Honeybee population dynamics: Integrating the effects of factors within the hive and in the landscape

目前在欧洲和北美，人们普遍关注蜜蜂的健康和生存，一些国家的蜂群数量出现了毁灭性的下降，这归因于各种原因（疾病;管理;杀虫剂暴露等）。蜜蜂为可持续农业中的农作物和野生植物提供重要的授粉服务。蜂产品，如蜂蜜、蜂蜡和蜂胶，也有很大的国际市场。因此，如果我们要预测蜜蜂未来的健康和生存，就必须全面了解蜜蜂对疾病、寄生虫和迅速变化的环境的反应。这种理解是至关重要的通知蜂巢和景观管理策略，以确保人口的可持续性可以保持。生活在农业景观中的蜜蜂必须对饲料供应随时间和空间的突然变化做出反应，同时应对各种疾病，寄生虫和景观管理（如暴露于农药）造成的其他潜在压力。大多数以前的研究都集中在疾病，寄生虫或蜂箱管理对蜜蜂的影响;或觅食资源的影响。这个由Rothamsted和沃里克HRI与先正达合作开展的联合项目采用了一种基于生态系统的新方法，将可能影响蜜蜂生存的不同因素结合起来，使用建模工具来预测不同景观和不同条件下的情况，并探索因素之间的相互作用。A）我们将首先对我们可用的大量数据集和模型中的模式进行系统调查和评估，这些数据集和模型涉及蜜蜂群体对病原体（例如病毒），寄生虫（例如瓦螨）和其他害虫的生长和生存。我们还将整理和开发预测觅食分布的模型。B）集中在模式分析中最可能重要的因素，然后我们将开发一个新的基于个体的模型，通过结合疾病或寄生虫负荷、景观类型和资源可用性的潜在相互作用来预测菌落生长和存活。这个综合模型将建立测试的假设，蜜蜂群体的生长和生存可以预测的病原体和寄生虫的综合影响和景观因素，如食物供应的影响。C）将进行旨在测量疾病和饲料可用性之间相互作用的田间试验，以测试模型并验证输出。这些实验的结果和建模将使我们深入了解疾病和资源相关因素对蜜蜂在耕地景观中生存的不同意义，并使我们能够预测蜜蜂对农业实践或疾病阈值变化的反应。在应对影响世界各地蜜蜂种群的挑战方面，我们并不孤单。与其他研究相反，我们的建议是将通常单独的学科整合起来，研究蜂房外的觅食行为，并研究蜂房内蜜蜂的影响，以提供一个实用的工具，使我们能够预测蜂群将如何在各种作物景观中的觅食模式和蜂群生长方面做出反应。该项目旨在利用申请人之前由BBSRC资助的工作，该工作研究了景观对蜜蜂觅食行为和生存的影响。这项工作将大大提高我们预测和操纵农业实践和养蜂管理对这些重要和经济上重要的授粉者的影响的能力。

There is currently widespread concern about the health and survival of honeybees in both Europe and North America, and there have been devastating declines in the number of colonies in several countries, which have been ascribed to a variety of causes (disease; management; pesticide exposure etc). Bees provide an essential pollination service for crops and wild plants in sustainable agriculture. Bee products, such as honey, wax and propolis also have a substantial international market. It is therefore essential that we develop a comprehensive understanding of bees' responses to diseases, parasites and the rapidly changing environment if we are to predict their future health and survival. This understanding is vital for informing hive and landscape management strategies to ensure that the sustainability of populations can be maintained. Bees living in agricultural landscapes must respond to sudden changes in forage availability over time and space whilst dealing with a variety of diseases, parasites and other potential stressors resulting from management of the landscape (such as exposure to pesticides). Most previous studies have focussed either on the effect of disease, parasites, or hive management on bees; or on the influence of foraging resources. This joint project, between Rothamsted and Warwick HRI in partnership with Syngenta, takes a novel ecological systems-based approach of combining the different factors that are likely to affect honeybee survival, using modelling tools to allow prediction in different landscapes and under different conditions, and allowing the exploration of interactions between factors. A) We will firstly do a systematic survey and assessment of patterns within the substantial datasets and models that are available to us on honeybee colony growth and survival in response to pathogens (e.g. viruses), parasites (e.g. Varroa destructor mites) and other pests. We will also collate and develop models that predict forager distributions. B) Focusing on the factors most likely to be important from the pattern analysis, we will then develop a new individual-based model to predict colony growth and survival by incorporating the potentially interacting effects of disease or parasite load, landscape type and resource availability. This integrated model will be built to test the hypothesis that honeybee colony growth and survival can be predicted from the combined influence of pathogens and parasites and the effects of landscape factors such as food availability. C) Field experiments designed to measure the interaction between disease and forage availability will be performed to allow the model to be tested and the outputs to be verified. The results of these experiments, and the modelling, will provide us with an insight into the varying significance of disease and resource-related factors on the survival of bees in arable landscapes, and allow us to predict the bees' response to changes in farming practices or disease thresholds. We are not alone in addressing the challenge of what is affecting honeybee populations across the world. In contrast to other studies - our proposal is to integrate the usually separate disciplines of studying foraging behaviour outside the hive with what is affecting the bees within the hive in order to provide a practical tool which should enable us to predict how bee colonies will respond in terms of foraging patterns and colony growth in a variety of cropped landscapes. This project aims to capitalise on previous BBSRC-funded work by the applicants, which has examined the effects of landscapes on bee foraging behaviour and survival. This work will substantially increase our ability to predict and manipulate the impacts of agricultural practices and beekeeping management on these essential and economically important pollinators.