STUDY ON EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM DUE TO PLATE-BOUNDARY GIGANTIC EARTHQUAKE

应急管理系统将在南开地震和东海地震等下一次大地震中发挥关键作用。首先，大型海啸将袭击面向太平洋的西海岸。特别是，海啸洪水对地势低洼、人口密集的沿海城市地区非常危险，因为我们已经开发了带有购物中心和地铁的地下空间。进行了数值模拟，发现了海啸淹没地下空间的过程。结果表明，泄洪流量取决于堤防断裂点到地下空间入口位置的距离。对于海啸和风暴潮洪涝灾害，采用KJ法进行应急管理的项目数约为115个。这一数字比地震灾害中的数字还要大。因此，灾害阶段的渐变取决于淹没深度，与地震灾害相比，区域可以使洪水灾害的应急管理更加有效。在风险管理中，我们通常将其分为硬对策的缓解和软对策的准备。从损害阶段的角度来看，这一定义必须转变为可接受风险和可容忍风险的定义。

Emergency management system will play a key role for next gigantic earthquakes such as Nankai earthquake and Tokai earthquake. First of all, large tsunamis will hit the western coast facing the Pacific. Especially, tsunami flooding is very dangerous at low-lying coastal urban areas with dense population because we have developed underground space with shopping mall and subways. We did numerical simulation and found the inundation process of tsunami flooding into underground space. It was found that the inundation discharge depends on the distance between breaking point of levee and location of entrance of underground space. In the case of tsunami and storm surge flood disaster, the number of items in emergency management is about 115 with KJ method. This number is larger than that in the earthquake disaster. Therefore, gradual change of disaster stages depends on inundation depth and areas can make emergency management be effective for the flood disasters in comparison with that for earthquake disaster. In the risk management, we usually divide it into mitigation with hard-countermeasures and preparedness with soft countermeasures. This definition has to be change to definition of acceptable risk and tolerable risk from the view points of damage stage.