though a co-design process with middle school teachers in CPS, researchers will test the application of learning principles to a generalized storyline template by developing and evaluating three units on disturbance ecology - one life science, one Earth system science, and one physical science. Through a task analysis, researchers have identified three key areas of support for students to be successful at explaining how a system will respond to a disturbance. First, students need to be able to record evidence in a manner that will guide them to developing their explanation. Causal model diagrams have been used successfully in the past to organize evidence, but little is known about how students can use their causal diagrams for developing explanations. Second, there have been a wide variety of scaffolds developed to support the evaluation of scientific arguments, but less is known about how to support students in organizing their evidence to produce scientific arguments. Third, evidence-based modeling and scientific argumentation are not tasks that can be successfully accomplished by following a recipe. Students need to develop a task model to understand the reason why they are engaged in a particular task and how that task will contribute to the primary goal of explanation.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.