Model development for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors

本研究的目的是开发一套动态和/或空间可计算一般均衡（DCGE/SCGE）模型的综合评估全球变暖的政策，特别是关注交通部门。研究结果如下：1.本研究调查了1吨CO2的单位社会成本，估算为7，000日元/吨CO2。本研究建立了一个动态可计算一般均衡（DCGE）模型来综合评价全球变暖政策，特别关注交通部门，该模型是动态的，包含了储蓄和投资，并引入了汽车拥有量变量，以明确分析各种政策对汽车拥有量和汽车使用量的影响。通过基于上述模型进行模拟，结果表明，第一，实现2010年CO2减排目标（比1990年排放水平增加17%）所需的碳税水平为85，000/CO2，第二， ...更多信息 与目前相比的增加额（相当于62，000日元/CO2的燃料税）为5，000亿日元/年，最终，这些价值主要取决于燃料价格弹性的价值。4.本研究发展一个静态空间可计算一般均衡模型，以综合评估全球暖化政策，特别注意交通部门和土地使用管制。并将其应用于岐阜都市圈，说明土地利用管制在其收益和成本比较方面并不一定有效.本研究开发了另一个静态空间可计算一般均衡（SCGE）模型，特别关注国际货运部门，但尚未进行任何模拟，以评估全球变暖政策，这是剩余的任务之一。本研究对诺德豪斯的DICE模型进行了修正，首先采用王朝模型将人口内生化，其次评价标准为效率、同代内公平和不同代间公平。基于修正后的模型，本文对最优税收、1990年水平调控和2.5C上调三种政策进行了比较。这表明，最有效率的税收政策是最好的，不仅效率，而且这两个意义上的公平。少

This study aims to develop a set of dynamic and/or spatial computable general equilibrium (DCGE/SCGE) models for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors. The study result can be summarized as follows :1.This study surveys the unit social cost of 1 CO2 ton and estimates it as \7,000 per CO2 ton.2. This study develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors, which is dynamic to include the saving and investment, and has a variable of car-ownership in order to explicitly analyze the impacts of various policies on the car-ownership and car-usage.3. By carrying out a simulation based on the models mentioned above, it turns out that first, the carbon tax level necessary to achieve the CO2 reduction target of 2010 that is the 17 % up over the emission level of 1990 is \ 85,000/CO2, second, its annual welfare loss in … More crease over the present (\62,000/CO2 equivalent fuel tax) is \500 billion/year, finally, those value crucially depends on the value of fuel price elasticity.4. This study develops a static spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) models for comprehensive evaluation of global warming policies with special attention to transportation sectors and land use regulations. And its application to Gifu metropolitan region implies that land use regulation is not necessarily efficient in terms of its benefits and cost comparison.5. This study develops another static spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model with special attention to international freight transportation sectors although it does not yet carry out any simulation for evaluation of global warming policies, which is one of the remaining tasks.6. This study modifies DICE model by Nordhaus in such a way, first, that population be endogenous by applying dynasty model, second, that evaluation criteria be efficiency, equity within the same generation and equity between different generations. Based on the modified model this study compares three policies of optimal tax, 1990 level regulation and 2.5 C up regulation. It shows that the most efficient tax policy is best not only efficient but also both meanings of equity. Less