NNA Track 1: Arctic impacts and reverberations of expanding global maritime trade routes

航行新北极(NNA)是NSF的十大想法之一。NNA项目解决了快速变化的北极地区汇聚的科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大区域和全球的经济、安全和韧性提供信息。NNA增强了新的研究伙伴关系，从地方到国际范围，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，并整合了共同生产的知识。这一奖项部分实现了这一目标。随着北极融化，预计会有新的资源勘探机会和新贸易路线的开通。通过这些路线的商品的增加以及北极的相关工业化将既带来机遇，也带来风险。这将需要国际协议和治理规则来维护全球稳定，不仅保护美国北极的商业可行性，而且保护当地人民、环境和自然资源。北极的这些新机遇产生了影响，在全球范围内产生了影响。该项目侧重于创建所需的数学、地球物理、计算和社会知识体系，以了解不断变化的北极如何影响世界贸易流动和供应链，并了解北极自然和社会生态系统和治理面临的风险。这项研究支持美国的国家安全利益，解决全球经济福利问题，并有助于提高对北极社区面临的新威胁的适应能力，同时允许北极的可持续发展和经济增长。教育和外联活动包括利用多媒体向学术和非学术领域的多个受众传播研究成果。此外，调查人员计划与当地利益攸关方进行对话，并举办国际研讨会。最后，该项目促进促进和保留工程学领域的妇女和代表性不足的少数群体，包括阿拉斯加土著居民。该项目开发最先进的数值模式，以增强高分辨率海冰预测系统，以预测北极海冰厚度、冰脊稳定性、风暴潮和结冰对船舶构成的风险。为了支持海洋基础设施和提高沿海复原力，还将开发基于各种尺度的北极沿海动态的模型。改进学习和减少风险行为的创造性方法被纳入对预期增加的海上交通和相关商业活动的风险管理的评估。信息共享的本土办法将与当代参与性数据收集技术相结合，以制定冲突的早期预警迹象。与当地社区共同生产知识将提供有助于在不确定条件下的决策模式的见解，这些见解将在与当地利益攸关方的讲习班中得到验证。最后，从随机和稳健优化到博弈论的各种技术被用来开发可扩展的、全局收敛的算法。研究人员的目标是产生一种解决方案方法，可以利用冰物理、沿海动态和社会/治理洞察力的风险预测来预测随着时间的推移通过北极航道的预期货运量，以及替代世界贸易路线和供应链上的交通流量的相应变化。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, and integrates the co-production of knowledge. This award fulfills part of that aim. As the Arctic thaws, new opportunities for resource exploration and the opening of new trade routes are expected. Increased passage of commodities through these routes and the related industrialization of the Arctic will introduce both opportunities and risks. These will require international agreements and rules of governance to maintain global stability and protect not only the commercial viability of the U.S. Arctic, but also the local peoples, environment, and natural resources. These new opportunities in the Arctic have impacts that reverberate across the globe. This project focuses on creating the mathematical, geophysical, computational, and social knowledge systems needed to understand how the changing Arctic impacts world trade flows and supply chains and to understand the risks to the Arctic's natural and social ecosystems and governance. The research supports U.S. national security interests, addresses global economic welfare, and facilitates greater resilience to new threats to Arctic communities while allowing for sustainable Arctic development and economic growth. Educational and outreach activities include the use of multimedia to disseminate findings to multiple audiences, both academic and non-academic. Also, the investigators plan to conduct dialogues with local stakeholders and conduct international workshops. Lastly, the project fosters the promotion and retention of women and underrepresented minorities in engineering, including native Alaskans. This project develops state-of-the-art numerical models to enhance a high-resolution sea-ice forecasting system to predict Arctic sea ice thickness, ice ridge stability, storm surges, and risks posed to ships from icing. To support maritime infrastructure and improve coastal resilience, models based on arctic coastal dynamics at a variety of scales will also be developed. Creative approaches to improve learning and risk reduction behavior is incorporated into an assessment of risk management from the anticipated increase maritime traffic and related commercial activity. Indigenous approaches to information sharing will be combined with contemporary participatory data collection techniques to develop early warning signs for conflict. Co-production of knowledge with local communities will provide insights that can contribute to models of decision-making under conditions of uncertainty and these will be validated in workshops with local stakeholders. Finally, a variety of techniques ranging from stochastic and robust optimization to game theory are used to develop scalable, globally convergent algorithms. The investigators aim to generate a solutions method that can exploit risk predictions from ice physics, coastal dynamics, and social/governance insights to forecast expected cargo traffic through Arctic passageways over time, along with corresponding changes to traffic flows along alternative world trade routes and supply chains.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.