Forcast and Evaluation of Introduction effects of Transportation Demand Management

本研究试图预测和评估交通需求管理（TDM）的引入效果。本年度，利用问卷调查和个人出行调查两种方式获得的陈述偏好（SP）数据和显示偏好（RP）数据，对模式选择模型进行了估计。利用估计的模型，对引入一些时分复用方案的效果进行了预测。具体分析如下：(1)基于个人出行数据，详细分析了驾驶员的通勤行为。特别分析了上下班方式选择与上班后出行行为的关系。利用交叉聚集分析得到的知识，估计出通勤的模式选择模型。(2)在大阪都市圈进行问卷调查的基础上，分析了驾驶员对几种TDM方案的模式选择反应。考虑的TDM计划包括泊车转乘（P & R）、亲亲转乘（K & R）、道路收费和引入高占用车道（HOV）。分别估计了解释驾驶员对这些方案响应的模式转换模型。(3)利用(2)估计的模型，计算了政治变量（如道路收费或使用P & R停车场）改变时的转换率。根据研究结果，分析了方案的引入对道路交通需求的影响。(4)从访谈调查到正在推出一些可能导致交通需求减少的有趣方案的办公室，分析了该方案的优点、缺点、接替条件以及取消方案的原因。

This study attempts to forcast and evaluate the introduction effects of Transportation Demand Management (TDM). In this year, using Stated Preference (SP) data and Revealed Preference (RP) data got from both questionnaire survey and Person-Trip (PT) survey, the mode choice model was estimated. By using the model estimated, forcasting the effect of introducing some TDM schemes was attempted. In detall, following analyzes were made.(1)Based on the Person-Trip data, drivers'commuting behavior were analyzed in detail. Particullary, the relationship between mode choice on commuting and travel behavior after beginning the work was analyzed. By the knowledge got from cross-aggregation analyzes, the mode choice model on commuting was estimated.(2)Based on the questionnaire survey conducted in Osaka Metropolitan Area, drivers response on mode choice to some TDM schemes was analyzed. The TDM schemes cnsidered were Park and Ride (P & R), Kiss and Ride (K & R), Road Pricing and High Occupancy Lane (HOV) introduction. Mode conversion models for explaining drivers response to these schemes were estimated respectively.(3)By using the model estimated on (2), the conversion ratio was calculated when the political variables (ex.the fare of road pricing or using P & R car parks) were changed. By the results, change of the traffic demand on road by introducing these schemes was analyzed.(4)From the interview survey to the offices that were introducing some interesting schemes that might lead to the deduction of traffic demand, the advantages, disadvantages, terms for succession as well as the reasons if the scheme was canceled, were analyzed.