CNH-S: NNA: Modeling Risk from Black Carbon in a Coupled Natural-Human System at the Arctic Ice Edge

北极的变暖速度是全球平均水平的两倍多，对生态系统、野火、基础设施和土著居民的生计产生了负面影响。与此同时，这种“北极放大”可能对航运等北极产业产生潜在的积极影响。对海冰范围的估计表明，下一个世纪北极将不再有冰，但更近期的预测是不确定的，这明显增加了航运基础设施投资的风险（和所需的回报）。尽管存在这种不确定性和随之而来的风险，但在不久的将来，跨极地航线可能与苏伊士运河竞争的早期投资和政策规划正在进行中。这一转变将对航运成本、全球和国家竞争力、多国财政以及商业和军事资产的部署产生深远影响。可以想象，北极航运的早期采用者可以使这一未来更加接近：当地船舶交通中沉积在冰上的煤烟（黑碳）已被确定为北极放大的贡献者，因为沉积在冰上的煤烟吸收了太阳的热量，加速了冰的融化。这种反馈可能会加速海上通道的开放，但也会增加每年航运季节的差异，增加不确定性。 因此，如果金融分析师假设海冰以可预测的线性方式消退，他们可能会低估航运季节长度变化的成本，这反过来可能会影响投资行为和风险承担。本项目探讨如何在环境和地缘政治变化下对北极航运进行风险评估，以纳入黑碳沉积放大的风险。为了回答这个问题，该项目试图了解海洋-大气-冰动力学、航运可达性、风险-金融-交通动力学和黑碳排放之间的相互关系。鉴于海冰预测的不确定性在某种程度上是不可减少的，这就需要一种能够描述不确定性的系统方法。对大气过程、海冰和海洋热传递之间的耦合动力学进行创新性模型模拟，将限制地方和全球黑碳源的作用。对风险管理和感知的深入了解将产生对航运量和相关黑碳排放的精确估计。将产生的科学成果将传播给美国和国外的从业者和政策制定者。 此外，该项目还将通过为参与该项目的教育机构的学生开设冬季课程，培养新一代跨学科研究人员和专业人士，帮助新一代为快速变化的北极和世界做好准备。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Warming in the Arctic has occurred at more than twice the global average, with negative impacts on ecosystems, wildfires, infrastructure and Indigenous livelihoods. At the same time, this "Arctic amplification" may yield potentially positive impacts on some Arctic industries, such as shipping. Estimates of sea ice extent project an ice-free Arctic over the next century, but more near-term projections are uncertain, notably increasing the risk (and required return) of investments in shipping infrastructure. Despite this uncertainty and the attendant risks, early investments and policy planning are underway for a not-so-distant future in which a transpolar shipping route might be competitive with the Suez Canal. This transformation would have far-reaching effects on shipping costs, global and national competitiveness, the finances of multiple countries, and the deployment of commercial and military assets. Early adopters in Arctic shipping could conceivably bring this future closer: soot (black carbon) deposited on the ice from local ship traffic has been identified as a contributor to Arctic amplification, since the soot deposited on ice absorbs heat from the sun, accelerating ice melt. This feedback might accelerate the opening of sea lanes, but also increase the year-to-year shipping season variance, increasing uncertainty. As such, if financial analysts assume sea ice retreats in a predictably linear fashion, they likely underestimate the cost of variation in shipping season length, which may in turn affect investment behavior and risk-taking.This project asks how risk assessments of Arctic shipping under environmental and geopolitical change can incorporate the risk of amplification from black carbon deposition. To answer this question, the project seeks to understand the reciprocal relationships among ocean-atmosphere-ice dynamics, shipping accessibility, risk-finance-traffic dynamics, and black carbon emissions. Given that uncertainties in sea ice projections are to some extent irreducible, this necessitates a systems approach that can characterize uncertainties. Innovative model simulations of the dynamics of coupling between atmospheric processes, sea ice, and ocean heat transfer will constrain the role of local and global sources of black carbon. Grounded insights on risk management and perception will produce refined estimates of shipping volumes and associated black carbon emissions. The scientific output that will be produced will be disseminated to practitioners and policy-makers in the US and abroad. The project will additionally, train a new generation of interdisciplinary researchers and professionals by running a winter session class for students from the educational institutions involved in the project to help prepare a new generation for a rapidly-changing Arctic and world.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.