Interdisciplinary Studies on the Global Rice Consumption Promotion Strategies

全球稻米消费促进策略的跨学科研究全球稻米需求的萎缩给稻米生产带来了巨大的压力。对亚洲农业来说，这确实是一个危急的局面。在本研究中，每个亚洲国家的大米现状，对2050年的大米消费进行了三种情景的模拟。本研究的研究结果如下：1。2000年代以来，世界人均大米消费量（PCRC）以每年0.6%的速度下降。如果这种情况继续下去，到2050年，PCRC将达到58.9公斤。如果这个下降的速度增加一倍或三倍，那么PCRC将小到52.7公斤或46.2公斤。到2050年，全球大米消费总量将达到5.35亿吨，以最小的速度下降，其次是4.79亿吨和4.18亿吨，分别以两倍和三倍的速度下降。IRRI（2003）估计为2025年，这比本研究中最保守的估计高出7%。国际水稻研究所可能会高估。亚洲大多数国家对大米消费的研究很少，加强这方面的研究很重要。大米消费量的减少最终会迫使亚洲个别国家国内生产大米，严重依赖大米的亚洲农业可能会恶化，并失去与非亚洲地区农业的竞争力。这也可能推迟亚洲农村地区贫困状况的改善。日本政府应该采取主动，鼓励亚洲其他国家利用ODA资金开展大米消费和食品教育研究。

Interdisciplinary Studies on the Global Rice Consumption Promotion StrategiesThe shrinking demand for rice in the world has been putting an enormous pressure on rice production. This is indeed approaching a critical situation for Asian agriculture. In this research, the current rice situation in each individual Asian country, simulations for rice consumption toward 2050 with 3 scenarios were conducted. The findings in this study are as follows :1. Per capita rice consumption (PCRC) in the world has been declining by 0.6% annually in the 2000s.2. If this situation continues, PCRC would be 58.9kg by 2050.3. If this declining rate doubles or triples, then the PCRC would be as small as 52.7kg or 46.2kg, individually.4. Total global rice consumption would be 535 million tons in 2050 with the smallest assumption of declining rate followed by 479 million tons and 418 million tons with doubled and tripled declining rates, respectively.5. The IRRI (2003) estimated for 2025, and this is 7% greater than the most conservative estimate in this research. An overestimate by the IRRI might be a possibility.6. Very few researches on rice consumption are done in the most Asian countries, and it is important to enhance researches in this area.7. The declining rice consumption eventually force domestic production of rice in individual Asian nations, and the Asian agriculture which depends on rice heavily may get deteriorated and lose competitiveness against the agriculture in Non-Asian areas. This may also delay improvement of poverty in the Asian rural areas.8. Japanese government should take the initiative and encourage other Asian nations to develop researches on rice consumption and food education using the ODA fund.