Coping with Compounding Risk and Uncertainty: A Longitudinal Study of Cascading Collective Stress in a Probability-Based-US Sample

自2020年新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来，美国人一直在应对一系列看似没完没了的不断升级的压力因素，包括通胀和经济不稳定、社会动荡、极端的党派之争、与气候有关的灾难(如洪水、飓风、野火)、全球不稳定(如乌克兰战争)以及对负责保护公众的科学和社会机构缺乏信心。这种复杂或连锁的集体压力/创伤是大批人所经历的威胁，通常通过媒体传播给距离事件较远的人。对这些史无前例的连锁集体创伤的直接和基于媒体的暴露可能会对美国居民的心理和身体健康产生深远影响。随着时间的推移，这些复合暴露对情绪、认知和行为的长期影响仍然未知。2020年，该研究团队在新冠肺炎大流行之初，从NORC ameriSak小组中启动了一项基于大概率的全国代表性样本超过6,500名美国居民的研究，受访者在3年内接受了四次评估。利用这个预先存在的样本，这个新项目继续研究人们在暴露于复合集体应激源时的反应，同时应对个人层面的压力和创伤。另外四项调查(2023年春季、2024年春季、2025年春季和紧接着一次未知的集体创伤)和一项随机实验评估了受访者对项目期间发生的复合危机的心理(例如认知和情感风险认知、情绪)和行为(例如保护性和亲社会行为)的反应。具体地说，该项目与NORC合作，力求跟踪全国有代表性的、基于概率的6500名预先招募参与者的样本。小组成员在新冠肺炎大流行开始之前提供了心理和身体健康数据。该项目的初始数据是在2020年3月至4月在美国大流行的最初几周收集的；在这项新研究之前的3年里，受访者接受了四次调查。另外四项调查和一项随机实验评估了受访者对项目期间发生的复杂集体危机的心理(例如，认知和情感风险认知、情绪)和行为(例如，保护性和亲社会行为)的反应。该项目通过考虑随着时间的推移对个人和集体创伤的直接和基于媒体的暴露，来检查暴露和对压力和创伤的反应的变异性。调查评估了3年来暴露于复合和级联集体创伤、共同发生的个人急性和慢性压力、风险认知、媒体使用、情绪反应和自我保护行为。该项目有三个目标：(1)研究自2020年初以来暴露于复合集体创伤(例如，大流行、气候灾害)与心理(例如，痛苦、世界观、认知和情感风险认知)和行为(例如，保护行为、公民参与)反应之间的关系；(2)研究个人创伤暴露(终身，最近)是否缓和了复合集体创伤暴露与心理/行为反应之间的联系，以及(3)检查与集体应激源相关的个人压力程度是否缓和了复合集体创伤暴露对心理/行为反应的影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Since 2020, when the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic began, Americans have been coping with a seemingly endless series of escalating stressors, including inflation and economic instability, social unrest, extreme partisanship, climate-related disasters (e.g., flooding, hurricanes, wildfires), global instability (e.g., war in Ukraine), and low confidence in the scientific and social institutions tasked with protecting the public. Such compounding or cascading collective stress/traumas are threats experienced by large groups of people that are often transmitted via the media to people geographically distal to the event. Direct and media-based exposure to these unprecedented cascading collective traumas are likely to have profound effects on the mental and physical health of U.S. residents. The long-term emotional, cognitive, and behavioral implications of these compounding exposures over time remain unknown. In 2020 this research team initiated a study among a large probability-based nationally representative sample of over 6,500 U.S. residents from the NORC AmeriSpeak panel at the very beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and respondents were assessed four times over 3 years. Using this preexisting sample, this new project continues to examine how people respond when exposed to compounding collective stressors while simultaneously coping with individual-level stress and trauma. Four additional surveys (Spring 2023, 2024, 2025, and immediately after a yet unknown collective trauma) and a randomized experiment assess respondents' psychological (e.g., cognitive and affective risk perception, emotions) and behavioral (e.g., protective and prosocial behavior) responses to the compounding crises that occur during the project period. Specifically, in collaboration with NORC, this project seeks to follow a nationally representative probability-based sample of 6,500 pre-recruited participants. Panelists provided mental and physical health data before the COVID-19 pandemic began. Initial data for this project were collected in March-April 2020 during the early weeks of the pandemic in the U.S.; respondents have been surveyed four times in the 3 years prior to this new research. Four additional surveys and a randomized experiment assess respondents' psychological (e.g., cognitive and affective risk perception, emotions) and behavioral (e.g., protective and prosocial behavior) responses to compounding collective crises that occur during the project period. This project examines variability in exposure and response to stress and trauma by accounting for both direct and media-based exposures to individual-level and collective traumas over time. Surveys assess exposure to compounding and cascading collective traumas, co-occurring individual acute and chronic stress, risk perceptions, media use, emotional responses, and self-protective behaviors over 3 years. The project has three aims: (1) Examine how exposure to compounding collective traumas since early 2020 (e.g., pandemic, climate disasters) is associated with psychological (e.g., distress, world views, cognitive and affective risk perceptions) and behavioral (e.g., protective behaviors, civic engagement) responses; (2) Examine whether exposure to individual trauma (lifetime, recent) moderates the association between compounding collective trauma exposure and psychological/behavioral responses, and (3) Examine whether degree of personal stress related to collective stressors moderates the impact of compounding collective trauma exposure on psychological/behavioral responses.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.