Modelling systems for managing bee disease: the epidemiology of European Foulbrood

这个项目将提供一个步骤的变化，在我们的理解管理传粉者疾病。我们将使用一个组合的建模和分子的方法来调查欧洲犯规育雏（EFB）的动态作为一个范例的地方性育雏病的蜜蜂殖民地使用历史数据来自长期监测的养蜂场在英格兰和威尔士。我们将利用统计，分析和空间明确的建模程序来解决这个问题。统计建模方法将用于确定疾病流行病学中涉及的假定协变量（例如土地使用、天气、管理做法）（纽卡斯尔）;将使用分析建模方法调查传播过程在确定疾病流行病学方面的作用（沃里克&巴斯）;和空间明确的模型，以调查不同的实际控制措施的效果的背景下，（沃里克&纽卡斯尔）。建模将使用历史数据集进行参数化，其中包括英格兰和威尔士（Fera）蜜蜂养蜂场EFB分布的时间和报告的发病率。基于微卫星标记和比较基因组学的分子方法将被用来检测宿主和寄生虫的多样性（Fera & Bath），作为统计、分析和空间明确模型中的额外协变量，探索EFB与宿主抗性相关的流行病学。这些数据将用于测试和验证理论模型和空间明确模型。我们（Fera & Bath）与剑桥的桑格中心合作，已经完成了M.冥王星。这些数据将极大地促进识别合适的标记物，用于表征大的和有代表性的群体样品，也将阐明负责毒力的基因，以及致病机理如何在蜜蜂宿主中进行。EFB将提供一个范例，我们可以测试对其他授粉疾病。例如，开发的模型将用于调查在5000个养蜂场收集的14种蜜蜂疾病的流行病学，作为Defra资助的正在进行的监测计划（Fera）的一部分。项目成果的传播在项目框架内是明确的，包括编制一份关键最终用户名单、利益攸关方讲习班、一年两次的项目通讯、行业文献报告、疾病管理摘要文件和出席会议。该项目开发的建模、分析和空间明确的模型将作为工具，指导管理和野生传粉者面对过多疾病威胁时的战略。

This project will provide a step-change in our understanding of managed pollinator disease. We will use a combined modelling and molecular approach to investigate the dynamics of European Foul Brood (EFB) as an exemplar of endemic brood disease of honey bee colonies using historic data derived from long-term monitoring of apiaries in England and Wales. We will utilise a program of statistical, analytical and spatially explicit modelling to address the problem. Statistical modelling approaches will be used to identify putative covariates involved in the epidemiology of disease (e.g. land use, weather, management practices) (Newcastle); analytical modelling approaches will be used to investigate the role of transmission processes in determining the epidemiology of disease (Warwick & Bath); and spatially explicit models to investigate spatial spread of disease in the context of investigating the efficacy of different practical control measures (Warwick & Newcastle). The modelling will be parameterised using historic datasets which include the timing and reported incidence of EFB distribution in honey bee apiaries across England and Wales (Fera). Molecular approaches based on microsatellite markers and comparative genomics will be employed to characterise host and parasite diversity (Fera & Bath) for use as additional covariates in the statistical, analytical and spatially explicit models exploring the epidemiology of EFB in relation to host resistance. These data will be used for the testing and validation of the theoretical and spatially explicit models. We (Fera & Bath) have, in collaboration with the Sanger centre in Cambridge, already generated a draft genome sequence for M. plutonius. These data will greatly facilitate the identification of suitable markers for the characterisation of large and representative population samples and will also shed light on the genes responsible for virulence, and how pathogenesis proceeds in the bee host. EFB will provide a paradigm which we can test against other pollinator diseases. For example, developed models will be used to investigate the epidemiology of 14 honey bee diseases collected across 5000 apiaries as part of an ongoing Defra funded monitoring programme (Fera). Dissemination of project results is explicit within the project framework and includes, the production of a list of key end-users, stakeholder workshops, bi-annual project newsletters, reporting in industry literature, a disease management summary document and conference attendance. The modelling analytical and spatially explicit models developed within this project will act as tools to guide strategy in the face of a plethora of disease threats for managed and wild pollinators.